Newcastle vs Sunderland Prediction 22 March 2026
🔊 The Tyne-Wear derby returns to St James' Park after a decade! Newcastle are facing a tough spell following their Champions League exit, while Sunderland arrive with memories of their first-leg victory. The psychological edge favors the Black Cats, but the hosts seek redemption in front of their fans. All the details in our prediction.
Head-to-Head
📊 Sunderland have been out of the English football elite for quite some time, leading to just two head-to-head clashes between the teams this decade. In 2024, Newcastle secured a commanding 3-0 victory in the FA Cup, with Alexander Isak netting a brace. However, in December 2025, the Black Cats claimed a 1-0 win at the Stadium of Light, courtesy of an own goal by Nick Woltemade.
Head-to-head statistics Newcastle - Sunderland
Newcastle United Team Overview
The team currently sits in ninth place with 42 points. The Magpies have lost 3 of their last 4 Premier League home matches. St. James' Park is no longer the fortress it was at the start of the season. Eddie Howe's main concern is the number of goals they concede at home. In 5 of their last 7 home games, they've allowed more than one goal.
Their latest match ended in a humiliating 7-2 defeat at Camp Nou. The Magpies managed to hold their own against Barcelona for three quarters, but in the fourth, they conceded four unanswered goals and accepted their fate. After the match, Eddie Howe admitted that the team struggled to recover psychologically after conceding a penalty right before halftime.
Match Results: Newcastle United
Sunderland Team Overview
Regis Le Bris's side sit in 13th place with 40 points. The "Black Cats" have struggled offensively, netting just 30 goals-the only team with a worse record is bottom-placed Wolverhampton. Additionally, they face significant challenges on the road, failing to win in 9 of their last 10 Premier League away matches.
Their home form has also dipped. In the last round, Sunderland lost at home to Brighton (0-1), despite arguably deserving more from the game-a sentiment even echoed by the opposing coach in the post-match interview. However, the overall trend remains concerning. In 2026, the "Black Cats" rank only 17th in terms of points accumulation. Nonetheless, their cushion should be sufficient to avoid a relegation battle.
Match Results: Sunderland
Latest news
Newcastle United
🎙 Eddie Howe after the defeat in the Catalan capital: “It's a very painful way to exit the tournament. It's strange trying to sum it up. We were brilliant in the first half, though we didn't defend well enough in key moments, making some individual errors. Our performance in the second half wasn't as good as in the first. Barcelona deserved to go through. We have an important clash against Sunderland on Sunday. It's a big game for our fans and the club. Now we need to focus on that.”
❌ The list of absentees is familiar but painful. Emil Krafth (knee), Fabian Schär (ankle), and Lewis Miley (thigh) are out. Captain Bruno Guimarães will also miss the game, with his return expected only after the international break. The main uncertainty is Sandro Tonali. The Italian picked up a groin injury against Barcelona and is a major concern ahead of the derby. Eddie Howe: "We'll see how he feels. It might not be as bad as we feared. We'll make a decision closer to the match.”
Sunderland
🎙 Regis Le Bris commented after the defeat in the last round: “Brighton were outstanding in the first half, especially the first 30 minutes. The second half was more balanced. We had a chance to take the lead, but our goal was disallowed. They had their opportunity, and it counted. The guys showed great mentality. It was a good game, but today it just wasn't enough.”
❌ The injury list is extensive. Bertrand Traore, Romain Mandl, Joslin Ta Bi, and Nilson Angulo are out of action. Daniel Ballard is doubtful after a hamstring injury sustained against Brighton. Nordi Mukiele, Enzo Le Fee, and Robin Rufs are also questionable. According to the head coach, Reinildo Mandava should be ready to play.
🟨 Yellow Card Prediction
Anthony Taylor is a referee known for consistently high card counts. In 23 Premier League matches this season, he has issued 89 yellow cards, averaging 3.9 per game. Over his last ten matches, this average rises to 4.2. Newcastle average 1.87 cautions per home game, while Sunderland receive 2.2 away. The Tyne-Wear derby is always intense, and Taylor is known for not tolerating rough play. Thus, a bet on over 3.5 cards seems justified.
⚽ Goal Prediction
Both teams have scored in 14 of Newcastle's last 15 matches. The Magpies have found the net in 15 consecutive home games but have conceded in their last seven. Sunderland struggle to score on the road, averaging just 0.53 goals per game, but derbies often defy such stats. Expect the hosts to press from the start, with the visitors looking for counter-attacking opportunities. A sensible option is both teams to score (yes).
🚩 Corner Prediction
Newcastle average 7.07 corners per home game, the best in the league. Sunderland, meanwhile, earn just 3.27 corners away, the lowest in the current Premier League season. The Magpies should dominate this aspect, making a bet on over 5.5 corners for Newcastle a solid choice. Eddie Howe's side has hit this mark in 8 of their last 9 home league games.
🚀 Player Stats Bet
Anthony Gordon poses the main threat to Sunderland's defense. The Everton academy graduate is having his best season yet, contributing to 21 goals across all competitions. His goal secured victory over Chelsea in the last round. Eddie Howe has been deploying him as a striker, which has boosted his stats. A goal or assist from Anthony Gordon in the upcoming derby is priced at odds of 1.93*.
😱 High-Risk Bet
Newcastle have lost 3 of their last 4 home matches and exited the Champions League in a crushing defeat. This could demoralize the Magpies. Sunderland have already beaten their rivals this season and will arrive at St James' Park with some psychological edge. The visitors are likely to be fresher, making a bet on a Sunderland win at 5.35* not without merit.
👀 If the Match Doesn't Go as Planned
If Sunderland score first, Newcastle will have no choice but to push forward to avoid a second consecutive derby defeat. We know that due to their high-energy style, the Magpies often tire towards the end of halves, unable to maintain their pace. Regis Le Bris's charges could capitalize on this. We'll be looking out for a bet on a goal by the visitors after the 70th minute.
*Odds are approximate and may vary across different bookmakers.
Editor's Prediction
Newcastle enter the derby on the back of a psychological slump following a heavy defeat to Barcelona, with midfield injuries and poor home form adding to their woes. However, these challenges might actually spur the Magpies on. Sunderland struggle on the road and face significant squad issues of their own. Given that Eddie Howe's side need to make amends in front of their fans, we are backing them to secure a 2-1 victory.
Nevertheless, we'll steer clear of betting on the outcome and instead focus on the suggested total Newcastle corners over 5.5. The Magpies frequently capitalize on set pieces at home, overwhelming opponents with corners. They will likely take the initiative in this match, so expect more of the same.
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Betting Tips: Newcastle United - Sunderland
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