Gremio vs Cruzeiro Prediction, H2H Stats & Statistical Bets 18 October 2026
🔊 Grêmio go into the match in the relegation zone, just one point behind safety. Every result is critical to their chances of staying in the league. Cruzeiro are sixth, three points off an automatic promotion place. The two sides come into this in contrasting form: Grêmio fighting to survive, while Cruzeiro have been inconsistent but retain a solid attacking threat.
Head-to-head history: home advantage often proves decisive
Cruzeiro beat Grêmio 2-0 in their Serie A meeting on 18 April 2026, scoring both goals after the break. Grêmio had the majority of possession (59%), but the hosts were far more threatening in front of goal, with shots 18-9 and shots on target 6-1.
Across 44 official meetings, Cruzeiro hold a slight edge: 18 wins to Grêmio's 16, with 10 draws. At home, Grêmio have won 11 of 21 head-to-head matches, but only 5 of 23 away.
Head-to-head statistics Gremio - Cruzeiro
Grêmio: Struggling Both in Attack and Defence
Grêmio's last home Serie A match ended in a 1-1 draw with Internacional 11 October 2026. Trailing at half-time, they levelled the score, though despite having 67% possession they managed fewer shots than their opponents: 12 against 14.
Grêmio are going through a difficult spell: just two wins from their last ten matches, with four defeats and four draws. They have not won any of their last five games, losing three and drawing two. Their seasonal averages are modest - 1.07 goals scored and 1.33 conceded per match - and the recent run confirms problems at both ends of the pitch. At home, Grêmio tend to play in a more open fashion: the trend shows goals being exchanged regularly in their home matches (in 7 of their 8 home games), which points to defensive reliability issues even when motivation is high.
Match Results: Gremio
Cruzeiro: the objective is to pick up maximum points against the league’s underdogs
In their last Série A match away at Bragantino 13 October 2026, Cruzeiro lost 2-4. Despite having a clear advantage in possession (69%) and leading on shots on target 13-10, they went into the break trailing 1-3.
Cruzeiro are among the leading sides in the table with a clear objective heading into the final stretch of the season - they need to take maximum points in the closing rounds, particularly against the bottom clubs. Over their last ten matches, Cruzeiro have won four and lost five, averaging 1.53 goals scored and 1.47 conceded per match across the season; over the shorter recent run, that balance shifts towards even more open football, with 1.7 goals both scored and conceded. The trend underlines how entertaining their away matches have been: Over 2.5 total goals has landed in seven consecutive away games.
Match Results: Cruzeiro
Prediction
Cruzeiro have covered the handicap +1.5 in 24 of their last 25 matches, which points to a high level of consistency. On top of that, Grêmio have failed to win in 7 of their last 8 Série A matches, further reflecting the hosts' current difficulties in picking up points. Based on these trends, a bet on the Double Chance in favour of Cruzeiro at odds of 1.38* looks justified.
Total Goals Prediction
In 12 of the last 13 head-to-head meetings at Grêmio's ground, the total goals have not exceeded 3.5. Both teams' average scoring figures this season are also below 1.7 goals per game, which further points to a low-scoring trend. The bet on Total Goals - Under 3.5 at 1.38* therefore looks reliable.
Corners Prediction
In 7 of their last 8 home matches, Grêmio have seen the total corners exceed 9.5. Head-to-head trends between the two sides also point to high corner counts being a regular occurrence. The bet on Total Corners - Over 9.5 at odds of 1.85* is backed by the current statistics.
Both Teams to Score Prediction
Grêmio have both scored and conceded at home in 7 of their last 8 Série A matches, which points to a high likelihood of goals at both ends. Cruzeiro also average 1.33 goals per away match, while Grêmio concede 1.13 per home game, which further supports this option. However, head-to-head meetings between these sides occasionally produce low-scoring outcomes, creating some conflict, so this bet carries a medium level of confidence. The odds on Both Teams to Score - Yes are 1.63*.
Correct Score Prediction
According to the algorithm's calculations, the most likely outcomes are 1-1 (12.24%), 1-2 (8.25%) and 0-1 (7.68%). Of these, a 1-1 draw is the most probable, though a one-goal Cruzeiro win is also considered a realistic scenario. The probabilities are fairly close to one another, which points to a competitive match.
*Odds are indicative and may vary depending on the bookmaker.
⭐ Editor's Prediction
The statistics for both sides point to a high likelihood of a high-scoring match: Grêmio need points to avoid relegation, and their home games almost always feature goals at both ends even under the pressure of their league position, while Cruzeiro have been consistently putting on entertaining away performances with plenty of goals thanks to their open style in recent weeks. Given the trend of over 2.5 goals specifically in Cruzeiro's away matches, the editor's main prediction is Total Goals - Over 2.5.
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Betting Tips: Gremio - Cruzeiro
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