Santos vs Chapecoense Prediction 25 July 2026
🔊 Santos arrive at matchday 20 in inconsistent form, still fighting to stay in the league. Chapecoense are bottom of the table and well off the safety zone - and it shows, both in results and in how they're approaching games. The key contrast here is simple: Santos need points, Chapecoense don't really have anything left to play for. The recent numbers back that up - Santos score regularly, while Chapecoense struggle to get even one goal.
Head-to-Head
The last official match between these two sides took place on 28 January 2026 and ended 4-2. Here's how the stats looked that day (Chapecoense were the home side):
- possession: 34% vs 66%;
- corners: 1 vs 14;
- fouls: 10 vs 5;
- yellow cards: 2 vs 3;
- shots on target: 4 vs 5.
📊 Head-to-head stats in official meetings between Santos and Chapecoense:
- 17 matches played;
- home wins - 10, away wins - 5, draws - 2;
- goals - 23 vs 13;
- average first-half total - 0.88, second-half - 1.24;
- average total goals per match - 2.12.
Head-to-head statistics Santos - Chapecoense
Santos Team Overview
Their last official match was played in the South American Cup (home side - USV, away side - Santos). The match ended 1-4.
Match stats (Santos vs USV):
- possession: 61% vs 39%;
- corners: 6 vs 2;
- fouls: 6 vs 9;
- yellow cards: 2 vs 2;
- shots on target: 7 vs 4.
Santos come into this one with four wins and one defeat from their last five matches. Over the last ten, it's five wins, two draws and three losses - a decent return compared to their opponents. They average 1.42 goals per game overall, and that climbs to two per game across the last ten, though the defence has been leaky - 1.3 conceded per match. The table makes uncomfortable reading: just one point separates them from the relegation zone, so every point matters.
Match Results: Santos
Chapecoense Team Overview
Their last official match was played in the Série A (Chapecoense at home, Flamengo away). The match ended 0-4.
Match stats (Chapecoense vs Flamengo):
- possession: 37% vs 63%;
- corners: 5 vs 3;
- fouls: 9 vs 8;
- yellow cards: 1 vs 0;
- shots on target: 3 vs 6.
Chapecoense are having a nightmare season - five straight defeats point to a deep crisis. In their last ten matches, the visitors have won just twice, losing seven and drawing one. Their attacking output is poor: 0.89 goals per game across the season. The defence is worse - conceding 2.05 on average. They sit twelve points from safety, and there's no obvious reason to think the run ends here.
Match Results: Chapecoense
Prediction for the 1st half
Head-to-head:
- matches played - 17;
- first-half wins for the home side - 4; for the away side - 1; draws - 3;
- average first-half total: 0.88;
- today's hosts average 0.59 goals in the first half, the visitors - 0.29.
First-half stats: Santos (home) vs Chapecoense (away)
- matches played in the tournament: 10 vs 9;
- wins: 4 (40%) vs 0 (0%);
- losses: 1 (10%) vs 3 (33.33%);
- draws: 5 (50%) vs 6 (66.67%);
- average goals scored: 1.3 vs 0.44;
- average goals conceded: 0.6 vs 0.44.
Last 10 matches (overall):
- wins: 7 vs 3;
- losses: 2 vs 4;
- draws: 1 vs 3;
- average first-half total: 1.5 (scored - 1, conceded - 0.5) vs 1.6 (scored - 0.6, conceded - 1).
- Santos have scored in the first half in 6 of their last 7 head-to-head meetings.
- Santos have scored in the first half in 5 consecutive head-to-head matches (Série A).
Outcome Prediction
Head-to-head:
- played - 17;
- home wins - 10, away wins - 5, draws - 2.
Stats: Santos vs Chapecoense
- matches in the tournament: 19 vs 19;
- wins: 5 vs 1;
- win rate: 26% vs 5%;
- losses: 8 vs 12;
- draws: 6 vs 6.
Last 10 matches:
- wins: 5 vs 2;
- losses: 3 vs 7;
- draws: 2 vs 1.
- Santos have won at home in 7 of the last 8 head-to-head meetings between these sides.
- Santos have won at home in 6 of the last 7 head-to-head meetings between these sides (Série A).
- Chapecoense have lost 9 of their last 10 matches (Série A).
- Chapecoense have lost 7 of their last 8 away matches (Série A).
Total Goals Prediction
Head-to-head (average totals):
- home team - 1.35, away team - 0.76;
- in head-to-head matches - 2.12;
- both teams scored: all time - 4 times; at the home team's ground - 1 time.
Average total stats: Santos vs Chapecoense
- in the tournament: 3.05 vs 2.95;
- goals scored: 1.42 vs 0.89;
- 1st half: 0.68 vs 0.32;
- 2nd half: 0.74 vs 0.58;
- Santos: at home in the tournament - 1.5;
- Chapecoense: away in the tournament - 0.44;
- last 10 matches: 2 (home - 2) vs 1.2 (away - 0.6).
- Under 3.5 goals has landed in 5 consecutive head-to-head matches at the home team's ground (Série A).
- Under 3.5 goals has landed in 14 of Santos's last 16 home matches (Série A).
- Under 3.5 goals has landed in 23 of Chapecoense's last 24 away matches.
- Under 3.5 goals has landed in 9 consecutive Chapecoense away matches (Série A).
Corners Prediction
Santos: Stats
- season: average total in the tournament - 5; at home - 4.8;
- last 10 matches: average total - 3.8; at home - 3.2.
Chapecoense: Stats
- season: average total in the tournament - 3.79, away - 2.44;
- last 10 matches: average total - 4.9; away - 3.6.
- Santos have taken under 6.5 corners in 7 of the last 8 head-to-head meetings between these sides (Série A).
- Santos have taken under 6.5 corners in 12 of their last 13 matches.
- Santos have taken under 6.5 corners in 8 of their last 9 matches (Série A).
Both Teams To Score Prediction
Head-to-head:
- played - 17;
- both teams scored all time - 4 times;
- at the home team's ground - 1 time.
Stats: Santos vs Chapecoense
- played in the tournament: 19 vs 19;
- season matches with both teams scoring (BTTS): 14 vs 11;
- Santos: BTTS at home - 6 (60%);
- Chapecoense: BTTS away - 4 (44%).
Last 10 matches:
- BTTS matches: 6 vs 3;
- Santos: BTTS at home - 2 (40%);
- Chapecoense: BTTS away - 1 (20%).
Correct Score Prediction
Most common scorelines (current season):
- most frequent scoreline in the tournament: 1:1 (28/189, 14.8%);
- Santos at home most often finish: 1:1, 2:0 (2/10, 20%);
- Chapecoense away most often play: 2:0 (4/9, 44.4%).
Based on stats and probability distribution, the algorithm's top 3 predicted scorelines:
1:0 - 12.74% (odds 7)
2:0 - 10.87% (odds 6.5)
2:1 - 10.82% (odds 8)
⭐ Editor's Prediction
The most likely scenario here is Santos controlling the game while Chapecoense offer little going forward. That fits the recent trend: over 2.5 goals has landed in each of Santos' last eight matches, which says a lot about how they play regardless of the opposition. Given Chapecoense's problems and the history between these two sides, our pick is - Santos to score in the 1st half. That has come in 6 of their last 7 head-to-head meetings. Predicted score - 2:0.
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Betting Tips: Santos - Chapecoense
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Comparison of Teams Stats
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