Macara vs Santos Prediction 20 August 2026
🔊 Macará host Santos in the second leg of their Copa Sudamericana Round of 16 tie. The Brazilians won the first leg 2-1, so Macará need to win by at least two goals to advance directly to the quarter-finals. That is a serious ask for the Ecuadorians, but the match is being played in Ambato at an altitude of around 2,500 metres, which is the main factor in the home side's favour.
Head-to-Head
📊 The first match in São Paulo was the first official meeting between Macará and Santos. The Brazilians were trailing after an early goal from Franco Posse, but levelled before half-time through Gabriel Barbosa, and in the second half Willian Arán scored the winner. Santos thus hold a narrow advantage ahead of the return leg, but the tie remains open.
Head-to-head statistics Macara - Santos
Macara Team Overview
Macara head into the second leg in decent shape domestically. After losing to Santos at the weekend, they drew 1-1 with Universidad Católica to hold on to second place in Serie A.
Going into the Santos tie, Macara had been in good form: wins over Barcelona de Guayaquil and Guayaquil City in the league, and in the Copa Sudamericana group stage they showed they could defend solidly - their final two group matches, against Alianza Atlético and América de Cali, both ended 0-0.
The first leg also showed the gap in quality is not as wide as it might have seemed. Macara scored as early as the fifth minute, but offered almost nothing going forward after that. Santos had 71% possession, put eight shots on target to Macara's one, created three clear chances, and goalkeeper Rodrigo Rodríguez was called into action six times.
That is why the key question ahead of the second leg is whether Macara can turn the altitude advantage into sustained pressure. In the first match, Guillermo Sanguinetti's side sat deep for long stretches and created very little after scoring. The second leg will demand something different: they will need to attack far more, which automatically opens up space for Santos on the counter.
Match Results: Macara
Santos Team Overview
Santos followed up their win over Macará with another strong result, beating Vasco da Gama 3-0 away from home. Cuca's side settled the match in the final 22 minutes: Gabigol opened the scoring on 68 minutes, with Willian Arán and Luan Perez adding the rest. Vasco had more of the ball - 57% to 43% - but Santos created three big chances and put five shots on target.
That is a relevant indicator ahead of the trip to Ambato: Santos do not need to dominate possession to generate the more dangerous opportunities. They can sit back, wait for mistakes, and use the pace of their attacking players.
In the first leg against Macará, that approach paid off after the break. The Brazilians were behind but kept working the ball and gradually built pressure. Gabigol equalised in first-half stoppage time, and Arán scored the winner from a corner.
The altitude in Ambato will be a factor, and Macará may well control large portions of the match. But the Vasco game showed that Santos can create chances without the ball and stay compact in defence. Their recent form adds another point in their favour - over their last eight matches, Peixe have won five and drawn two.
Match Results: Santos
🟨 Yellow Cards Prediction
This match looks set to involve a lot of physical duels. Macará will need to keep pushing the intensity of their attacks, particularly if they fail to score first. Santos, meanwhile, will be keen to disrupt quick transitions and slow the game down. The first leg produced 10 yellow cards - four for Santos and six for Macará - so a combative approach from both sides from the opening minutes wouldn't be a surprise. Prediction: Total Yellow Cards - Over 3.5.
⚽ Goals Prediction
Despite having plenty of motivation to win, the Ecuadorians will also need to be cautious defensively. That said, the altitude factor and the need to overturn the deficit make a home goal quite plausible. Santos only need one goal to force Macará into scoring three to go through automatically. In the first leg, Santos dominated territorially and created three clear chances but scored only twice. With a more defensive approach this time, the Brazilians' attacking output could be lower. Prediction: Total Goals - Under 2.5 at 1.76*.
🚩 Corners Prediction
The likely match scenario here favours the home side. Macará will need to push forward, and especially so in the second half if they find themselves behind. Santos may deliberately avoid prolonged possession and look to exploit transitions instead. In the first leg, the Brazilians earned five corners to Macará's one, but that was with Peixe controlling 71% of possession. The balance should shift in the return fixture, with the hosts delivering more balls into the box and working the flanks more frequently. Prediction: Macará Total Corners - Over 4.5 at 1.47*.
*Odds are indicative and may vary depending on the bookmaker.
⭐ Editor's Pick
Macará came away from the first leg with an uncomfortable scoreline, but playing at altitude at home gives the Ecuadorians a chance to change the dynamic of the tie. The problem is that Santos are in good form right now and scored three away goals against Vasco da Gama. That said, expecting the same attacking dominance from the Brazilians as they showed in São Paulo would be optimistic.
My expected scenario is that Macará will carry more of the initiative and create enough pressure to score, but Santos, backed by their aggregate lead and quality in attack, should be able to close space and see out the result over two legs. The final bet: Both Teams to Score - Yes. It has come in in each of Macará's last six matches and in 6 of Santos's last 7 games in the Copa Sudamericana. Predicted result: 1-1, with Santos advancing to the quarter-finals on aggregate.
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Betting Tips: Macara - Santos
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