Monaco vs Aston Villa Prediction 21 January 2025

🔊 Can Monaco secure an early playoff spot in the Champions League? To do so, it's preferable for them to win the match of the 7th round, which the team will play at the Louis II Stadium against Aston Villa. The Birmingham side is already through to the next stage, but they can finish in the top 8 and skip one of the rounds. Therefore, Unai Emery will have a tough time deciding on the lineup. There is no clear favorite in the upcoming match, so we will consider different options to make the prediction optimal.

📊 Head-to-Head

The opponents have not met before.

👑 Monaco

The New Year started unsuccessfully for Monaco. First, the team lost to PSG in the French Super Cup, conceding the only goal in the second minute of added time. After that, they were knocked out of the French Cup, losing to Reims after a penalty shootout (1-2). And in Ligue 1, they managed to earn only one point in two rounds. Last weekend, they even lost to Montpellier, who are at the bottom of the league table (1-2). All this does not add to their mood ahead of the Champions League, where a really strong opponent awaits. In the Champions League, Monaco is in 16th place, but this is clearly better than PSG. Adi Hütter's team has negative experiences with English clubs this season. For instance, in the last round, they conceded three unanswered goals from Arsenal in London. Monaco has at least two losses in their attacking line. While Folarin Balogun often starts, George Ilenikhena mainly gets playing minutes at the end of matches. The participation of Stefan Singo and Denis Zakaria is also in question.

🦁 Aston Villa

Aston Villa is performing well in the current Champions League campaign. For some time, the team even led the standings. Now they are confidently sitting in fifth place. At the end of last year, the Birmingham side experienced a slump. However, after "Boxing Day," the situation normalized. At least the team hasn't lost in five consecutive matches, including in the FA Cup, where they managed to beat West Ham (2-1). Moreover, Unai Emery's side can take credit for a draw with Arsenal (2-2) last weekend. They came back from a two-goal deficit. Before facing Monaco, John McGinn and Pau Torres are injured and would likely be starters if they were fit. Diego Carlos will miss the match due to an accumulation of yellow cards, although he is also injured. Ross Barkley will not play for medical reasons, but he has received little playing time at Aston Villa this season.

⚽️ Goal Prediction

Aston Villa has two excellent forwards who have scored 17 goals combined in the English Premier League. Watkins and Duran can always be expected to pose a threat to opposing goals. However, injuries to defenders mean that the team rarely keeps a clean sheet. Therefore, in 8 of Aston Villa's last 9 matches, at least three goals were scored. The exception was a match against Everton (1-0), but that was more due to the opponent's style. Thus, we suggest betting on total goals over 2.5.

🚩 Corner Prediction

In the Champions League, Monaco has an advantage in corners - 5.5 compared to 4.2. This can be explained by the fact that they often had to come from behind. In matches involving these opponents, there is an average of 8.8 corners. Therefore, we lean towards betting on total corners under 9.5.

📝 Match Prediction

A slight preference before the match is given to Monaco. This can be explained by motivation and their home stadium advantage. On the other hand, Aston Villa is generally not accustomed to European competitions, especially the Champions League. Therefore, Unai Emery is unlikely to field a deep reserve squad, although some rotation can be expected. Monaco's squad is quite young and lacks experience, and they haven't been able to break their losing streak so far. In such a situation, we suggest a potential exact score of 1-2.

Considering that Monaco is seen as a slight favorite, Aston Villa has high odds for a win. However, in the Champions League, they have only suffered one unfortunate defeat to Brugge due to a defensive error that gifted a goal to the opponent. Therefore, we suggest betting on Aston Villa not to lose. Monaco has only one win in their last eight matches.