Ajax vs Saint-Gilloise Prediction 20 February 2025
๐ Will Union Saint-Gilloise be able to add intrigue in the return leg of the Europa League playoff match? On their home turf, they lost by two goals, although they played at least as well. However, Ajax adapted better to the poor quality of the pitch. The pitch at the โJohan Cruyff Arenaโ is more suited for combination football. Perhaps this time, the Belgian team will manage to show their potential. For our part, we will consider different options to make the prediction optimal. Let's remind that the winner of this pair will play Eintracht or Lyon in the playoffs.
Head-to-Head
The only head-to-head meeting took place last week as part of the current matchup. The hosts started the match strong. They even scored in the middle of the first half, but VAR disallowed the goal due to offside. The second half began with a substitution of Daniele Rugani, who got injured. However, Josip Sutalo was no less reliable. As a result, at the end of the hour mark, Kristian Rasmussen opened the scoring, and in the middle of the second half, 16-year-old Djordje Mokio doubled the lead, setting the final score (2:0).
Head-to-head statistics Ajax - Saint-Gilloise
Ajax Amsterdam Team Overview
Ajax played in Brussels with a far from full-strength squad. For example, Jorrit Mokio, who played in the holding midfield position, has only played a few matches for the senior team. This is largely due to losses in the squad. For instance, Regeer, van Axel Dongen, Weghorst, Henderson, and Wijndal are injured. The situation is complicated by the fact that Baas, Kaplan, and Taylor are ill, so they are unlikely to play in the upcoming match. Despite these personnel losses, Ajax has won five matches in a row across different tournaments. For example, last weekend they defeated Heracles in the Eredivisie (4-0), thereby strengthening their lead in the standings, pulling two points clear of PSV with a game in hand.
Match Results: Ajax Amsterdam
Union Saint-Gilloise Team Overview
Union Saint-Gilloise is currently in third place in the Belgian Pro League. However, the gap with Genk seems insurmountable. Catching up with Brugge is still possible, as there is a difference of two wins between the teams. Especially since their opponent dropped points last weekend, but Union Saint-Gilloise failed to add to their tally, losing to Mechelen (0-1). Pokorny's team played better, but none of their nine shots on goal hit the target. As a result, their 13-match unbeaten streak in the league came to an end. It should be noted that Union Saint-Gilloise does not have any significant personnel losses. Alessio Castro-Montes missed a month due to injury, but he is close to recovery. Camille Van de Perre will definitely not play, as he was injured in the match against Rangers and has missed four matches.
Match Results: Union Saint-Gilloise
๐จ Referee and Yellow Cards
The main referee for the match is Chris Kavanagh (England). This season, he officiated only one Europa League match, Twente against Fenerbahce, where he showed seven yellow cards. However, if we consider his last 100 games, this figure is almost halved (3.89).
This season, Union Saint-Gilloise has the advantage in yellow cards (3.6 versus 2.3). On average, there are six yellow cards in matches involving them. However, last week, both teams received only one warning in their head-to-head match. Therefore, we will rely on the referee's statistics when choosing a bet on total yellow cards under 5.5.
โฝ๏ธ Goal Prediction
The head-to-head match last week was somewhat disappointing in terms of scoring. This was largely due to the quality of the pitch. In Amsterdam, the opponents should redeem themselves. In five consecutive matches at the "Johan Cruyff Arena" in the Europa League, at least three goals were scored. The same applies to six away matches for Union Saint-Gilloise. Therefore, a bet on total goals over 2.5 seems justified.
๐ฉ Corner Prediction
Union Saint-Gilloise has the advantage in corners in the Europa League (5 versus 3.3). In the home match, they surpassed Ajax in this indicator (6:4). Considering that the Belgian team still needs to recover, it is highly likely that the bet - Union Saint-Gilloise will not lose on corners - will play out.
Editorial Prediction
Ajax has a comfortable lead going into the second leg. However, they are missing nearly half of their squad for various reasons. Nonetheless, the team is in form, so they are still considered favorites in the upcoming match. Union Saint-Gilloise will take risks, make mistakes, and leave space on their half of the field, so Ajax will have chances to score. In terms of execution, they clearly surpass their opponent, so we note a potential exact score of 2:1, especially since it has been recorded in 3 out of the last 4 home matches of Francesco Farioli's team.
If Ajax scores first, it will completely kill the intrigue in the match. In such a situation, the players are unlikely to increase the intensity of the game on the field, especially since they didn't do so in the first match of this head-to-head, each receiving only one warning. Therefore, as a key bet, we suggest a total yellow cards under 5.5.
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Betting Tips: Ajax Amsterdam - Union Saint-Gilloise
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in 15 of last 16 home games.
in 21 of last 22 Ajax Amsterdam games.in last 11 Ajax Amsterdam home games.in 10 of last 11 Ajax Amsterdam games (Europa League).in 6 of last 7 Union Saint-Gilloise games.in 11 of last 12 Ajax Amsterdam games.in last 9 Union Saint-Gilloise games (Europa League).in 8 of last 9 Union Saint-Gilloise games.
Comparison of Teams Stats
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