Troyes vs Paris Prediction 22 August 2026
🔊 Troyes return to Ligue 1 after a three-year absence. Their first opponent? One of the toughest possible. Troyes have failed to score against the Parisians in their last two meetings, and during their most recent trip in October 2024, they conceded three goals. Since then, Troyes have been crowned Ligue 2 champions, while the capital club have solidified their place in Ligue 1.
Head-to-Head
📊 Paris have rewritten the history of this head-to-head. Troyes have managed just one win in their last ten league meetings-back in the 2020/21 season. The sides have drawn three times, while the "Citizens" have come out on top in the other six encounters. At home, Troyes have lost both of their most recent head-to-heads and have scored more than once in only one of the last five. It’s worth noting, though: all ten of these clashes took place in Ligue 2.
Head-to-head statistics Troyes - Paris
Troyes Team Overview
The club clinched the Ligue 2 title with 67 points, securing their third second-division championship in history. Troyes booked their promotion as early as April and sealed the trophy on the final matchday with a commanding 4-0 victory over Laval. The turnaround was dramatic-just a year prior, Troyes had finished tenth with only 44 points.
Troyes are owned by City Football Group and entered the season with the third-largest budget in Ligue 2 at €21 million. Stéphane Dumont has been at the helm since August 2024, and his impressive campaign earned him the division's Manager of the Season award. The title marks the first major trophy of his coaching career, following a three-year spell at Guingamp before joining Troyes.
Match Results: Troyes
Paris Team Overview
Last season marked Paris's first appearance in Ligue 1 in 46 years. They earned promotion after finishing second in Ligue 2, coinciding with a change of ownership: since late 2024, the Arnault family have been at the helm, with Red Bull also holding a stake in the club. Their debut campaign ended with an 11th-place finish-44 points, 47 goals scored, and 50 conceded.
Paris went through two head coaches over the course of the year-Antoine Kombouaré replaced Stéphane Gilli in February. The season proved rather uneventful: 11 draws and 11 wins from 34 matches. Offensively, they were modest-top scorer Ilan Kebbal managed just nine goals. However, they still had enough left in the tank for a statement result: on the final matchday, Paris stunned PSG with a 2-1 victory.
Match Results: Paris
Latest news
Troyes
❌ This summer, Troyes saw the departure of the very players who propelled them into Ligue 1. Tawfik Bentayeb, who netted 20 goals across all competitions last season, returned to his parent club after his loan spell ended, taking the team's top scorer with him. Soon after, Marten Adeline, Mathis Detourbe, and Sancoun Diavara also left the club. Troyes brought in over €30 million from these sales, but they have yet to sign a replacement centre-forward for Bentayeb. Among the new arrivals are goalkeeper Patrick Beach, midfielder Iron Gomis, and Hugo Picard, who joined on loan from Columbus Crew on August 17.
Paris
❓ Kombouaré has left the club: on July 7, Paris announced his departure and signed Liam Rosenior through June 2028. The Englishman knows Ligue 1 well-he took charge of Strasbourg in July 2024 and led them into European competition. In January, Liam moved to Chelsea, but the London club dismissed him just three months later in April. Rosenior officially started work in Paris on July 9. The club has reshaped its attack to suit his style: Lassina Sinaïoko arrived from Auxerre, while Pablo Pagis-who tallied ten goals and five assists in 28 Ligue 1 appearances last season-also joined. At the back, Diego Coppola and free agent Emmanuel Mbemba have reinforced the defense, and the club opted to keep Kebbalah instead of selling him.
📋 Probable Lineups
Troyes likely starting XI: Bichi - Titi, Monfray, Dias, Ouzennadji - Gomis, Diop - Odede, Ifnaoui, Picard - Fattah
Paris likely starting XI: Trapp - Camara, Coppola, Otavio, De Smet - Lees-Melou, Zabi - Pagis, Kebbalah, Koleosho - Sinaïoko
⚽️ Goals Prediction
Paris have scored more than once on the road in just one of their last eight away games. Their away trips have also kept things tight for their opponents: fewer than four goals have been scored in 12 of their last 13 matches away from home. The club has brought in new forwards, but this will be Rosénior’s first official match since returning to France. Given these factors, it’s unlikely the visitors will score more than once here as well. The pick: Paris under 1.5 team goals at odds of 1.74*.
🚩 Corner Prediction
Corners have been a real strength for Troyes, especially at home-nine out of their last ten home matches have seen at least seven total corners. The hosts themselves average 4.9 corners per game. The visitors are an accommodating opponent in this regard, allowing their rivals to win 6.05 corners per match-one and a half times more than Troyes’ opponents typically concede. Given these numbers, a well-founded pick is Troyes over 4.5 individual corners.
🟨 Yellow Card Prediction
Marc Bollengier will be in charge of this fixture, and that alone is a significant factor. Last Ligue 1 season, he officiated 16 matches and handed out 71 yellow cards-an average of 4.4 per game. The teams’ stats align with this trend: over their last 20 official matches, Troyes’ games have seen an average of 4.5 bookings combined, while PSG’s figure stands at 3.5. Based on these numbers, it’s reasonable to expect around four yellow cards in this match. With the line set at 2.5 and a referee like Bollengier, that threshold looks far too low. The pick here is over 2.5 yellow cards.
*Odds are approximate and may vary across different bookmakers.
⭐ Editor’s Prediction
Paris FC have failed to win in seven of their last eight away fixtures, and it’s unlikely that Rosénior’s debut will break that trend. Troyes, meanwhile, are riding a five-match home winning streak-even if those victories came in a lower division. The gap in quality between these sides remains, so backing the newly promoted team for a win isn’t the safest bet. However, Troyes certainly have enough to hold their own against a mid-table opponent. The pick: the hosts will avoid defeat. Predicted scoreline: 1-1.
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Betting Tips: Troyes - Paris
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