Botafogo vs Chapecoense Prediction, H2H Stats & Statistical Bets 17 October 2026
🔊 Botafogo and Chapecoense meet with neither side in particularly convincing form. Botafogo have had an inconsistent season, while Chapecoense are propping up the table and have little to show for their results either. The visitors have no real incentive in terms of the standings, so the hosts will be looking to use home advantage to pick up points. Worth noting that Botafogo's average goals scored and conceded are almost identical, while Chapecoense have been regularly struggling defensively.
What can we expect from this match based on their head-to-head statistics?
Chapecoense beat Botafogo at home in the Copa do Brasil on 14 May 2026, winning 2-0 with both goals scored before half-time. Botafogo had 66% of the ball and attempted 22 shots to Chapecoense's 11, but failed to score.
Across 13 official meetings, Botafogo have the upper hand: eight wins to Chapecoense's four, with one draw. Chapecoense failed to score in seven of those 13 matches.
Head-to-head statistics Botafogo - Chapecoense
What’s behind Botafogo’s inconsistent results
Botafogo drew 1-1 away at Coritiba in their last Série A match on 12 October 2026. The visitors had the better of the shot count - 18 to 13 - and created 72 dangerous attacks to Coritiba's 37, though they came out slightly behind on expected goals: 1.12 to 1.33.
Botafogo have been inconsistent of late, winning just two of their last ten matches while losing five. Over that same run, they have averaged fewer than one goal per game - 0.9 - while conceding 1.5 per match. In their last five fixtures, they have managed one draw, one win and three defeats, and over a long head-to-head run against Chapecoense they have never scored more than twice in a single match. Their league position demands maximum focus from the players for the remainder of the season.
Match Results: Botafogo FR
Chapecoense: Struggling to Consistently Pick Up Points
Chapecoense lost 1-4 at home to Athletico Paranaense in their last Série A match on 12 October 2026, conceding three times before half-time. The hosts had 21 shots to their opponents' 11 and were the more attacking side, but Paranaense converted four of their eight shots on target.
Chapecoense are in obvious crisis: just three wins in twenty-nine league matches, six defeats in their last ten, and a goals-against average of 2.2 per game over that run. Their attack has been marginally more productive - averaging 1.1 goals per game over the last ten matches - but that is clearly not enough to pick up points consistently. In the shorter term, they have lost four of their last five matches, winning just once.
Match Results: Chapecoense
Total Goals Prediction
In 10 of the last 11 head-to-head meetings between Botafogo and Chapecoense, Total Goals - Under 3.5 has landed, pointing to a tendency for relatively low scoring in their matches. This season's statistics also support a low-scoring picture: Botafogo average 1.67 goals per home game, Chapecoense average 0.73 goals per away game, and Chapecoense concede an average of 1.87 goals per away game. These figures back a low-scoring scenario. The pick is Total Goals - Under 3.5 at odds of 1.65*.
Corners Prediction
Chapecoense have taken at least 4 corners in each of their last 7 head-to-head meetings with Botafogo. It is a consistent trend with no contradicting data from the current season. The Chapecoense Team Total Corners - Over 3.5 is worth considering at odds of 1.88*.
A Risky Bet
In 6 of the last 7 head-to-head meetings between these two sides, the total has gone under 2.5 goals. This season, the average scoring rate of both teams is not particularly high, especially for Chapecoense away from home (0.73 goals per match). However, neither side's defence is watertight, which creates a degree of risk for this line. Total Goals - Under 2.5 is priced at 2.43*.
Reliable Bet
Botafogo have not scored more than three goals at home in 25 consecutive matches, which points to consistent scoring within this range. Their home average this season is 1.67 goals per game. The Botafogo Team Total - Under 3.5 Goals looks reliable at odds of 1.21*.
Correct Score Prediction
Based on statistics and probability distribution, the algorithm identifies three most likely scorelines: 2-1 (10.76%), 1-0 (10.47%) and 2-0 (9.22%). The 2-1 result has the highest probability, but the other values are very close, reflecting a moderately low-scoring tendency and a slight advantage for Botafogo.
*Odds are indicative and may vary depending on the bookmaker.
⭐ Editorial Prediction
The match looks set to be a cautious affair from both sides: neither team is capable of dominating consistently or improving sharply as the season progresses, which is reflected in their low average scoring rates. The trend shows a sustained run of under 3.5 totals in meetings between these clubs - a pattern backed up by the hosts' weak attack (fewer than one goal per game) and the visitors' regular defensive errors, with no sign of progress at either end for either side at this stage of the competition. The bet is Total Goals - Under 3.5.
Will this prediction come true?
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Betting Tips: Botafogo FR - Chapecoense
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