St Pauli vs Freiburg Prediction 22 March 2026
🔊 In the 27th round of the Bundesliga, teams with contrasting objectives face off at the Millerntor. St. Pauli are desperately fighting to retain their league status, while Freiburg continue their elusive chase for a spot in European competitions, despite a hectic schedule this season. The "Pirates" have turned their stadium into a fortress in recent months, whereas the "Brazilians of Breisgau" come into this match following an emotional comeback in the Europa League, but with only two days for recovery.
Head-to-Head
📊 In the first round, Yuito Suzuki's winning goal helped Freiburg defeat St. Pauli (2-1) in the 10th matchday.
Head-to-head statistics St Pauli - Freiburg
St. Pauli Team Overview
🟤 St. Pauli's three-match unbeaten streak came to an end with a 2-0 defeat against Borussia Mönchengladbach. The "Pirates" enter the weekend sitting 16th in the league standings, just three points clear of the relegation zone. After suffering four consecutive home defeats, the Hamburg club have now gone six Bundesliga matches unbeaten at the Millerntor (3 wins, 3 draws), conceding only four goals in that span.
⚪ Alexander Blessin's side will play five of their remaining eight matches this season on home turf. St. Pauli have scored the fewest goals in the Bundesliga as of Matchday 27, with just 23 goals. They have failed to find the net in 11 out of 26 matches.
Match Results: St. Pauli
Freiburg Team Overview
⚪ In the last round, Freiburg suffered their first home defeat, falling to Union Berlin (0-1), ending their 16-match unbeaten run across all competitions at the Europa-Park Stadion. It was the first home loss for the "Brazilians of Breisgau," who sit eighth in the league, since the opening round of the current Bundesliga season.
🔴 However, on Thursday, Freiburg bounced back by overturning a first-leg deficit against Belgian side Genk, securing a commanding 5-1 victory to reach their first-ever European quarterfinal. In the next round, Julian Schuster's team will face Spanish club Celta Vigo.
Match Results: Freiburg
Latest news
St. Pauli
🎙️ Alexander Blessin on the opponent: "Freiburg delivered a very impressive performance on Thursday, which will boost their confidence. We need to ensure they don't get comfortable. Against Mönchengladbach, we made the game too complicated at times. I don't like to focus too much on formations, but we need to be more precise. We've discussed this throughout the week and hope to improve this time around."
❌ Ricky-Jade Jones and James Sands will miss the match due to injuries.
Freiburg
🎙️ Julian Schuster ahead of the match: "The game against Genk gave us a boost, but in just three days we have to face a team fighting for survival. Our task now is to prepare the team for the match against St. Pauli in the limited time we have."
❌ Daniel-Kofi Kyereh remains unavailable. Max Rosenfelder might be included in the squad for Sunday's match.
🟨 Yellow Card Prediction
The match will be officiated by Florian Badstübner, who averages around 3-4 cautions per game. This season, St. Pauli have averaged 1.65 yellow cards per match, increasing to 1.83 at home. Freiburg have a similar average of 1.65, dropping to 1.46 on the road. Given that the hosts need to bounce back from a defeat and the visitors are playing just three days after a European fixture, we can anticipate a fiercely contested match with plenty of warnings. We predict over 3.5 yellow cards.
⚽ Goals Prediction
St. Pauli are the league's lowest-scoring team, but the "Pirates" are more confident at home, remaining unbeaten in six consecutive matches at the Millerntor and conceding an average of just 1.5 goals per game. Freiburg, on the other hand, struggle away from home with only two wins in 13 away matches, failing to score in their last three trips. Considering the visitors' fatigue after Thursday's European match, the most likely scenario is Freiburg's individual total under 1.5 goals.
🚩 Corner Prediction
Both St. Pauli and Freiburg average 4.5 corners per match. The "Brazilians of Breisgau" are one of the most dangerous teams in the league from set pieces, requiring only 16 corners on average to score a goal. However, they are also vulnerable when defending corners, having conceded six goals from them, which is the second-worst record in the league. Given the importance of the match for both teams and their approach to set pieces, we can anticipate over 9.5 corners.
Editor's Prediction
St. Pauli are fighting hard to avoid relegation, but their home form offers hope: the "Pirates" are unbeaten at the Millerntor in six consecutive matches. However, their main issue is scoring, with just 23 goals to their name.
Freiburg, despite sitting eighth in the table and reaching the Europa League quarter-finals, find themselves in a challenging situation. Julian Schuster's side have failed to win in their last three Bundesliga outings and have been unconvincing away from home, securing only two victories all season. Additionally, they played a tough European match on Thursday, leaving them with two days less recovery time than their hosts.
This upcoming clash will be Freiburg's 41st game of the season, while for St. Pauli, it's their 31st. Considering the visitors' fatigue and the hosts' confidence at home, a total of under 2.5 goals appears to be the most reasonable bet choice here. A predicted scoreline is a 1-1 draw.
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Betting Tips: St. Pauli - Freiburg
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