Monza vs Sassuolo Prediction 18 September 2026
📢 The fifth round of Serie A gets under way with Monza against Sassuolo. It may not be the headline fixture of the round, but the match itself promises to be an interesting one. The black-and-greens have made a lively start to the season, much as they did a year ago. Monza, back in the top flight, have not had everything go their way so far, but their matches have consistently been entertaining and high-scoring. The Brianteo factor also helps to level things up before kick-off.
🔁 We will be updating this prediction on the day of the match. The Latest News section will cover any important developments before kick-off.
Monza have not lost to Sassuolo in any of their four head-to-head meetings since 2011.
📊 The two sides have met just four times in recent years, and Monza hold a surprisingly strong record in those meetings: three wins and one draw. The most recent head-to-head matches came in the 2023/24 season, when Monza won both fixtures 1-0 - home and away.
Head-to-head statistics Monza - Sassuolo
Monza are paying the price for their poor finishing
🔴 Monza had a real struggle to secure promotion to Serie A, and they are finding life in the top flight just as difficult. After four rounds, the Brianzoli have just one point and sit 18th - in the relegation zone. That kind of start is an immediate reminder of what their main objective will be over the next nine months: staying up. That said, Monza are far from hopeless - in almost every match they have looked no worse than their opponents, but their finishing has let them down repeatedly.
⚪ A telling example was their last away trip, to Lecce, where Monza lost 3-2. Despite playing away from home, they were the more assertive side and came out ahead on most statistical measures: 61% possession, 19-7 in shots, 11-3 in shots on target, 6-3 in chances created, and an xG of 3.03 against 1.16. Losing with those numbers makes it all the more frustrating. But the Brianzoli put themselves in an extremely difficult position by making a disastrous start - by the 21st minute the score was already 3-1 against them, and they were unable to recover from there.
Match Results: Monza
Sassuolo hold their own even when up against top-tier opponents.
🟢 Sassuolo are in their second season back in Serie A following their return to the top flight, and their results have been noticeably more convincing. After four matchdays they have seven points and sit ninth. Their fixture list has been far from straightforward, having already faced Atalanta, Bologna and Juventus.
⚫ It was against Juventus that Sassuolo played last weekend, and they produced one of the most eye-catching wins of the opening weeks, winning 3-2. Despite being clear underdogs, the hosts matched their opponents and went ahead three times. Juventus found an answer on each occasion, but Sassuolo did not fold and kept looking for chances at the other end. Their reward was a winning goal in the 90+4th minute, which earned them all three points.
Match Results: Sassuolo Calcio
Latest news
Monza
❌ Monza head into the fifth round with a number of injury concerns. Jan Żelkowski is recovering from a foot injury, Ricardo Mangas from an ankle injury, while Idrissa Touré and Matteo Pessina continue to be treated for knee injuries. Patrick Ciurria remains doubtful with a muscular problem.
Sassuolo Calcio
❌ Sassuolo's injury list is even longer. Edoardo Pierangolo and Fali Candé are both continuing their recovery from cruciate ligament ruptures, Daniel Boloca from a knee injury, and Cristian Volpato from a thigh injury. Jay Idzes is expected to be out until around the end of October, while Ismaël Koné is unavailable until the start of November. Sebastian Walukiewicz's participation also remains in doubt due to a muscle injury.
🔁 Update - 18 September, 6:17 UTC:
- Sassuolo head coach Alberto Aquilani will be forced to reshuffle his centre-back pairing due to Jay Idzes's injury. According to ANSA, Duje Ćaleta-Car looks the most likely candidate to partner Fedde Leysen, with the Croatian having played just nine minutes this season - coming on as a substitute for Idzes in the previous match. The lack of understanding between this new centre-back pairing could have a significant impact on the visitors' defensive play.
⚽️ Goals Prediction
There has been no shortage of action involving Monza so far: in four rounds the Brianzoli have scored 6 goals but conceded 11. Sassuolo are equally prolific - their matches have produced 15 goals in total across both sides. Both teams have plenty to play for here, so a closed-off game seems unlikely. Our pick is Both Teams to Score - Yes at 1.67*.
🚩 Corners Prediction
Both sides have been fairly modest in the corners department so far. Sassuolo average 4.5 corners per match, while Monza's figure is even lower at 3.8. With numbers like those, a high volume of set pieces is hard to expect, particularly if the game gets bogged down in midfield for long periods. We're going with Total Corners - Under 8.5 at 2.00*.
🟨 Yellow Cards Prediction
Monza are one of the most disciplined sides in Serie A at the start of the season, averaging just 1.3 yellow cards per match - only four clubs have a lower figure. Playing at home, they are unlikely to find themselves repeatedly fouling to stop opposition attacks, so our selection is Sassuolo not to lose on yellow cards.
* Odds are indicative and may vary across different bookmakers.
⭐️ Editorial Prediction
According to the bookmakers, Sassuolo are slight favourites, but there is no significant advantage for the away side here. Monza, despite their poor results, are far from hopeless in terms of their play and will certainly not give up points at home without a fight - which gives genuine reason to back the hosts. We therefore expect an open match with chances at both ends. An additional factor is Sassuolo's extended scoring run: at least three goals have been scored in 6 of their last 7 Serie A matches. Our main bet is Total Goals - Over 2.5. Expected score: 2-2.
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Betting Tips: Monza - Sassuolo Calcio
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