Canada vs Guatemala Prediction, H2H Stats & Statistical Bets 17 November 2026
🔊 Canada and Guatemala meet in the second leg of their CONCACAF Nations League quarter-final, with the tie still in the balance after the first leg despite the visitors’ advantage. Canada took a significant step towards the finals but allowed their opponents to cut a three-goal deficit to one. They now need to build on that result in Toronto, while Guatemala travel with a chance to turn the tie around. Can the hosts finish the job, or will the visitors repeat last year’s success in their head-to-head meeting and knock Canada out?
Confident attacking play
📊 The last meeting ended in a 3-2 win for Canada. The Reds had 17 shots to their opponents' 9 and held 58% possession.
Head-to-head statistics Canada - Guatemala
Trouble holding on to a lead
In the 2026/27 season, Canada are back in League A and have again qualified directly for the quarter-finals as one of the region’s four highest-ranked national teams in the CONCACAF rankings. Their opponents at this stage are Guatemala, the winners of Group B. However, Canada will be without captain Alphonso Davies, who was injured in the first leg of the quarter-final.
Canada secured an important away win (3-2) in the first leg. Despite captain Alphonso Davies suffering an injury as early as the seventh minute, Marsch’s team produced a strong first half and led 3-0 at the break thanks to their excellent attacking play. After half-time, Guatemala pulled two goals back, turning the match into a tense affair. The game showed Canada’s considerable attacking potential but also exposed their problems holding on to a lead. The “Reds” have a one-goal advantage going into the second leg, but it is too early to relax: their opponents have already shown they can punish the slightest drop in pressure.
Match Results: Canada
The gap is minimal - there’s still a chance
In the 2026/27 season, Guatemala are competing in League A again, but this time they won Group B and reached the tournament’s quarter-finals for the first time in their history. Guatemala took seven points from four matches, recording two wins, one draw and one defeat. They scored nine goals and conceded three, with William Fajardo emerging as one of the key figures of the group stage after scoring a hat-trick in the 6-0 win over El Salvador.
Guatemala lost the first leg of their quarter-final against Canada 3-2 at home. They were three goals down at half-time. After the break, however, Óscar Santis reduced the deficit, and a stoppage-time own goal by Luc de Fougerolles brought the hosts to within one goal. Despite a poor first half, Guatemala showed character and kept the tie alive ahead of the return leg. They now need to overturn a one-goal deficit in Toronto, which will require them to be bolder in attack without leaving space for their opponents.
Match Results: Guatemala
Latest news
Canada
❌ Canada's main new absentee is Davies, who was injured early in the previous match and substituted. He will miss the return leg and go back to Munich for an examination. Osorio was injured in the latest MLS round and will not be available for the national team. Shaffelburg is injured.
Guatemala
❌ Guatemala will be without Aparicio, who is recovering from a hairline fracture of the fibula and will miss the series against Canada. Franco, Estrada and Robles will also be unavailable for the national team.
Total Goals Prediction
Canada have regularly scored well at home: they have netted at least two goals in 6 of their last 7 CONCACAF Nations League matches. On home soil, Canada push forward, apply pressure and regularly find scoring opportunities, as they showed in the first half of their previous match against Guatemala. Given this trend, we expect at least two goals from the hosts. Editor's pick: Canada Team Total Goals - Over 1.5 at odds of 1.30*.
Corners Prediction
In their most recent head-to-head meeting, the teams won just seven corners between them. There is a great deal at stake now, so both sides need to play carefully and avoid unnecessary risks. They are unlikely to commit large numbers forward constantly, which could limit the number of dangerous attacks and corners. All this points to a low-corner game. Bet: Total Corners - Under 9.5.
Yellow Cards Prediction
The teams received five yellow cards in their last head-to-head meeting. Another hard-fought contest is expected: the result matters to both national teams, so there should be plenty of challenges and fouls. There are grounds to expect at least four bookings. Bet: Total Yellow Cards - Over 3.5.
⭐ Editor’s Pick
Canada beat Guatemala 3-2 in the first meeting, but allowed their opponents to create several dangerous chances and conceded twice. We now expect a more disciplined defensive performance from Canada: they should control the tempo better, stay tighter when they lose the ball and leave no space for counter-attacks. At the same time, the hosts’ attacking potential gives them a chance to score again against Guatemala’s fragile defence. Guatemala’s away results provide another argument: over 2.5 goals has landed in 6 of their last 7 away matches in the CONCACAF Nations League. That run supports a high-scoring outcome, while Canada’s advantage in quality makes them the preferred side. Correct score prediction: 3-1. Editor’s pick: Total Goals - Over 2.5.
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Betting Tips: Canada - Guatemala
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