Toluca vs Tigres Prediction

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The main thing

    🔥 Toluca, one of the frontrunners in the Mexican football championship, are set to face Tigres on their home turf. This upcoming clash is part of the third round of Liga MX. It promises to be an exciting encounter, as the visitors have a chance to overtake the "Red Devils" with a win. But can they pull it off? Or will the home favorites live up to their status? Check out our editorial's prediction for this matchup!

    Head-to-Head

    The last official match between the teams took place in May and ended with Toluca securing a 3-0 victory. Here's a comparative breakdown of the statistics from that encounter (Toluca were the home side):

    • possession percentage: 61% vs 39%;
    • corner kicks: 2 vs 5;
    • fouls: 12 vs 9;
    • yellow cards: 3 vs 2;
    • shots on target: 7 vs 1.

    📊Statistical preview of official encounters between Toluca and Tigres:

    • 51 matches played;
    • home wins: 26, away wins: 13, draws: 12;
    • goals scored: 72 for the hosts, 58 for the visitors;
    • average goals in the first half: 0.94, in the second half: 1.61;
    • average total goals per match: 2.55.

    H2H Stats Matches and Previous Teams Results

    50%
    28 Wins
    23%
    13 Draws
    27%
    15 Wins
    Total games
    56
    Total Goals Avg
    2.55
    Both teams scored
    50%
    1.39
    Total average
    1.16
    1.77
    Yellow cards
    1.95
    Last matches
    31.05.26
    CONCACAF CL
    Toluca
    Toluca
    Tigres UANL
    Tigres UANL
    -
    -
    4
    5
    20
    12
    2
    1
    1
    1
    0
    0
    0
    0
    1
    1
    6
    5
    -
    -
    4
    5
    20
    12
    2
    1
    18.01.26
    Primera Division
    Tigres UANL
    Tigres UANL
    1
    Toluca
    Toluca
    0.32
    0.67
    3
    3
    16
    26
    2
    4
    0
    0
    0
    0
    0
    0
    0.32
    0.67
    3
    3
    16
    26
    2
    4
    15.12.25
    Primera Division
    Toluca
    Toluca
    1
    Tigres UANL
    Tigres UANL
    1
    11.83
    9.8
    9
    2
    17
    16
    3
    2
    2
    1
    1
    1
    1
    0
    0
    0
    9
    8
    11.83
    9.8
    9
    2
    17
    16
    3
    2
    12.12.25
    Primera Division
    Tigres UANL
    Tigres UANL
    Toluca
    Toluca
    1
    0.54
    0.38
    8
    0
    14
    13
    2
    2
    1
    0
    0
    0
    1
    0
    0.54
    0.38
    8
    0
    14
    13
    2
    2
    27.07.25
    Primera Division
    Toluca
    Toluca
    Tigres UANL
    Tigres UANL
    1.47
    1.46
    7
    0
    15
    8
    5
    3
    3
    4
    1
    3
    2
    1
    1.47
    1.46
    7
    0
    15
    8
    5
    3
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    Toluca Team Overview

    Toluca's last match was against Club América in the Mexican Super Cup, where they secured a 3-1 victory.

    Here are the match statistics (Toluca vs Club América):

    • possession percentage: 43% vs 57%;
    • corners: 3 vs 3;
    • fouls: 19 vs 17;
    • yellow cards: 4 vs 3;
    • shots on target: 3 vs 1.

    Toluca are confidently sitting atop the Liga MX standings, having secured the maximum points (six out of six) in the first two rounds. This success is driven by their powerful attacking line and solid performances at home. Over the last ten matches, the team have claimed six victories, showcasing an average scoring rate of 2.2 goals per game. It's important to highlight that Toluca consistently generate dangerous opportunities in front of the opponent's goal, thanks to their aggressive tactics and effective midfield control. 

    Match Results: Toluca

    Last matches
    31.05.26
    CONCACAF CL
    Toluca
    Toluca
    Tigres UANL
    Tigres UANL
    -
    -
    4
    5
    20
    12
    2
    1
    1
    1
    0
    0
    0
    0
    1
    1
    6
    5
    -
    -
    4
    5
    20
    12
    2
    1
    W
    10.05.26
    Primera Division
    Pachuca
    Pachuca
    Toluca
    Toluca
    1.83
    0.81
    1
    6
    9
    9
    2
    0
    2
    0
    1
    0
    1
    0
    1.83
    0.81
    1
    6
    9
    9
    2
    0
    L
    07.05.26
    CONCACAF CL
    Toluca
    Toluca
    Los Angeles
    Los Angeles
    1
    -
    -
    3
    2
    9
    7
    1
    1
    4
    0
    0
    0
    4
    0
    -
    -
    3
    2
    9
    7
    1
    1
    W
    04.05.26
    Primera Division
    Toluca
    Toluca
    Pachuca
    Pachuca
    0.72
    1.45
    10
    4
    10
    14
    1
    2
    0
    1
    0
    1
    0
    0
    0.72
    1.45
    10
    4
    10
    14
    1
    2
    L
    30.04.26
    CONCACAF CL
    Los Angeles
    Los Angeles
    Toluca
    Toluca
    -
    -
    1
    4
    13
    13
    2
    2
    2
    1
    0
    0
    2
    1
    -
    -
    1
    4
    13
    13
    2
    2
    L
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    Tigres UANL Team Overview

    Tigres faced Juarez in the last round of Liga MX and secured a 1-0 victory.

    Here are the match statistics (Tigres vs Juarez):

    • possession: 64% vs 36%;
    • corner kicks: 5 vs 2;
    • fouls: 16 vs 14;
    • yellow cards: 3 vs 3;
    • shots on target: 10 vs 1.

    Tigres sit seventh in the Liga MX standings. The team employs a cautious strategy, focusing on counterattacks and solid defense, which enables them to perform well even against strong opponents. This is evidenced by just one loss in their last nine matches, showcasing the resilience of the Monterrey-based squad.

    Match Results: Tigres UANL

    Last matches
    31.05.26
    CONCACAF CL
    Toluca
    Toluca
    Tigres UANL
    Tigres UANL
    -
    -
    4
    5
    20
    12
    2
    1
    1
    1
    0
    0
    0
    0
    1
    1
    6
    5
    -
    -
    4
    5
    20
    12
    2
    1
    L
    10.05.26
    Primera Division
    Guadalajara Chivas
    Guadalajara Chivas
    Tigres UANL
    Tigres UANL
    1
    1.64
    0.46
    13
    1
    13
    19
    1
    3
    2
    0
    0
    0
    2
    0
    1.64
    0.46
    13
    1
    13
    19
    1
    3
    L
    06.05.26
    CONCACAF CL
    Tigres UANL
    Tigres UANL
    Nashville
    Nashville
    -
    -
    6
    5
    11
    11
    1
    2
    1
    0
    0
    0
    1
    0
    -
    -
    6
    5
    11
    11
    1
    2
    W
    03.05.26
    Primera Division
    Tigres UANL
    Tigres UANL
    Guadalajara Chivas
    Guadalajara Chivas
    1.83
    0.69
    4
    4
    15
    7
    4
    1
    3
    1
    1
    1
    2
    0
    1.83
    0.69
    4
    4
    15
    7
    4
    1
    W
    29.04.26
    CONCACAF CL
    Nashville
    Nashville
    Tigres UANL
    Tigres UANL
    -
    -
    7
    4
    13
    12
    1
    3
    0
    1
    0
    1
    0
    0
    -
    -
    7
    4
    13
    12
    1
    3
    W
    Empty
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    Latest news

    Toluca

    In the upcoming match, the hosts will be without Hugo Gonzalez, Helinho, and Marcel Alejandro Ruiz due to injuries.

    Notably, during the current transfer window, Toluca have strengthened their squad with the additions of Nicolas Castro, Pau Lopez, Mauricio Isaís, and Fernando Arce.

    Tigres UANL

    The visitors will be without Jesus Alberto Angulo and Raphael Guerreiro due to injuries in the upcoming match.

    It's worth noting that Tigres have bolstered their squad this summer with the additions of Angel Correa, Antonio Carrera, Fernando Tapia, and Ivan Lopez.

    Prediction for the 1st half

    Head-to-Head:

    • Total encounters - 51;
    • First-half wins for the home team - 8; for the away team - 3; draws - 13;
    • Average first-half total: 0.94;
    • Today's home team averages 0.49 goals, while the visitors average 0.45.

    First-Half Stats: Toluca (home) vs Tigres (away)

    • Matches played in the tournament: 1 vs 0;
    • Wins: 1 (100%) vs 0 (0%);
    • Losses: 0 (0%) vs 0 (0%);
    • Draws: 0 (0%) vs 0 (0%);
    • Average goals scored: 3 vs 0;
    • Average goals conceded: 1 vs 0.

    Last 10 Matches (Overall):

    • Wins: 4 vs 1;
    • Losses: 1 vs 1;
    • Draws: 5 vs 8;
    • Average first-half total: 1.9 (scored - 1.1, conceded - 0.8) vs 0.4 (scored - 0.2, conceded - 0.2).
    Trends
    • Toluca scores in the first half in 14 of their last 16 matches.
    • Toluca finds the net in the first half in 13 of their last 15 matches (Liga MX).
    • Toluca scores in the first half at home in 9 of their last 10 matches (Liga MX).
    👉Prediction: 1st half, Toluca to score goal (odds: 1.79)

    Outcome Prediction

    Head-to-Head Matches:

    • Number of encounters - 51;
    • Home wins - 26, Away wins - 13, Draws - 12.

    Statistics: Toluca vs Tigres

    • Matches played in the tournament: 2 vs 1;
    • Wins: 2 vs 1;
    • Win percentage: 100% vs 100%;
    • Losses: 0 vs 0;
    • Draws: 0 vs 0.

    Last 10 Matches:

    • Wins: 6 vs 3;
    • Losses: 1 vs 2;
    • Draws: 3 vs 5.
    Trends
    • Tigres have covered a +1.5 handicap in 12 of their last 14 away games.
    • Tigres have covered a +1.5 handicap in 8 of their last 9 matches (Liga MX).
    👉Prediction: Tigres UANL Handicap (+1.5) (Odds: 1.28)

    Total Goals Prediction

    Head-to-Head Matches

    • Average goals scored by home team - 1.41, away team - 1.14;
    • Average total goals in head-to-head matches - 2.55;
    • Both teams scored: overall - 25 times; at home team's ground - 13 times.
    Trends
    • The total has gone over 2.5 goals in 6 of the last 7 head-to-head matches at the home ground (Liga MX).
    👉Prediction: Total goals Over (2.5) (Odds: 1.79)

    Corners Prediction

    Toluca: Statistics

    • Season: average total in the tournament - 5.5; at home - 7;
    • Last 10 matches: average total - 4; at home - 4.2.

    Tigres: Statistics

    • Season: average total in the tournament - 5, away - 0;
    • Last 10 matches: average total - 4.7; away - 4.5.
    Trends
    • Tigres have taken more than 4.5 corners in 13 of their last 14 matches (Liga MX).
    👉Prediction: Corners - Tigres UANL Total Over (4.5) (Odds: 2.01)

    Cards Prediction

    Head-to-Head Matches

    • Average total yellow cards in head-to-head matches - 3.22 (1.61 for the home team and 1.61 for the away team);
    • Average total yellow cards at the home ground - 3.59 (1.42 for the home team and 2.17 for the away team).

    Toluca: Statistics

    • Season: average total in the tournament - 3.5; at home - 3;
    • Last 10 matches: average total - 2.6; at home - 2.6.

    Tigres: Statistics

    • Season: average total in the tournament - 3, away - 0;
    • Last 10 matches: average total - 2.5; away - 2.75.
    👉Prediction: Yellow Cards - Total Over (4.5)

    Both Teams to Score Prediction

    Head-to-Head Matches:

    • Total encounters - 51;
    • Both teams scored overall - 25 times;
    • At the home team's ground - 13 times.

    Statistics: Toluca vs Tigres

    • Matches played in the tournament: 2 vs 1;
    • Matches in the season where both teams scored (BTTS): Toluca - 2, Tigres - 0;
    • Toluca's BTTS at home - 1 (100%);
    • Tigres' BTTS away - 0 (0%).

    Last 10 Matches:

    • BTTS matches: Toluca - 7, Tigres - 5;
    • Toluca's BTTS at home - 3 (60%);
    • Tigres' BTTS away - 0 (0%).
    👉Prediction: Both Teams To Score (No) (Odds: 2.18)

    ⭐ Editor's Prediction

    Considering Toluca's attacking style and Tigres' ability to capitalize on counterattacks, we anticipate a dynamic and eventful match with plenty of goal-scoring opportunities for both sides. Based on their head-to-head statistics, the most reasonable bet appears to be on over 2.5 goals. This outcome occurred in six of the last seven encounters between these teams at Toluca's ground.

    Our choice
    Total goals Over (2.5) at odds of -120*
    MyBookie
    Bet
    *The odds are relevant for the time of publication (25 July 2025, 08:33)

    Betting Tips: Toluca - Tigres UANL

    Tigres UANL have drawn in the 1st half
    uanl-tigresin 6 of last 7 games.
    1st Half Draw
    Bovada
    +125
    Toluca have won
    deportivo-toluca-1uanl-tigresin last 7 home games against Tigres UANL (Liga MX).
    deportivo-toluca-1in 10 of last 11 home games (Liga MX).
    Toluca Win
    MyBookie
    -102
    Tigres UANL have not lost
    uanl-tigresin 8 of last 9 games (Liga MX).
    Tigres UANL will not lose
    Everygame
    -109
    Toluca have not lost
    deportivo-toluca-1uanl-tigresin last 7 home games against Tigres UANL (Liga MX).
    deportivo-toluca-1in 22 of last 23 home games (Liga MX).
    deportivo-toluca-1in 19 of last 20 home games.
    deportivo-toluca-1in 15 of last 16 games.
    deportivo-toluca-1in 14 of last 15 games (Liga MX).
    Tigres UANL have not won
    uanl-tigresin 12 of last 13 away games.
    uanl-tigresin 8 of last 9 away games (Liga MX).
    Toluca will not lose
    MyBookie
    -400
    View more facts

    Toluca - Tigres Table position

    Apertura
    gWDLGDPForm
    1.
    Toluca
    Toluca
    17114243-1837
    2.
    Tigres UANL
    Tigres UANL
    17106135-1636
    3.
    Cruz Azul
    Cruz Azul
    17105232-2035
    4.
    CF America
    CF America
    17104333-1834
    5.
    CF Monterrey
    CF Monterrey
    1794433-2931
    6.
    Guadalajara Chivas
    Guadalajara Chivas
    1792629-2229

    Comparison of Teams Stats

    10 matches
    4 - Wins
    1 - Draw
    5 - Loses
    Wins - 5
    Draws - 2
    Loses - 3
    10 matches
    Scored - 18
    Conceded - 14
    +4
    +7
    17 - Scored
    10 - Conceded
    4
    Wins
    5
    1
    Draws
    2
    5
    Loses
    3
    Goal difference
    18
    Scored
    17
    14
    Conceded
    10
    3.2
    Match goals average
    2.7
    1.8
    Goals scored per match on average
    1.7
    1.4
    Goals conceded per match on average
    1
    6
    Both teams scored
    6
    52'
    Minutes / Goal scored
    55'
    View all stats