Bahia Ba vs Chapecoense Prediction 17 July 2026
🔊 Bahia host Chapecоense in a rescheduled round 4 fixture from the Brazilian championship. The match was originally due in February, but both sides arrive at it past the halfway point of the season. Bahia are still pushing for a Copa Libertadores spot, while Chapecоense sit bottom of the table and are trying to drag themselves out of the relegation zone. The gap in league position and current form makes the hosts clear favourites.
Head-to-Head
📊 Head-to-head stats from official meetings between Bahia and Chapecoense:
- They have faced off 12 times;
- The hosts have claimed 3 wins, the visitors 5, with 4 draws;
- Both sides have scored 11 goals each;
- The average number of goals in the first half stands at 0.75, while the second half sees an average of 1.08;
- The overall average goals per match is 1.83.
Head-to-head statistics Bahia Ba - Chapecoense
Bahia Team Overview
Their most recent match took place on in a friendly, with Fluminense playing host to Bahia. Fluminense came out on top with a 2-0 victory.
Here’s a breakdown of the key stats (Bahia vs Fluminense):
- Possession: 52% vs 48%;
- Corners: 2 vs 1;
- Yellow cards: 5 vs 2;
- Shots on target: 2 vs 2.
Rogério Ceni’s side sit sixth after 18 rounds, collecting 26 points so far. Bahia are particularly formidable at home, having suffered just two defeats on their own turf this season. In recent fixtures, they edged out Botafogo 2-1, drew 1-1 with Grêmio, and narrowly lost 2-3 to Coritiba in a fiercely contested match. Notably, Bahia have found the net in every home league game to date.
However, defensive consistency remains an issue for the Tricolor, who have conceded in 11 consecutive matches - six of them at home. The “both teams to score (yes)” bet has landed in eight of their last outings. Bahia need to be especially alert in the opening half, as they've shipped goals before the interval in five of their previous six matches. During the recent break, the Salvador club played just one friendly, cruising past Uruguay’s Montevideo City with a 4-1 victory.
Match Results: Bahia
Chapecoense Team Overview
The visitors last played on in a friendly, facing Grêmio away from home. Chapecoense came away with a 1-2 victory.
Key match stats (Chapecoense vs Grêmio):
- Possession: 25% vs 75%;
- Corners: 3 vs 9;
- Yellow cards: 2 vs 2;
- Shots on target: 5 vs 6.
The return to Serie A has been extremely difficult for Chapecoense. After 18 rounds, the team sits in 20th place with just 9 points. The biggest problems have come away from home: in six league away matches, Chapecoense have suffered five defeats and recorded only one draw. In addition, the team has failed to win 13 of their last 15 away matches across all competitions.
After the defeat to Remo Belém (2:3) in the 16th round, the club’s management parted ways with head coach Fabio Matias and appointed Rafael Lacerda as his replacement, who previously worked with Atlético Goianiense in Serie B. Following the coaching change, the team has become slightly more organized, but consistency is still missing. The main issue remains the defense: in their last three official matches, the Green Team have suffered defeats with an overall score of 1:5. Chapecoense also played a friendly match, where they secured an away victory over Grêmio with a 2:1 scoreline.
Match Results: Chapecoense
Match Outcome Prediction
Head-to-head matches:
- played - 12;
- home wins - 3, away wins - 5, draws - 4.
Statistics: Bahia vs Chapecoense
- matches in the tournament: 17 vs 17;
- wins: 7 vs 1;
- win percentage: 41% vs 6%;
- losses: 5 vs 10;
- draws: 5 vs 6.
Last 10 matches:
- wins: 2 vs 3;
- losses: 5 vs 5;
- draws: 3 vs 2.
- Chapecoense wins with a +1.5 handicap in 13 of their last 14 matches.
- Chapecoense wins with a +1.5 handicap away from home in 8 of their last 9 matches.
- Chapecoense wins with a +1.5 handicap in 6 consecutive Serie A matches.
Total Goals Prediction
Head-to-head matches (average total):
- home team - 0.92, away team - 0.92;
- in head-to-head matches - 1.83;
- both teams scored: 5 times overall; 1 time at the home team's stadium.
Average total statistics: Bahia vs Chapecoense
- in the tournament: 2.82 vs 2.94;
- goals scored: 1.47 vs 1;
- first half: 0.71 vs 0.35;
- second half: 0.76 vs 0.65;
- Bahia: home average in the tournament - 1.56;
- Chapecoense: away average in the tournament - 0.5;
- last 10 matches: 1.4 (home - 1.4) vs 1.5 (away - 1).
- Bahia scored under 2.5 goals in 11 of the last 12 head-to-head matches between these teams.
- Bahia scored under 2.5 goals in 9 of the last 10 Serie A head-to-head matches between these teams.
- Bahia scored under 2.5 goals in 26 of their last 27 Serie A matches.
- Bahia scored under 2.5 goals at home in 13 of their last 14 Serie A matches.
- Bahia scored under 2.5 goals in 11 consecutive matches.
- Bahia scored under 2.5 goals at home in 9 of their last 10 matches.
Corners Prediction
Bahia: Statistics
- season: average corners in the tournament - 5.88; at home - 6.56;
- last 10 matches: average total - 6.7; at home - 7.6.
Chapecoense: Statistics
- season: average corners in the tournament - 3.59, away - 2;
- last 10 matches: average total - 4.4; away - 3.
- Chapecoense has over 3.5 corners in 6 of their last 7 Serie A head-to-head matches against Bahia.
Both Teams To Score Prediction
Head-to-head matches:
- played - 12;
- both teams scored overall - 5 times;
- at the home team's stadium - 1 time.
Statistics: Bahia vs Chapecoense
- matches played in the tournament: 17 vs 17;
- matches this season where both teams scored: 12 vs 11;
- Bahia: BTTS at home - 7 (78%);
- Chapecoense: BTTS away - 4 (50%).
Last 10 matches:
- matches with BTTS: 9 vs 5;
- Bahia: BTTS at home - 5 (100%);
- Chapecoense: BTTS away - 3 (50%).
- Bahia scored and conceded in 8 consecutive matches.
- Bahia scored and conceded in 6 consecutive Serie A matches.
- Bahia scored and conceded at home in 5 consecutive Serie A matches.
- Chapecoense scored and conceded in 6 of their last 7 Serie A matches.
Correct Score Prediction
Most frequent results statistics (current season):
- most common score in the tournament: 1:1 (26/177, 14.7%);
- Bahia's most common home result: 1:1 (3/9, 33.3%);
- Chapecoense's most common away result: 2:0 (3/8, 37.5%).
Based on statistics and probability distribution, the algorithm predicts the top 3 outcomes:
1:0 - 11.89% (odds 8)
2:1 - 10.42% (odds 8)
1:1 - 9.91% (odds 9)
⭐ Editorial Prediction
Bahia come into this match in a significantly better condition. The hosts continue to fight for a place in the upper part of the table and have been performing confidently on their own ground. The visitors, on the other hand, remain the worst team in the championship in terms of points earned and have looked extremely weak away from home. Considering Bahia’s home statistics, the current form of both teams, and the difference in quality, the most logical option is Bahia to win. The most likely scoreline is 2:1.
No comments
Betting Tips: Bahia - Chapecoense
in 7 of last 8 games (Serie A).in 6 of last 7 away games (Serie A)..svg)
in 8 of last 9 games.
in last 6 games against Chapecoense (Serie A).in last 16 games (Serie A).in last 8 away games (Serie A).in last 27 home games.in 19 of last 20 games.in last 18 home games (Serie A).in 16 of last 17 games (Serie A).in 22 of last 24 away games.in last 11 games (Serie A).in last 8 away games (Serie A).
Comparison of Teams Stats
Other predictions
