Bahia Ba vs Flamengo Prediction, H2H Stats & Statistical Bets 18 October 2026
🔊 Bahia go into this match against Flamengo on the back of a decent home run, though the two sides have very different things to play for. The hosts are fighting for a direct play-off place, while Flamengo sit top of the table and remain firmly in the title race. The contrast between the sides is reinforced by current form: Bahia have picked up wins, but the leaders have been considerably more consistent.
What does the head-to-head record say about Flamengo and Bahia?
19 April 2026 Flamengo beat Bahia 2-0 at home in the Série A. The hosts' dominance is reflected in the shot count of 20 to 13 and an expected goals figure of 2.03 to 0.64.
In 28 official meetings, Flamengo have won 19, Bahia five, with four draws. Even on Bahia's ground, Flamengo hold the edge: seven wins from 13 matches there, against four for the hosts.
Head-to-head statistics Bahia Ba - Flamengo
What’s behind Bahia’s impressive home form?
In their last Série A match on 11 October 2026, Bahia beat Mirassol 1-0 at home. They had 16 shots, only two of which were on target, with an expected goals figure of 2.81.
Bahia have been solid at home - they are unbeaten in their last eight matches on their own ground, which is reflected in the corresponding trend. In their last five matches they have won three and lost two, while over a ten-match stretch they have five wins, two defeats and three draws. Bahia's average is 1.47 goals scored per match, with their defence conceding 1.2. Their strong home record and recent unbeaten run on their own ground means they will be pushing for maximum points in the final rounds.
Match Results: Bahia
Flamengo: Rivals’ Pressure Fails to Slow Down Their Points Haul
Flamengo's previous Copa Libertadores match 16 October 2026 ended in a 0-0 draw away to Estudiantes La Plata. The visitors had 55% possession but failed to register a single shot on target from five attempts; their opponents had 21 shots, and Flamengo made six saves.
Flamengo go into this match as league leaders and remain fully focused given the constant pressure from their title rivals. The team are in excellent form, winning seven and drawing three of their last ten matches without a defeat, and their last five games have brought two wins and three draws in a row - an unbeaten run that has now extended for quite some time. On average, Flamengo score almost two goals per game (1.93) while their defence has been solid (0.83 conceded). Away from home, they have also been consistent, picking up points regularly regardless of the opponent or the circumstances.
Match Results: Flamengo
Total Goals Prediction
Bahia have scored fewer than 1.5 goals in all 8 of their last head-to-head matches against Flamengo. Their average for the season is 1.47 goals per game, while Flamengo concede an average of just 0.83 per match. This points to a clear difficulty for Bahia in hitting a high individual total in these fixtures. We're backing Bahia Team Total - Under 1.5 at 1.52*.
Corners Prediction
In the last 7 head-to-head meetings between Bahia and Flamengo, the total corners has consistently come in under 10.5. The trend is a firm one and directly relevant to the selected market, and there is no recent statistical data to contradict a low corners outcome. The optimal pick here is Total Corners - Under 10.5 at odds of 1.80*.
The Reliable Bet
Bahia have conceded in 13 of their last 14 head-to-head meetings with Flamengo. Bahia's seasonal average of goals conceded stands at 1.2 per match, while Flamengo have been highly productive in front of goal at 1.93 per game this season. These figures comfortably support a bet on Flamengo to Score at odds of 1.11*.
Correct Score Prediction
According to the algorithm's calculations, the most likely outcomes are: 0:1 (12.04%), 1:1 (11.45%) and 1:2 (9.14%). Of these options, a narrow Flamengo win has the highest probability, though the chances of a draw and a scoring away win also remain significant. All three outcomes fall within a low-scoring scenario for the match.
*Odds are indicative and may vary depending on the bookmaker.
⭐ Editorial Prediction
The trend points to Bahia's solidity at home - they have gone eight matches in a row without a defeat there, even against strong Série A opponents. This aligns with their local form in front of their own supporters and their average scoring output this season. Despite Flamengo's advantage across many metrics, it is the hosts' unbeaten home run that becomes the key factor in selecting the bet. The table situation also plays a role: the visitors have strong motivation to protect their lead at the top until the end of the season, but a congested schedule may require a more cautious approach even against a side sitting fifth. The bet - Bahia not to lose.
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Betting Tips: Bahia - Flamengo
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