Penarol vs Maldonado Prediction 22 February 2026
📣 The upcoming clash between Peñarol and Deportivo Maldonado promises to be intense. Both teams are in decent form: Peñarol are dominant at home, having won 15 of their last 16 home matches in the Primera Division, while Deportivo Maldonado show consistency on the road with regular scoring. Read the prediction for their showdown below.
Head-to-Head
📊Statistical preview of the official encounters between Peñarol and Deportivo Maldonado:
- 13 matches played;
- home victories - 7, away wins - 2, draws - 4;
- goals scored - 22 for Peñarol, 11 for Deportivo Maldonado;
- average goals in the first half - 1, in the second half - 1.54;
- average total goals per match - 2.54.
Head-to-head statistics Penarol - Maldonado
Penarol Montevideo Team Overview
The latest official match took place in the Primera tournament with Central Español as the hosts and Peñarol as the visitors. The match concluded with a 2-1 victory.
Here are the game statistics (Peñarol vs Central Español):
- possession percentage: 56% vs 44%;
- corner kicks: 6 vs 2;
- yellow cards: 2 vs 2;
- shots on target: 3 vs 4.
Peñarol consistently perform well on their home turf. Their recent form over the last five matches includes three wins and two losses. This season, the team showcases impressive attacking prowess, averaging two goals per game at home. However, their defense isn't always reliable, as evidenced by an average of 1.5 goals conceded per match. Despite this, their strong home record boosts the team's confidence ahead of the upcoming clash.
Match Results: Penarol Montevideo
Deportivo Maldonado Team Overview
The visitors played their last official match in the Primera tournament, where the hosts were Deportivo Maldonado and the guests were Progreso. The match concluded with a 2-0 victory.
Here are the game statistics (Deportivo Maldonado vs Progreso):
- possession: 46% vs 54%;
- corners: 6 vs 4;
- yellow cards: 2 vs 3;
- shots on target: 6 vs 6.
Deportivo Maldonado are looking solid with a well-balanced game and a strong attack. Their last five matches feature three wins, one draw, and one loss. The team is renowned for their ability to score on the road, having found the net in seven of their last eight away games. They average 1.1 goals over their past ten matches, highlighting their attacking potential.
Match Results: Deportivo Maldonado
Prediction on the outcome
H2H:
- number of encounters - 13;
- home team wins - 7, away team wins - 2, draws - 4.
Statistics: Penarol Montevideo vs Deportivo Maldonado
- matches played in the tournament: 2 vs 2;
- wins: 1 vs 2;
- win percentage: 50% vs 100%;
- losses: 1 vs 0;
- draws: 0 vs 0.
Last 10 matches:
- wins: 6 vs 5;
- losses: 3 vs 2;
- draws: 1 vs 3.
- Deportivo Maldonado won with a +1.5 handicap in 20 of last 21 away games.
- Deportivo Maldonado won with a +1.5 handicap in last 9 games.
Prediction on the over/under
H2H
- today's home team scores on average - 1.69, the guests - 0.85;
- average Over/Under goals in H2H matches - 2.54;
- both teams scored: overall - 8; at the home team's field - 5.
Statistics: Penarol Montevideo vs Deportivo Maldonado
- average total in the tournament: 3.5 vs 4;
- average total goals scored: 2 vs 3;
- average total in the 1st half: 1.5 vs 1.5;
- average total in the 2nd half: 0.5 vs 1.5;
- Penarol Montevideo: average total at home in the tournament - 3;
- Deportivo Maldonado: average total away in the tournament - 4;
- last 10 matches (average total): 1.3 (home - 1.33) vs 1.1 (away - 1.4).
- Deportivo Maldonado have scored in 7 of last 8 away games.
Prediction on corners
H2H
- average Over/Under corners in H2H matches - 10.15 (7.15 - for home team and 3 - for away team);
- average Over/Under corners at home team's field - 10.72 (7.29 - for home team and 3.43 - for away team).
Penarol Montevideo: Statistics
- season: average Over/Under in the tournament - 4; at home field - 2;
- last 10 matches: average Over/Under - 4.9; at home field - 4.
Deportivo Maldonado: Statistics
- season: average Over/Under in the tournament - 7, away - 8;
- last 10 matches: average Over/Under - 5.9; away - 6.6.
- Deportivo Maldonado have taken over 3.5 corners in last 10 games.
- Deportivo Maldonado have taken over 3.5 corners in 8 of last 9 away games.
Prediction on BTTS
H2H:
- number of encounters - 13;
- both teams scored all-time - 8 times;
- on the home team’s field - 5 times.
Statistics: Penarol Montevideo vs Deportivo Maldonado
- number of matches played in the tournament: 2 vs 2;
- number of matches in the season where both teams scored (BTTS): 2 vs 1;
- number of BTTS matches for Penarol Montevideo at home - 1 (100%);
- number of BTTS matches for Deportivo Maldonado away - 1 (100%).
Last 10 matches:
- number of BTTS matches: 5 vs 3;
- BTTS matches for Penarol Montevideo at home - 3 (50%);
- BTTS matches for Deportivo Maldonado away - 1 (20%).
Correct score prediction
Statistics of frequent results (current season):
- most common score in the tournament: 1:2 (4/17, 23.5%);
- Penarol Montevideo at home most often finish matches: 3:1 (1/1, 100%);
- Deportivo Maldonado away most often play: 2:4 (1/1, 100%).
Based on statistics and probability distribution, the algorithm predicts the top 3 outcomes:
1:1 - 9.59% (odds 7.5)
2:1 - 8.87% (odds 7.5)
1:0 - 6.83% (odds 5)
- Deportivo Maldonado won 1:0 in 4 of last 5 away games.
⭐ Editorial Prediction
Peñarol are the clear favorites for this clash, traditionally banking on a solid defensive strategy, rarely conceding goals at home against lower-ranked teams. Deportivo Maldonado, aware of the gap in quality, will likely opt for a highly defensive approach with a deep block to limit the attacking space for their opponents. The nature of the Uruguayan league often involves gritty and physical play, which significantly reduces the number of truly dangerous chances at both ends. Considering the visitors' low scoring record in away games and the hosts' ability to pragmatically control the game's tempo, a bet on under 2.5 goals appears to be the most insightful prediction.
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Betting Tips: Penarol Montevideo - Deportivo Maldonado
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Comparison of Teams Stats
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