Sao Paulo vs Corinthians Prediction, H2H Stats & Statistical Bets 20 July 2025
🔊 The 15th round of the Brazilian Serie A features another chapter in the historic derby between São Paulo and Corinthians. Both teams are navigating challenging times: São Paulo have not secured a win in their last five league matches, while Corinthians have just snapped a four-game winless streak. Our prediction for this clash takes into account the current struggles of both teams, their recent performances, and their standings in the league. This upcoming game could be a pivotal moment for both clubs.
Head-to-Head
The last official encounter between the teams took place on 26 January 2025 and ended with a 3-1 scoreline. Here's a comparative breakdown of that matchup (with São Paulo as the home side):
- possession percentage: 49% vs 51%;
- corner kicks: 2 vs 5;
- fouls: 15 vs 15;
- yellow cards: 2 vs 3;
- shots on target: 5 vs 4.
📊 Statistical preview of official encounters between São Paulo and Corinthians:
- 62 matches played;
- home wins: 18, away wins: 23, draws: 21;
- goals scored: 75 for São Paulo, 87 for Corinthians;
- average goals in the first half: 1.16, second half: 1.45;
- average total goals per match: 2.61.
Head-to-head statistics Sao Paulo - Corinthians
Sao Paulo Team Overview
The team's last official match took place on during the 14th round of Brazil's Serie A (Bragantino as the home side, São Paulo as the visitors). The game ended in a 2-2 draw.
Here are the match stats (São Paulo vs Bragantino):
- possession: 52% vs 48%;
- corners: 4 vs 6;
- fouls: 18 vs 11;
- yellow cards: 0 vs 3;
- shots on target: 5 vs 3.
🔴 São Paulo currently sit in 16th place on the table with 13 points after 14 rounds (2 wins, 7 draws, 5 losses), scoring 12 goals and conceding 18. At home, they have earned 9 points (2 wins, 3 draws, 2 losses), netting 6 goals and allowing 8. In their last four out of five Série A matches, São Paulo suffered defeats against Mirassol (0-2), Bahia (1-2), Vasco da Gama (1-3), and Flamengo (0-2). Only in the most recent round did they manage to secure a draw away at Bragantino (2-2). A win over Corinthians could see the Tricolor close in on 12th-placed Grêmio and further distance themselves from the relegation zone. However, a loss could see them plunge into the "basement of the table."
Match Results: Sao Paulo
Corinthians Team Overview
The visitors last played an official match on during the 14th round of the Brazilian Serie A, where they faced Ceará away. The game ended with a 0-1 victory for Corinthians.
Here's the match statistics (Corinthians vs Ceará):
- possession: 55% vs 45%;
- corners: 3 vs 7;
- fouls: 13 vs 16;
- yellow cards: 2 vs 3;
- shots on target: 2 vs 2.
⚫ Corinthians enter the derby sitting ninth in the league standings, amassing 19 points from 14 matches (5 wins, 4 draws, and 5 losses, with a goal difference of 15:17). The team navigated a challenging stretch in the early part of the season but has shown significant improvement and increased confidence in recent rounds. They recently secured a crucial away victory over Ceara (1-0), snapping a winless streak and slightly improving their league position. However, prior results were inconsistent, including a loss to Bragantino (2-1) and a draw with Gremio. Away from home, Corinthians still appear unreliable, managing just one win in seven away games, alongside 3 draws and 3 losses. Offensively, the club plays with boldness, maintaining possession and creating chances, but their defense often falters. This explains why Corinthians concede nearly as many goals as they score, making each of their matches quite unpredictable. A victory for "Timao" could bring them closer to the Copa Libertadores spots, narrowing the gap to the top six to a minimum.
Match Results: Corinthians
Prediction for the 1st half
Head-to-Head Matches:
- Total encounters - 62;
- First-half victories at home - 10; for the visitors - 7; draws - 14;
- Average first-half total: 1.16;
- Today's home side averages 0.52 goals, while the visitors average 0.65.
First-Half Statistics: São Paulo (home) vs Corinthians (away)
- Tournament matches played: 7 vs 7;
- Victories: 1 (14.29%) vs 1 (14.29%);
- Losses: 2 (28.57%) vs 3 (42.86%);
- Draws: 4 (57.14%) vs 3 (42.86%);
- Average goals scored: 0.86 vs 1.29;
- Average goals conceded: 0.57 vs 1.
Last 10 Matches (overall):
- Wins: 1 vs 1;
- Losses: 2 vs 1;
- Draws: 7 vs 8;
- Average first-half total: 0.8 (scored - 0.3, conceded - 0.5) vs 0.4 (scored - 0.2, conceded - 0.2).
- Corinthians have drawn the first half in 8 of their last 9 matches.
- Corinthians have drawn the first half in their last 5 away games.
Outcome Prediction
Head-to-Head Matches:
- Total encounters - 62;
- Home victories - 18, Away victories - 23, Draws - 21.
Statistics: São Paulo vs Corinthians
- Matches played in the tournament: 14 vs 14;
- Wins: 2 vs 5;
- Win percentage: 14% vs 36%;
- Losses: 5 vs 5;
- Draws: 7 vs 4.
Last 10 Matches:
- Wins: 3 vs 4;
- Losses: 5 vs 3;
- Draws: 2 vs 3.
Total Goals Prediction
Head-to-Head Matches:
- The current home team averages - 1.21 goals, visitors - 1.4;
- Average total goals in head-to-head matches - 2.61;
- Both teams scored: all-time - 37 times; on the home team's field - 15 times.
Statistics: São Paulo vs Corinthians
- Average total in the tournament: 2.14 vs 2.29;
- Average goals scored: 0.86 vs 1.07;
- Average total in the first half: 0.43 vs 0.36;
- Average total in the second half: 0.43 vs 0.71;
- São Paulo: average total at home in the tournament - 0.86;
- Corinthians: average total away in the tournament - 0.57;
- Last 10 matches (average total): 1.1 (home - 1.2) vs 0.7 (away - 0.67).
- São Paulo have scored in 14 consecutive head-to-head matches against this team.
- São Paulo have scored at home in 11 consecutive head-to-head matches against this team (Serie A).
- São Paulo have scored at home in 10 consecutive head-to-head matches against this team.
- São Paulo have scored in 7 consecutive head-to-head matches against this team (Serie A).
Corners Prediction
São Paulo: Statistics
- Season: average total in the tournament - 4; at home - 5.29;
- Last 10 matches: average total - 3.8; at home - 4.6.
Corinthians: Statistics
- Season: average total in the tournament - 4.64, away - 3.71;
- Last 10 matches: average total - 5.9; away - 4.83.
- Corinthians have taken more than 3.5 corners in 9 of the last 10 head-to-head encounters (Serie A).
Cards Prediction
Head-to-Head Matches
- Average total yellow cards in head-to-head matches - 4.22 (2.11 for the home side and 2.11 for the visitors);
- Average total yellow cards on the home field - 3.93 (2.16 for the home side and 1.77 for the visitors).
São Paulo: Statistics
- Season: average total in the tournament - 3.43; at home - 4;
- Last 10 matches: average total - 2.6; at home - 3.4.
Corinthians: Statistics
- Season: average total in the tournament - 3.14, away - 3.29;
- Last 10 matches: average total - 3.1; away - 3.33.
Both Teams to Score Prediction
Head-to-Head Matches:
- Total encounters - 62;
- Both teams scored all-time - 37 times;
- On the home team's field - 15 times.
Statistics: São Paulo vs Corinthians
- Total matches played in the tournament: 14 vs 14;
- Total matches in the season where both teams scored (BTTS): 8 vs 6;
- BTTS for São Paulo at home - 4 (57%);
- BTTS for Corinthians away - 3 (43%).
Last 10 Matches:
- Total BTTS matches: 7 vs 3;
- BTTS for São Paulo at home - 4 (80%);
- BTTS for Corinthians away - 2 (33%).
- São Paulo have both scored and conceded in 11 of the last 12 head-to-head meetings between these teams.
- São Paulo have both scored and conceded in six consecutive head-to-head matches against this team (Serie A).
⭐ Editorial Prediction
São Paulo and Corinthians approach this derby in similar circumstances-both teams are struggling with their results and are searching for ways to improve. The hosts typically play with determination at home, but they've recently lacked consistency and precision in attack. Corinthians, on the other hand, appear slightly more confident, yet they frequently make defensive errors on the road. Expect a tense and uncompromising game with strong competition and chances at both ends. Recent match statistics suggest the likelihood of goals from both sides. Editorial prediction: over 1.5 goals in the match.No comments
Betting Tips: Sao Paulo - Corinthians
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