Santos vs Macara Prediction 13 August 2026
🔊 Santos and Macara begin their fight for a Copa Sudamericana quarter-final spot. For the Brazilians, this match carries special significance because of the domestic league. Cuca's side are in the lower half of the Serie A table. So the Sudamericana is now becoming one of Peixe's chances to salvage a difficult season. Macara head to Brazil in a much more positive mood. The Ecuadorians have extended their unbeaten run and gained an extra emotional boost ahead of the first leg of the tie.
Head-to-Head
📊 Santos and Macará have never met in an official match before. For the Ecuadorian club, this is a historic occasion against a Brazilian opponent of this stature: Macará have never beaten a Brazilian team in an international tournament in their history. So there is no head-to-head record to look at here, and it is far more important to focus on the tournament journey of both sides.
Head-to-head statistics Santos - Macara
Santos Team Overview
Santos had a difficult start to the tournament. A defeat to Deportivo Cuenca in the first round and four subsequent draws left Peixe on the verge of an early exit. However, a win over the same Cuenca (3:0) in the final round allowed the Brazilians to finish second and keep their campaign alive. The additional round, though, was a completely different story. Santos first thrashed Universidad Central in Venezuela - 4:1, then won at home (4:2). Over 180 minutes the team scored eight goals, with three Gabriels - Barbosa, Bontempo and Menino - particularly impressive in attack.
The main news ahead of the last 16 is the return of Neymar. The 34-year-old has already scored two goals in the group stage, both coming in matches against Deportivo Recoleta. Since returning he has had the chance to play in the knockout rounds and is now set to be one of Santos's main sources of creativity.
Gabriel Barbosa deserves a special mention. He has four goals in this year's Sudamericana - the team's best tally. His next goal will be his 100th in a Santos shirt. That is extra motivation for the forward, who already got on the scoresheet in the second leg against Universidad Central after returning from injury.
But the Brazilian club's condition ahead of this match cannot be called ideal. On 9 August the team lost to Atletico Paranaense (0:2) and found themselves back in the Série A relegation zone. The match was played at Vila Belmiro, which makes the defeat particularly painful: Santos failed to make use of home advantage and barely created enough danger in front of goal.
Santos's main weapon is the combination of Neymar, Barbosa and Bontempo. The first is responsible for chance creation, the second for finishing, and the third can add intensity from deep. If the hosts manage to get this trio working together quickly, it will be extremely difficult for Macará to keep a clean sheet.
Match Results: Santos
Macara Team Overview
Macara were one of the standout discoveries of the group stage. Guillermo Sanguinetti's side made it through the group stage of an international tournament for the first time in their history, and went on to win their group outright. What's more, the Ecuadorians went unbeaten across all six matches and conceded just three goals.
Those numbers say a lot about Sanguinetti's team. Macara don't look to dominate possession or impose themselves on the game. Their main weapons are compactness, discipline and quick transitions from defence.
The key figure is goalkeeper Rodrigo Rodríguez. The Uruguayan kept a clean sheet in four of the six group stage matches, and including the preliminary round, Macara have gone seven matches in the tournament without a defeat.
In attack, the main threat comes from Franco Posse. The Uruguayan has scored two goals in the Sudamericana and remains the team's primary reference point up front. He can not only finish attacks but also drop deeper, creating space for his teammates. Another player Santos will need to keep a close eye on is Matías Miranda. The Argentine number ten featured in all six group matches, scored one goal and provided an assist in the win over Tigre. His main weapons are movement between the lines and shots from distance.
Macara arrive in Brazil on the back of an excellent result. On 9 August, the team beat Barcelona in Guayaquil 2-1. This is no mere statistical footnote: the Ecuadorians won away at one of the most prestigious clubs in the country immediately before travelling to Santos. So I wouldn't treat Macara as a straightforward underdog. This is a team that knows how to be patient and wait for their moment.
Match Results: Macara
🟨 Yellow Cards Prediction
The match has been assigned to Peruvian referee Kevin Ortega. He is a fairly strict official: his career average sits at roughly 5.0-5.7 yellow cards per game. The status of the match itself also lends itself to bookings. Macará will have to defend a great deal against a side with Neymar, Barboza and Bontempo, and tactical fouls during Santos's quick attacks will be almost inevitable.
The home side could also have disciplinary problems. If Macará regularly breaks forward on the counter through Posse and Miranda, Santos's defenders will have to stop those moves with fouls. Ortega is not a referee who prefers to explain infringements at length without issuing sanctions. An average of around five bookings per match gives reason to expect a fairly active use of cards. Prediction: total yellow cards over 3.5.
⚽ Goals Prediction
At first glance, Santos's playoff results lead you to expect another high-scoring game. In two matches against Universidad Central the team scored eight goals. But applying that statistic directly to the tie with Macará is not straightforward. The Ecuadorians conceded just three goals in six group-stage matches and kept a clean sheet four times. The team knows how to slow the game down and does not allow opponents to create a large number of clear-cut chances.
Santos also need to keep the second leg in mind. The return match will be played in Ambato at an altitude of around 2,500 metres above sea level. So the Brazilians would ideally build an advantage at home, but there is no need to take risks chasing a big scoreline. Macará will most likely be as cautious as possible. Even a 0:1 or 1:2 defeat would leave the team in good shape for the return leg. The main mistake for the visitors would be to open up and allow Santos to score three goals.
That said, I am not expecting a completely closed game either. Santos have too strong an attack, and Neymar's return increases the likelihood of a home goal. It is quite possible that at least one goal will fall to Macará as well - especially if the Brazilians push their defensive line higher. Prediction: total under 3.5 goals at 1.49*. This bet has come in in 15 of Macará's last 16 matches.
🚩 Corners Prediction
Santos should have the advantage in corners. The reason is obvious: Macará will almost certainly cede territory and try to set up through a compact defensive shape. Santos will use the flanks more often in positional attacks. Neymar can drift into the centre, freeing up space for the full-backs to get forward, while Bontempo regularly pushes up from deep. With a high volume of home attacks, this should lead to shots, blocks and corners.
The second half should be particularly interesting. If Santos are leading, Macará will gradually have to open up, and until that point the Ecuadorians will most likely spend the majority of their time defending. My pick: total corners under 10.5 at 1.8*. This option has come in in 10 of Macará's last 11 matches and in 6 of Santos's last 7 games in the Copa Sudamericana.
*Odds are indicative and may vary depending on the bookmaker.
⭐ Editor's Pick
Santos go into the first leg as favourites, and that is entirely justified. The Brazilians, with Neymar, Gabriel Barbosa and Bontempo, have already scored eight goals in two playoff matches. But Macará are an awkward opponent for exactly this kind of favourite. The Ecuadorians have not lost a single match in the tournament, conceded just three goals in the group stage, and have one of the best goalkeepers in the competition - Rodrigo Rodrigues.
I would not place too much weight on Santos's defeat to Atletico Paranaense. First, the team played without Neymar. Second, that match took place just a few days before the Sudamericana, and now Peixe return to a tournament where their attacking approach has already proven its effectiveness.
The most likely scenario is that Santos will control the game, Macará will sit deep and try to weather the early pressure. If the hosts score before half-time, the match should become considerably more interesting: the visitors will be forced to open up, and the Brazilians will have extra space to attack. I expect a Santos win, but not a rout. My predicted score is 2-0.
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Betting Tips: Santos - Macara
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Comparison of Teams Stats
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