Cerro vs Racing Prediction 26 July 2026
✨ Matchday 6 of the Uruguayan Torneo Intermedio brings a Group A derby that could shake up the standings. Cerro take on Racing de Montevideo - two sides separated by just a single point in the table. Neither is pushing for the top spot right now, but this is exactly the kind of match where you can change that. Fans are expecting the tight, combative football Uruguay is known for. Nobody wants to give an inch, so expect it to be feisty from the first whistle.
Head-to-Head
The last official match between these two sides ended 1-0. Here's the comparative stats from that game (Racing Montevideo were the home side):
- possession: 52% vs 48%;
- corners: 8 vs 4;
- yellow cards: 4 vs 4.
📊 Analytical overview of previous official matches between Cerro and Racing Montevideo:
- 40 matches played;
- home wins - 15, away wins - 16, draws - 9;
- goals (home/away) - 44 vs 44;
- average total goals per match - 2.2.
Head-to-head statistics Cerro - Racing
Cerro Team Overview
Their last official match was in the Primera, with Liverpool Montevideo at home and Cerro as the visitors. The final score was 1-2.
Match stats (Cerro vs Liverpool Montevideo):
- Possession: 37% vs 63%
- Corners: 2 vs 4
- Yellow cards: 3 vs 3
- Shots on target: 4 vs 7
Cerro sit fifth in their group with six points. The defensive numbers aren't pretty - four scored, eight conceded. They've had decent spells but also some bad ones, and that inconsistency is keeping them out of the top three. At home they tend to be more adventurous, though the recent poor results have made the coaching staff cautious. This match will test whether they can break down a disciplined, compact opponent.
Match Results: Cerro
Racing Montevideo Team Overview
The visiting side's last official match was in the Primera tournament (Racing Montevideo at home, Peñarol away). It ended 1-1.
Match stats (Racing Montevideo vs Peñarol):
- Possession: 51% vs 49%;
- Corners: 2 vs 4;
- Yellow cards: 4 vs 3;
- Shots on target: 4 vs 2.
Racing Montevideo sit fourth, just one point ahead of today's opponents. They're one of the most pragmatic sides in the league, a 3-2 goal difference after five rounds says it all. They don't score much, but their defensive record is among the best in the group. Racing know how to kill a game, drag it into a slow, grinding tempo. Away from home, don't expect anything different: tight at the back, rare counters, nothing more.
Match Results: Racing Montevideo
Prediction for the 1st half
First Half Statistics: Cerro (Home) vs Racing Montevideo (Away)
- Number of matches played in the tournament: 9 vs 9;
- Number of wins: 1 (11.11%) vs 2 (22.22%);
- Number of losses: 0 (0%) vs 1 (11.11%);
- Number of draws: 8 (88.89%) vs 6 (66.67%);
- Average total goals scored: 0.33 vs 0.78;
- Average total goals conceded: 0.11 vs 0.33.
Last 10 Matches (Overall):
- Number of wins: 1 vs 4;
- Number of losses: 4 vs 1;
- Number of draws: 5 vs 5;
- Average first half total: 1.2 (scored - 0.4, conceded - 0.8) vs 0.7 (scored - 0.5, conceded - 0.2).
- Cerro have drawn in the 1st half in 11 of last 12 home games (Primera Division).
Prediction on the outcome
H2H:
- number of encounters - 40;
- home team wins - 15, away team wins - 16, draws - 9.
Statistics: Cerro vs Racing Montevideo
- matches played in the tournament: 15 vs 15;
- wins: 4 vs 9;
- win percentage: 22% vs 47%;
- losses: 11 vs 2;
- draws: 3 vs 8.
Last 10 matches:
- wins: 2 vs 3;
- losses: 6 vs 1;
- draws: 2 vs 6.
- Racing Montevideo have not lost in 18 of last 19 games (Primera Division).
- Racing Montevideo have not lost in 15 of last 16 games.
- Racing Montevideo have not lost in 12 of last 13 away games (Primera Division).
- Racing Montevideo have not lost in 6 of last 7 away games.
Prediction on the over/under
H2H
- today's home team scores on average - 1.1, the guests - 1.1;
- average Over/Under goals in H2H matches - 2.2;
- both teams scored: overall - 20; at the home team's field - 10.
Statistics: Cerro vs Racing Montevideo
- average total in the tournament: 2.11 vs 2.16;
- average total goals scored: 0.56 vs 1.32;
- average total in the 1st half: 0.28 vs 0.68;
- average total in the 2nd half: 0.28 vs 0.63;
- Cerro: average total at home in the tournament - 0.56;
- Racing Montevideo: average total away in the tournament - 1.22;
- last 10 matches (average total): 0.7 (home - 0.5) vs 0.8 (away - 0.8).
- Under 2.5 goals scored in last 16 Cerro home games (Primera Division).
- Under 2.5 goals scored in last 9 Racing Montevideo games (Primera Division).
Prediction on corners
Cerro: Statistics
- season: average Over/Under in the tournament - 3.17; at home field - 3.11;
- last 10 matches: average Over/Under - 2.7; at home field - 3.25.
Racing Montevideo: Statistics
- season: average Over/Under in the tournament - 5.89, away - 5.78;
- last 10 matches: average Over/Under - 5.9; away - 5.8.
- Cerro have taken under 4.5 corners in 8 of last 9 games (Primera Division).
Prediction on BTTS
H2H:
- number of encounters - 40;
- both teams scored all-time - 20 times;
- on the home team’s field - 10 times.
Statistics: Cerro vs Racing Montevideo
- number of matches played in the tournament: 15 vs 15;
- number of matches in the season where both teams scored (BTTS): 6 vs 11;
- number of BTTS matches for Cerro at home - 2 (22%);
- number of BTTS matches for Racing Montevideo away - 5 (56%).
Last 10 matches:
- number of BTTS matches: 5 vs 5;
- BTTS matches for Cerro at home - 1 (25%);
- BTTS matches for Racing Montevideo away - 2 (40%).
Correct score prediction
Statistics of frequent results (current season):
- most common score in the tournament: 0:1 (22/153, 14.4%);
- Cerro at home most often finish matches: 0:1 (4/9, 44.4%);
- Racing Montevideo away most often play: 0:1 , 1:1 , 1:2 (2/9, 22.2%).
Based on statistics and probability distribution, the algorithm predicts the top 3 outcomes:
0:1 - 19.19% (odds 4.6)
0:0 - 14.19% (odds 6)
1:1 - 11.29% (odds 6.5)
⭐ Editor's Prediction
Looking at both teams' stats - Racing's in particular - there's no reason to expect a high-scoring game here. The visitors will sit deep, and Cerro's attack isn't sharp enough to break that down easily. The hosts aren't going to throw men forward either, not with eight goals conceded already. These kinds of matches tend to be decided by one mistake or a set piece, with most of the action grinding through midfield. Total goals under 2.5 makes sense. A 0-1 scoreline wouldn't surprise anyone.
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Betting Tips: Cerro - Racing Montevideo
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Comparison of Teams Stats
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