St Pauli vs Union Prediction 26 January 2025

🔊 Which team will be higher in the Bundesliga standings after the 19th round? The teams are neighbors in the lower half. St. Pauli is three points behind, but if they defeat Union, they will surpass them on additional criteria. There are certainly chances for this, as there is no clear favorite in the upcoming match. Therefore, we will consider different options to make the prediction optimal. Note that the match will take place in Hamburg at the "Millerntor" stadium.

📊 Head-to-Head

In a stretch of 26 head-to-head matches, Union has the advantage with 50% wins. In the first round of the current season, they were stronger thanks to a single goal scored by Benedikt Hollerbach. It's worth noting that St. Pauli has scored no more than one goal in 7 of the last 8 head-to-head matches. Therefore, it's worth considering a bet on - St. Pauli total goals under 1.5.

🟤 St. Pauli

St. Pauli remains one of the contenders for relegation from the Bundesliga, although they sometimes show interesting results. For example, they ended 2024 with a victory over Stuttgart (1:0). However, after the break, the team suffered two defeats, conceding one goal each from Eintracht and Bochum. Last week, they also looked quite reliable in defense against Heidenheim and even earned three points (2:0). It's worth noting that St. Pauli has conceded 21 goals in the Bundesliga, which is currently the second-highest after Bayern. In January, the club loaned James Sands (New York City) and Noah Weißhaupt (Freiburg), who immediately joined the starting lineup. Meanwhile, Abdoulaye Cissé, purchased from Paide, has only been coming on as a substitute in the final minutes. St. Pauli's injury list is quite long, with several players not having played for a while. It's also worth mentioning that Erik Smith will not play in the upcoming match due to an accumulation of yellow cards.

🔴 Union

Union recently changed their coach. Steffen Baumgart came to the team with his tactics, setting up four defenders instead of five. However, the Berliners conceded two unanswered goals from Heidenheim and Augsburg. Therefore, in the last round, the coach abandoned his favorite scheme and returned five defenders to the field. As a result, Union scored already in the first minute against Mainz. After that, the opponents exchanged penalty goals in the first half, but Baumgart's team secured the victory (2:1). It is likely that in upcoming matches, the team will use the formation that brought them points. It is noteworthy that Kevin Vogt and Andrej Ilić missed one match each due to injuries. Ivan Prtajin was sidelined earlier and hasn't played in January.

🟨 Prediction for Yellow Cards

The advantage in yellow cards this season is with Union - 2.6 against 1.7. In matches involving them, there are an average of 4.2 warnings. St. Pauli's similar figure is slightly lower (3.8). In none of Baumgart's matches have there been more than four yellow cards. Therefore, it's worth choosing a bet on total yellow cards under 4.5.

⚽️ Prediction for Goals

Union scores fewer goals away than any other team in the Bundesliga. At the same time, they have conceded 15 goals in nine matches. In six of these last matches, the Berliners failed to keep a clean sheet after halftime. Therefore, a bet on - St. Pauli to score in the 2nd half looks quite intriguing.

🚩 Prediction for Corners

The advantage in corners this season is with Union - 4.7 against 3.8. Meanwhile, St. Pauli has not had more than four corners in 7 out of 8 Bundesliga matches. It is clear that much will depend on how the match unfolds, but a bet on home team's total corners under 4.5 looks quite profitable.

📝 Match Prediction

Neither team can be called attacking-oriented. They both place a certain emphasis on defense, playing with five defenders, at least based on the last round. However, positions on the field are relative; player roles are much more important. Both teams need points, so it's unlikely anyone will be too upset by a draw, for example, with a score of 1:1.

As we noted earlier, St. Pauli has quite a reliable defense if judged solely by the number of goals conceded. Union played well in the last round, but it was just one such match under the new coach. We can expect a goal from the hosts but probably not more than one, as indicated by two trends, including head-to-head meetings. Therefore, as a key bet, we suggest total goals under 2.5.