Maldonado vs Penarol Prediction 22 August 2026
🔊 The final round of the season carries little in the way of meaningful stakes: neither Deportivo Maldonado nor Peñarol have anything serious to play for and both sit comfortably in the upper half of the table. The two sides arrive in decent form, having picked up points consistently over a long stretch while maintaining solid numbers at both ends of the pitch. That said, Peñarol's away matches have almost always been low-scoring affairs - a notable contrast to their productivity at home - and that factor could prove decisive in shaping how this closing fixture plays out.
Head-to-Head
The last official meeting between the two sides took place on 22 February 2026 and ended 2-1. Here are the key stats from that match (Peñarol were the home side):
- Possession: 46% vs 54%;
- Corners: 6 vs 8;
- Yellow cards: 3 vs 2.
📊 In 14 official meetings between Deportivo Maldonado and Peñarol, the hosts have won 2, the visitors 8, with 4 draws. The goal difference stands at 12-24. On average, 1 goal is scored in the first half and 1.57 in the second, giving an overall match average of 2.57 goals.
Head-to-head statistics Maldonado - Penarol
Deportivo Maldonado Team Overview
Their last official match took place on in the Primera, with Progreso hosting Deportivo Maldonado. The match ended 0-2.
Match stats (Deportivo Maldonado vs Progreso):
- Possession: 59% vs 41%;
- Corners: 5 vs 5;
- Yellow cards: 2 vs 1;
- Shots on target: 3 vs 3.
Deportivo Maldonado have had a solid season, built on a reasonable balance between attack and defence. Over their last five matches they have won once, drawn three times and lost once, though across a ten-match stretch the picture looks considerably better - five wins and just one defeat. Their average of 1.8 goals scored per match over the longer run points to consistent output in attack, while at the other end they have conceded fewer than one goal per game on average (0.9). Throughout the season Deportivo Maldonado have rarely allowed opponents many clear chances. Worth noting separately is a steady trend: they score in almost every home match and rarely lose at home - figures that speak to a resilient side even when there is little on the line.
Match Results: Deportivo Maldonado
Penarol Montevideo Team Overview
The visitors' most recent competitive match took place on in the Primera, with Peñarol at home against Central Español. The match ended 2-1.
Match stats (Peñarol vs Central Español):
- Possession: 58% vs 42%;
- Corners: 6 vs 3;
- Yellow cards: 3 vs 3;
- Shots on target: 4 vs 1.
Peñarol finished the season strongly, winning four of their last five matches with one draw. Over their last ten games, they have six wins and two defeats, averaging 1.8 goals scored per match - a sign of consistent attacking output. Defensively they have also been solid, conceding just 0.6 goals per game over that stretch and under one per game across the season. There is, however, a clear trend away from home: Peñarol's away matches have produced under 2.5 goals in 13 of their previous 14 fixtures, pointing to a more pragmatic approach on the road even when form is decent.
Match Results: Penarol Montevideo
Total Goals Prediction
Head-to-head (average totals):
- home team - 0.86, away team - 1.71;
- combined in head-to-head matches - 2.57;
- both teams scored: all time - 9 times; at the home team's ground - 3 times.
Average total stats: Deportivo Maldonado vs Peñarol
- in the league: 2.61 vs 2.57;
- goals scored: 1.7 vs 1.7;
- first half: 0.91 vs 0.7;
- second half: 0.78 vs 1;
- Deportivo Maldonado at home in the league - 1.83;
- Peñarol away in the league - 1.5;
- last 10 matches: 1.8 (home - 1.83) vs 1.8 (away - 1.33).
- Total Goals - Over 1.5 has landed in 7 of Deportivo Maldonado's last 8 home matches (Primera).
- Total Goals - Over 1.5 has landed in 5 consecutive Peñarol matches (Primera).
Corners Prediction
Head-to-Head
- average total corners in head-to-head matches - 10.43 (3.36 for the home side, 7.07 for the away side);
- average total corners at the home side's ground - 9.5 (2.5 for the home side, 7 for the away side).
Deportivo Maldonado: Statistics
- season: average total in the league - 4.91; at home - 4.17;
- last 10 matches: average total - 4.7; at home - 5.33.
Peñarol: Statistics
- season: average total in the league - 4.7; away - 3.75;
- last 10 matches: average total - 4.8; away - 3.67.
- Peñarol have taken fewer than 4.5 corners in nine consecutive away matches.
- Peñarol have taken fewer than 4.5 corners in six consecutive away matches in the Primera.
Both Teams to Score Prediction
Head-to-head:
- matches played - 14;
- both teams scored across all meetings - 9 times;
- at the home team's ground - 3 times.
Stats: Deportivo Maldonado vs Peñarol
- matches played this season: 15 vs 15;
- matches with both teams scoring (BTTS): 13 vs 12;
- Deportivo Maldonado: BTTS at home - 7 (58%);
- Peñarol: BTTS away - 2 (25%).
Last 10 matches:
- BTTS matches: 6 vs 4;
- Deportivo Maldonado: BTTS at home - 4 (67%);
- Peñarol: BTTS away - 1 (33%).
Correct Score Prediction
Most common scorelines this season:
- most frequent scoreline in the competition: 0-1 (27/185, 14.6%);
- Deportivo Maldonado at home most often finish matches: 1-0, 2-1 (2/12, 16.7%);
- Peñarol away most often play: 0-2 (3/8, 37.5%).
Based on statistics and probability distribution, the algorithm predicts the top 3 outcomes:
1-1 - 12.38% (odds 6.5)
0-1 - 12.37% (odds 6.5)
0-0 - 9.15% (odds 8.5)
⭐ Editor's Pick
Several statistical factors point towards a low-scoring match. Peñarol have been consistently tight in away fixtures - the total has gone under 2.5 in 13 of their last 14 road games, a trend backed up by their solid defensive record throughout the season. Deportivo Maldonado score regularly at home, but matches against Peñarol tend to produce limited chances at both ends. Neither side has much to play for at this stage of the season, which further reduces the likelihood of an open game. We're predicting a 1-1 draw. The key bet is Total Goals - Under 2.5.
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Betting Tips: Deportivo Maldonado - Penarol Montevideo
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