Chapecoense vs Bahia Ba Prediction 16 August 2026
🔊 In round 23 of the Brazilian Série A, Chapecoense host Bahia at Arena Conda. The hosts come into this match in an extremely difficult position: the team sit bottom of the table and have gone 11 games without a win. Bahia, on the other hand, continue to push for a place in the upper half of the table, although they have noticeably dropped off recently and have drawn their last four league matches.
Head-to-Head
The last official match between the teams took place on 17 July 2026 and ended 2-0. Here is the comparative statistics from that match (Bahia were the home side):
- possession: 65% vs 35%;
- corners: 10 vs 6;
- fouls: 17 vs 17;
- yellow cards: 2 vs 0;
- shots on target: 6 vs 2.
📊 Statistical preview based on official meetings between Chapecoense and Bahia:
- 13 matches played;
- home wins - 5, away wins - 4, draws - 4;
- goals - 11 vs 13;
- average total in the 1st half - 0.85, in the 2nd - 1;
- average total goals per match - 1.85.
Head-to-head statistics Chapecoense - Bahia Ba
Chapecoense Team Overview
The team's last official match was played on in the Série A (home side - Coritiba, away side - Chapecoense). The match ended 2-1.
The match statistics were as follows (Chapecoense vs Coritiba):
- possession: 64% vs 36%;
- corners: 6 vs 5;
- fouls: 11 vs 14;
- yellow cards: 1 vs 1;
- shots on target: 3 vs 4.
Chapecoense are effectively in crisis. After 22 rounds the team sit bottom of the table, and their winless run has reached 11 matches. In the last round, the Verdão lost to Coritiba 1-2, and a few days earlier they were knocked out of the Copa do Brasil, losing to Cruzeiro 0-2 on aggregate.
The main problem for Rafael Lacerda's side is a lack of stability up front. Chapecoense regularly create individual chances but too often fail to get enough out of them. At the same time the defence is also struggling to hold up over the distance: in the last six matches across all competitions the team have conceded 12 goals.
Home advantage remains one of the few arguments in the hosts' favour. At Arena Conda, Chapecoense will be forced to play more boldly, especially given their position in the table. Dropping more points would widen the gap even further from their rivals in the fight for survival.
Match Results: Chapecoense
Bahia Team Overview
The current away side's last official match was played in the Série A (home side - Bahia, away side - Vasco da Gama). The match ended 0:0.
The match stats were as follows (Bahia vs Vasco da Gama):
- possession: 51% vs 49%;
- corners: 4 vs 6;
- fouls: 13 vs 10;
- yellow cards: 1 vs 2;
- shots on target: 2 vs 3.
Bahia come into this match in a completely different position in the table. Rogério Ceni's side are still fighting for a place in the Copa Libertadores zone, but right now they are clearly lacking wins. Their last match against Vasco da Gama ended 0-0 and was already their fourth consecutive draw in the league. Before that, the team also shared points with Fluminense, Corinthians and Atlético Mineiro.
The visitors' problem at the moment lies precisely in attack. In their last four Série A matches, Bahia have scored just two goals. At the same time, the Tricolor remain one of the better-organised sides defensively, so against the bottom club in the league Ceni has every reason to focus on control and solidity.
An additional advantage for Bahia is their motivation in terms of the table. The visitors are still fighting for a place in the upper half, while Chapecoense need to save their season. In this situation, Bahia's superior squad quality and stable structure should prove decisive.
Match Results: Bahia
Prediction for the 1st half
Head-to-head matches:
- played - 13;
- first-half wins for the home side (at home) - 0; for the away side (away) - 1; draws - 5;
- average first-half total: 0.85;
- today's home side average 0.38 goals scored, the away side - 0.46.
First-half stats: Chapecoense (home) vs Bahia (away)
- matches played in the tournament: 10 vs 10;
- wins: 0 (0%) vs 4 (40%);
- losses: 3 (30%) vs 4 (40%);
- draws: 7 (70%) vs 2 (20%);
- average total goals scored: 1.9 vs 1.2;
- average total goals conceded: 1.3 vs 0.6.
Last 10 matches (overall):
- wins: 1 vs 2;
- losses: 6 vs 2;
- draws: 3 vs 6;
- average first-half total: 1.3 (scored - 0.2, conceded - 1.1) vs 1.1 (scored - 0.6, conceded - 0.5).
- Chapecoense have drawn the first half at home in 5 consecutive head-to-head matches between these two sides (Série A).
Total Goals Prediction
Head-to-head matches (average total):
- home team - 0.85, away team - 1.0;
- in head-to-head matches - 1.85;
- both teams scored: overall - 5 times; at home team's ground - 4 times.
Statistics on average total: Chapecoense vs Bahia
- in the tournament: 3.0 vs 2.45;
- goals scored: 0.95 vs 1.32;
- in the 1st half: 0.29 vs 0.68;
- in the 2nd half: 0.67 vs 0.64;
- Chapecoense: at home in the tournament - 1.3;
- Bahia: away in the tournament - 1.2;
- last 10 matches: 0.8 (home - 1.25) vs 1.1 (away - 1.0).
- Chapecoense score fewer than 1.5 goals in 11 of the last 12 head-to-head meetings between these teams.
- Chapecoense score fewer than 1.5 goals in 10 consecutive head-to-head matches between these teams (Serie A).
- Chapecoense score fewer than 1.5 goals in 16 of the last 18 matches (Serie A).
- Chapecoense score fewer than 1.5 goals at home in 7 of the last 8 matches (Serie A).
Corner Kick Prediction
Chapecoense: Statistics
- season: average total in the tournament - 3.76; home - 5;
- last 10 matches: average total - 5.1; home - 7.25.
Bahia: Statistics
- season: average total in the tournament - 5.73, away - 4.6;
- last 10 matches: average total - 6.3; away - 4.75.
- Bahia takes fewer than 5.5 corners away in 5 consecutive head-to-head matches between these teams.
Correct Score Prediction
Most frequent results statistics (current season):
- most common score in the tournament: 1:1 (34/215, 15.8%);
- Chapecoense at home most often finish matches: 0:4 , 1:1 (2/10, 20%);
- Bahia away most often play: 0:1 , 1:2 (2/10, 20%).
Based on statistics and probability distribution, the algorithm predicts the top 3 outcomes:
1:1 - 12.72% (odds 6.5)
0:1 - 9.57% (odds 7.5)
1:2 - 9.49% (odds 8)
⭐ Editor's Pick
At first glance, four draws in a row might make you more cautious about Bahia, but this match looks like a convenient opportunity to end that run. Chapecoense have not won in 11 games in a row, recently dropped out of the Copa do Brasil, and remain bottom of the table.
That said, I wouldn't expect a big win from Bahia. The visitors themselves are having serious problems in front of goal. So the main argument in Bahia's favour is not the strength of their attack, but their ability to control the game and prevent the opposition from creating many dangerous moments. Main bet: total under 2.5 goals. Correct score prediction: 0:1 to Bahia.
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Betting Tips: Chapecoense - Bahia
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