San Lorenzo vs Boca Juniors Prediction 20 September 2026
📢 San Lorenzo are currently outside the play-off places in tenth position, so they need to close the gap on the top eight as quickly as possible. Boca Juniors are in a more comfortable position, sitting fifth, and come into this fixture on the back of a lengthy unbeaten run. The hosts place their main emphasis on defensive solidity and are rarely involved in high-scoring matches, which could have a significant bearing on how the game plays out.
Head-to-Head
📊 San Lorenzo and Boca Juniors have met 39 times in official matches. The hosts have won 16, the visitors 13, with 10 draws. San Lorenzo have scored 51 goals in total across these meetings, Boca Juniors 48. On average, the two sides score 1.13 goals in the first half and 1.41 in the second, giving an average match total of 2.54 goals.
Head-to-head statistics San Lorenzo - Boca Juniors
San Lorenzo Team Overview
San Lorenzo have 11 points and sit tenth ahead of the tenth round, not far off the top eight. The team's most notable characteristic remains their extremely low scoring: across their last ten matches they average just 0.5 goals scored and 0.7 conceded per game. Over that run they have won three and lost five, so a solid defence has not always been enough to pick up points. They are particularly compact at home - in their previous 11 matches on their own ground, no more than two goals have been scored.
Match Results: San Lorenzo
Boca Juniors Team Overview
Boca Juniors sit fifth with 14 points and come into this match on a long unbeaten run. In their last ten games they have won six and drawn four, averaging 1.7 goals scored and just 0.7 conceded per match. Boca Juniors are noticeably more effective in attack than their opponents, while being broadly comparable defensively. Away from home, though, their record is less convincing - they have failed to win in eight of their previous nine away matches.
Match Results: Boca Juniors
Latest news
San Lorenzo
❌ San Lorenzo head into the match with a very difficult injury situation: Diego Eraso, Martin Rio, Gonzalo Abrego, Gustavo Del Prete, Nicolas Blanco, Nahuel Barrios, Ezequiel Cerutti, Gaston Hernandez and Daniel Herrera are all unavailable through injury. Barrios is out for the rest of the season, while Cerutti and Hernandez are not expected to return before mid-November.
Boca Juniors
Boca Juniors also have a lengthy absentee list: Camilo Rey Domenech, Tomás Aranda, Ayrton Costa, Adam Bareiro and Agustín Marchesín are all out injured, while Rodrigo Battaglia has returned to training but remains a doubt for the match.
Total Goals Prediction
San Lorenzo have played 11 consecutive matches with a total goals under 2.5, supported both by the trend itself and their seasonal scoring numbers: the team average 0.77 goals scored per match and 0.85 conceded. Their last 10 home matches also point to low scoring, with averages of just 0.8 goals scored and 0.6 conceded at home. There are no contradicting trends, and a bet on Total Goals - Under 2.5 looks logical at odds of 1.44*.
Reliable Bet
San Lorenzo have scored fewer than 1.5 goals in 15 of their last 16 matches, and their average for the season is just 0.77 goals per game. In their last 10 home matches they have averaged only 0.8 goals as well. Given those numbers, San Lorenzo Team Total - Under 1.5 at 1.22* looks very solid.
*Odds are indicative and may vary across different bookmakers.
Correct Score Prediction
Based on statistics and probability distribution, the algorithm identifies three most likely scorelines: 0-1 (15.66%), 1-1 (13.15%) and 0-0 (12.33%). A narrow Boca Juniors win by 0-1 has the highest probability, though the draws of 1-1 and 0-0 are close behind. This reflects a general tendency towards low-scoring, closely contested matches between these two sides.
⭐ Editorial Prediction
Boca Juniors are considered favourites for this match given their superior quality and excellent form, but winning away from home will not be straightforward. San Lorenzo tend to play in a fairly closed manner, and no more than two goals have been scored in each of their last 11 matches. Both sides are solid defensively, so even Boca Juniors' attacking potential does not necessarily mean the game will open up. Our pick is Total Goals - Under 2.5.
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Betting Tips: San Lorenzo - Boca Juniors
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Comparison of Teams Stats
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