Tottenham vs Atletico Madrid Prediction
📢 Can Tottenham turn the tide against Atletico in the second leg of the Champions League Round of 16 at the Tottenham Hotspur Stadium? In the first leg of this stage, many teams suffered heavy defeats, losing by three goals, and the Spurs were no exception, falling 2-5. While the London club's chances of advancing to the next round are slim, hope remains. Tottenham will believe in a miracle until the very last minute.
Head-to-Head
📊 The head-to-head history between Tottenham and Atletico is quite modest: the match that took place last week marked the first official encounter between these teams in the 21st century.
H2H Stats Matches and Previous Teams Results
Tottenham Hotspur Team Overview
⚪ Tottenham are enduring a nightmare season. After 30 matches, they find themselves in 16th place with just 30 points. Their cushion from the relegation zone is a mere single point. This slim advantage could have vanished if not for their miraculous draw against Liverpool away (1-1) last weekend. The Spurs looked significantly weaker than their opponents, but salvaged a point thanks to Richarlison's last-gasp equalizer in the 90th minute. Notably, this draw halted a dismal run of six consecutive defeats for Tottenham.
🔵 In their first leg against Atletico (2-5), things went awry for Tottenham right from the start. Igor Tudor made a bold decision by starting Antonin Kinsky, who hadn't played since October. The young Czech goalkeeper struggled under pressure, making two costly mistakes that led to goals, resulting in his substitution by the 17th minute. This marked the first instance in Champions League history where a goalkeeper was replaced so early not due to injury. By the 22nd minute, Spurs were already trailing 0-4, making it mentally challenging to mount a comeback. Thus, the final score of 2-5 doesn't seem as disastrous as it could have been.
Match Results: Tottenham Hotspur
Atletico Madrid Team Overview
🔴 Atlético approach their upcoming clash in high spirits, having secured six victories in their last seven matches, maintaining their position in third place in La Liga. Last weekend, the Madrid side, fielding a semi-rotated squad, managed a narrow 1-0 home win over Getafe. In the first half, Los Colchoneros completely dominated, recording an 8-0 advantage in shots and creating two clear goal-scoring chances. After the break, the team's intensity dropped, and the second-half statistics were relatively even, despite Getafe being reduced to ten men from the 55th minute. Nonetheless, Atlético secured all three points and allowed their key players some rest ahead of the second leg against Tottenham.
⚪ As for the first leg against the London club, it turned out even better for Atlético than anticipated. While they were initially considered favorites, a three-goal margin victory provides a very comfortable cushion. Despite an xG of just 2.59, the team could have scored more and won by an even larger margin. In the first half, Los Colchoneros had the chance to finish off their opponents but eased up. In the second half, with the score at 5-1, Jan Oblak attempted to show solidarity with his counterpart Kinski by making a mistake that led to a goal. The key now for the Madrid side is to ensure this moment doesn't affect their path to the quarter-finals.
Match Results: Atletico Madrid
Latest news
Tottenham Hotspur
📣 After Tottenham's first match against Atletico (2-5), head coach Igor Tudor addressed the substitution of Kinski in the 17th minute: "In my 15 years of coaching, such occurrences have been extremely rare; I've never done it before. But it was necessary to protect both the player and the team. It's an incredible situation, there's nothing to comment on-you can see it for yourselves. Before the match, starting Toni seemed like the right decision given the pressure on Vicario and the congested schedule-Toni is a very good goalkeeper. For me, it was the right decision at the time."
🚫 Spurs are dealing with more than their fair share of absences. Connor Gallagher is doubtful due to illness, while Cristian Romero and Joao Palhinha are both recovering from concussions. Destiny Udogie is out with a muscle injury, and his return date is uncertain. Yves Bissouma is expected back by early April (muscle injury). Ben Davies (ankle injury), Rodrigo Bentancur (hamstring injury), and Mohammed Kudus (muscle injury) are set to return by mid-month. Lucas Bergvall is anticipated to be back from a leg injury by the end of April. James Maddison (ACL injury) and Dejan Kulusevski (knee injury) aim to return in early May. Wilson Odobert is sidelined for the rest of the season due to an ACL tear.
Atletico Madrid
📣 After Atletico's first match against Tottenham (5-2), head coach Diego Simeone remarked, "I liked the way we played. We started well, largely due to the mistakes we forced our opponents into. This gave us confidence, encouraged us to keep pressing in their half, and allowed us to build a significant lead." On whether the spot in the quarterfinals is secured: "No two matches are ever the same. I remember losing 3-0 at the Bernabeu in the 2017 semifinal, then leading 2-0 at the Calderon, yet Benzema scored, and we didn't advance. The Champions League is made for big players, and every team has them."
🚫 Atletico have few injuries to worry about. Jan Oblak is expected to return from a muscle injury by the end of March, while Pablo Barrios should be back from a thigh injury by early April. Rodrigo Mendoza is recovering from an ankle dislocation and will likely be back on the field only by the end of April.
🟨 Prediction on Yellow Cards
The main referee for the match is Daniel Siebert. The German official is known for not showing too many yellow cards lately; in his last four matches across all competitions, Siebert has not issued more than three yellow cards per game. Given this trend, betting on under 3.5 yellow cards seems like an intriguing option, especially since this bet has won in 13 of Tottenham's last 15 home games.
⚽ Prediction on Goals
The first encounter between Tottenham and Atletico was a goal-fest, with both teams combining for seven goals, surpassing the four-goal mark by the 22nd minute. However, there were reasons for this scenario-three of the goals were due to goalkeeper errors (two by Kinski, one by Oblak), and the xG indicated that the teams didn't actually create enough quality chances for such a high scoreline. In the return leg, Atletico have no need to rush things; they are likely to play more cautiously and focus on defense, as is often the case after a big win. In this context, betting on under 3.5 goals seems quite appealing.
🚩 Prediction on Corners
For those interested in set-piece bets, considering over 9.5 corners could be worthwhile: this wager has been successful in 8 of Atletico's last 9 away matches. With Tottenham needing to chase the game, the hosts might even reach this corner count on their own.
🚀 Player Stats Bet
In the first game between these teams, Julian Alvarez was the standout performer, scoring twice and providing an assist. Given that he only appeared late in the match against Getafe, it's likely he'll start in the upcoming fixture. In this scenario, betting on Julian Alvarez to score at odds of 2.90* looks like a very interesting option.
😱 Risky Bet
Lately, Atletico have been starting their matches very aggressively. For instance, they scored in the 5th minute against Real Sociedad (3-2), in the 6th minute in their first match against Tottenham (5-2), and in the 8th minute against Getafe (1-0). Considering this trend, risk-takers might consider betting on the first goal being scored between the 1st and 10th minute. This event is offered at odds of 4.10*.
👀 If the Match Doesn't Go as Planned
As noted earlier, there are no clear reasons to expect the upcoming match to be high-scoring. However, football often unfolds unpredictably: goalkeepers could again commit blunders leading to goals, or Tottenham might score early, gain confidence, and believe in a comeback. In such a scenario, the game could become as open and high-scoring as last week, making a bet on over 3.5 goals a viable option.
*Odds are approximate and may vary across different bookmakers
Editorial Prediction
According to bookmakers, there's no clear favorite in the upcoming standalone match, even though it's set to take place in London and the hosts need to overcome a 2-5 deficit. However, Tottenham are currently in such poor form (with six losses and two draws since early February) that it's hard to believe even in a narrow victory for them. Moreover, it might be wiser for the London club not to expend too much energy on a comeback attempt and instead focus on their Premier League survival battle. Especially considering that Spurs face a crucial match against Nottingham Forest this weekend, who are just one point behind them. Therefore, the most logical bet seems to be on Atletico not losing. We expect the scoreboard to read 1-2 at the final whistle.
Betting Tips: Tottenham Hotspur - Atletico Madrid
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