Istanbul Basaksehir vs Kasimpasa Prediction 30 August 2026
🔉 In the third round of the Turkish Süper Lig, Başakşehir host Kasımpaşa. The hosts started the season with a convincing win but then slipped up away at Trabzonspor. Kasımpaşa, by contrast, are unbeaten so far and come into the match in good spirits. The head-to-head record, however, favours Başakşehir - they have gone ten league meetings without defeat in this fixture. Can Kasımpaşa end that run, or will the hosts continue to dominate this rivalry?
Head-to-Head
📊 In official matches between İstanbul Başakşehir and Kasımpaşa, the two sides have met 38 times. The hosts have won 24 of those, the visitors 8, with six draws. Başakşehir also have the edge in goals scored: 79 to Kasımpaşa's 42. On average, 1.42 goals have been scored per first half and 1.76 per second half, giving an overall match average of 3.18 goals.
Head-to-head statistics Istanbul Basaksehir - Kasimpasa
Istanbul Basaksehir Team Overview
It has been a mixed start to the season for the Istanbul side. In the opening round they comfortably dealt with Kocaelispor (2-0), registering 17 shots and creating chances worth 2.74 xG. The second round brought a defeat to Trabzonspor (1-2), though the team fought to the end and did not look out of their depth. Başakşehir currently sit on three points with a goal difference of 3-2 - a start that could be described as modest rather than disastrous.
Home ground has been a reliable fortress for Başakşehir. They rarely slip up there, and the first match of the season showed the hosts are capable of dominating and applying pressure. Including last season, they have won 6 of their last 7 home Super Lig matches. Eldor Shomurodov has made a bright start to the season, scoring 2 of the team's 3 goals.
Match Results: Istanbul Basaksehir
Kasimpasa Istanbul Team Overview
It has been a decent start for the visitors. Four points from two matches, no defeats: first a draw with Trabzonspor (1-1), in which Kasımpaşa created 1.48 xG and had nine shots, then a win away at Çorum (1-0). They have begun the season with some confidence, and the results do not look like a fluke - they are creating chances and capable of making life difficult for opponents.
There is a concern, though: Kasımpaşa are allowing their opponents too many chances. That could prove costly against Başakşehir, who are good at consistently getting the ball into the box and putting pressure on defences. On top of that, Kasımpaşa have not beaten Başakşehir in any of their last 10 league head-to-head meetings. The loss of Kâmil Çerekcî to an Achilles injury is another blow - he is not expected back until November.
Match Results: Kasimpasa Istanbul
Match Result Prediction
İstanbul Başakşehir have won 6 of their last 7 home matches, which is reflected in the corresponding trend. The club have also gone unbeaten at home in 11 of their last 12 matches, and their average goals scored at home this season stands at 2, with virtually nothing conceded - 0 home goals against this season. This points to a high probability of a home win in the upcoming match. Başakşehir to win is priced at 1.63*.
Total Goals Prediction
In 12 of İstanbul Başakşehir's last 14 matches, the total has gone under 3.5 goals, which supports the trend. Both teams also post relatively modest scoring averages: Başakşehir score 1.5 goals per game on average, while Kasımpaşa average 1 goal. Kasımpaşa have also conceded just 0.5 goals per game on average this season. All of this points to a high probability of a low-scoring match. Total Goals - Under 3.5 is priced at 1.40*.
Corners Prediction
Kasımpaşa have had fewer than 3.5 corners in 6 of their last 7 away matches, which points to a clear tendency towards a low corner count on the road. This makes the Kasımpaşa Team Total Corners - Under 3.5 at 2.06* a reasonable bet.
Safe Bet
Istanbul Başakşehir have gone unbeaten at home in 11 of their last 12 matches. The team have also been solid on their own ground this season, without a single home defeat and with a healthy goal difference. This bet has consistent trend and statistical support. The bet - Istanbul Başakşehir not to lose at 1.15*.
Correct Score Prediction
According to the algorithm's calculations, the most likely outcomes are: 1:0 (17.51%), 0:0 (12.39%) and 2:0 (10.75%). A narrow home win is the most probable result, though a goalless draw also has a notable probability. A 2:0 home win rounds off the top three most likely outcomes.
*Odds are indicative and may vary across different bookmakers.
⭐ Editor's Prediction
Başakşehir are traditionally strong at home, particularly against Kasımpaşa. The hosts are building momentum, their attack looks sharp, and Shomurodov could extend his scoring run. Kasımpaşa have started the season reasonably well, but their defence is vulnerable, and the psychological weight of their winless run in head-to-head meetings could be a factor. We're backing a Başakşehir win. Predicted score: 2-0.
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Betting Tips: Istanbul Basaksehir - Kasimpasa Istanbul
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