Kryliya vs Lokomotiv Prediction 19 March 2026
๐ Will Krylia Sovetov or Lokomotiv advance in the Russian Cup? On Thursday, they clash in the quarterfinals of the Regional Path, with their tournament fate hinging on this single match at the โSolidarity Arena.โ Lokomotiv haven't tasted victory here for nearly three years. Will the Moscow side break their winless streak in Samara? Let's evaluate the odds in our editorial's prediction.
Head-to-Head
๐ Lokomotiv haven't beaten Krylia Sovetov in Samara since May 2025. Since then, they've played three matches at the Solidarity Arena, two of which ended in draws, while last season in the RPL, Krylia dominated the Moscow side with a 5-1 victory. However, over the last 10 encounters, Lokomotiv hold a 4-1 lead in head-to-heads, with five games ending in a draw.
Head-to-head statistics Kryliya - Lokomotiv
Krylya Sovetov Team Overview
Krylia Sovetov are playing their second consecutive home match in the Path of Regions playoffs. In the round of 16, they confidently defeated Orenburg with a 2-0 victory. The hosts were certainly aided by the visitors' red card in the 50th minute, which allowed them to break the deadlock and secure the win. However, it's worth noting Samara's threefold advantage in shots (15 to 3) and their overwhelming territorial dominance (61% to 39%).
In contrast, Magomed Adiev's team lacked creativity in their most recent RPL match, suffering a 3-0 away defeat to Pari NN. By halftime, Nizhny Novgorod had already established a comfortable 2-0 lead and extended it to a rout in added time. Despite having the majority of possession (55% to 45%), the visitors were clueless with the ball, as highlighted by the stats: 16 shots with 2.96 xG compared to Pari's 10 shots with 0.75 xG.
Match Results: Krylya Sovetov
Lokomotiv Moscow Team Overview
Mikhail Galaktionov's Lokomotiv recently secured a hard-fought away victory in the previous round of the Regional Path playoffs, edging past Tula's Arsenal with a 2-1 scoreline. The head coach opted not to field his strongest lineup against the FNL side, resulting in closely matched statistics: Lokomotiv had 58% possession compared to Arsenal's 42%, and they managed six shots to Arsenal's five.
Much like Krylia, Lokomotiv suffered a heavy defeat in their latest RPL fixture. The "Railroaders" traveled to Kazan, where they were handed a 3-0 loss by Rubin. As the first half drew to a close, the visitors were reduced to ten men, but they were already trailing by a goal at that point. Despite their squad's quality allowing them to maintain a slight territorial advantage (51% possession to Rubin's 49%), the hosts were far more threatening in attack, registering 13 shots with an xG of 1.22 compared to Lokomotiv's seven shots with an xG of 0.45.
Match Results: Lokomotiv Moscow
Latest news
Krylya Sovetov
๐ Krylya Sovetov's head coach shared his thoughts on the defeat to Pari NN. "I don't think the score reflects the game because in the second half we had our own chances and approaches. Plus, towards the end, we pushed forward with more force and lost our balance. In the first half, we didn't play correctly, but in the second half, we somewhat corrected that and looked better," said Magomed Adiev.
โ Krylya's most significant loss occurred in the first half of the season when Vadim Rakov, on loan from Lokomotiv, got injured. The forward impressed in the early part of the championship, scoring five goals. With such statistics, he remains the team's top scorer.
Lokomotiv Moscow
๐ Lokomotiv's head coach expressed his frustration with the officiating following their defeat to Rubin. โThis is the second match in three rounds where we've played with a man down. Such mistakes are hard to rectify later. The opponent was more determined and displayed a more cohesive performance. Rubin's victory is probably deserved,โ said Mikhail Galaktionov.
โ Lokomotiv's injury list includes Sergey Pinyaev. His return is scheduled for early April.
๐จ Yellow Card Prediction
When these teams face each other, the matches often turn into intense battles on the pitch. If tensions rise, they collectively rack up no fewer than eight yellow cards. This is evident from their average of 5.5 yellow cards over the last six head-to-head meetings.
We anticipate that the quarterfinal playoff in the Russian Cup Path of Regions, which is a single-leg encounter, will match or even surpass the intensity of those previous clashes. In such a scenario, betting on over 4.5 total yellow cards seems like a reasonable choice.
โฝ๏ธ Goal Prediction
Neither team has shown defensive reliability this season. Krylia Sovetov rank as the second-worst defensive side in the RPL, conceding 40 goals in 21 matches. Lokomotiv have let in more goals than any other club in the top seven of the league. Additionally, their recent head-to-head encounters have been highly entertaining, largely due to both teams' defensive woes: 3 out of the last 4 meetings have seen over 2.5 goals. Based on this, our prediction is over 2.5 total goals.
๐ฉ Corner Prediction
Since the winter break, Mikhail Galaktionov seems to have moved away from the 4-3-3 formation, opting for a more pragmatic 4-2-3-1 setup. Even in the first half of the season, Moscow struggled to create chances from set-pieces at corner flags despite their wing-focused formation. With the tactical shift, their corner statistics have not improved. Lokomotiv currently rank fourth from the bottom in the RPL for average corners per game (3.76 over 21 matches). We believe it's safe to predict under 5.5 total corners for Lokomotiv.
Editorial Prediction
Recent trips to Samara have not been kind to Lokomotiv, as they have failed to defeat Krylia Sovetov at the "Solidarity Arena" in their last three encounters there. However, it's worth noting that the Railwaymen have only lost once in these meetings, managing to put up a fight and engage in goal exchanges each time.
In fact, goal exchanges have been a common theme in their head-to-head clashes, occurring in six of the last seven matches. Given the defensive issues both teams have faced, it wouldn't be surprising if this trend continues with goals at both ends of the pitch. Therefore, we suggest considering a bet on both teams to score (yes). We give a slight edge to the visitors due to their more consistent form throughout the season (2-1).
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Betting Tips: Krylya Sovetov - Lokomotiv Moscow
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