Manchester United vs Man City Prediction 17 January 2026
🔊 The Manchester derby at Old Trafford! How's that for a start to the 22nd round of the Premier League? Michael Carrick, in his first match back as head coach of the Red Devils, will aim to take points off their neighbors. Interestingly, bookmakers aren't ruling out such a scenario. Pep Guardiola's squad are considered favorites, but not overwhelmingly so. Let's delve into the details of this crucial showdown!
Head-to-Head
📊 In the last five matches, Manchester United hold the edge. Yes, you read that right. The Red Devils have claimed two victories in regular time, while the Citizens have managed just one. Interestingly, if we focus on the same five-match stretch but specifically at Old Trafford, the scenario shifts unfavorably for the hosts: three defeats with only a single goal scored.
Head-to-head statistics Manchester United - Man City
Manchester United Team Overview
The dismissal of Ruben Amorim did not yield the expected results for the Red Devils. Their winless streak continues, now stretching to four matches. Under Darren Fletcher, the team failed to defeat Burnley (2-2) in the Premier League and was knocked out of the FA Cup by Brighton (1-2). They outperformed both opponents in xG, amassing nearly five expected goals in total, but this brought no practical benefit.
It has already been calculated that Manchester United will play just 40 matches this season, the fewest since the 1914/15 season. The Mancunians are not participating in European competitions and have been eliminated from both English cups at the first stage. With such a free schedule, Michael Carrick must aim for a top-five finish in the Premier League.
Match Results: Manchester United
Manchester City Team Overview
Pep Guardiola's team had a rough start to the new year, failing to secure a win in their first three matches. The break for cup games couldn't have come at a better time. The Citizens regained their confidence not only by thrashing Exeter City (10-1) from the third tier but also by defeating Newcastle United (2-0) in the first leg of the League Cup semi-final. Winning against the Magpies at St. James' Park is always a significant achievement.
The only downside is Erling Haaland's recent dip in form. The Norwegian has scored just once in his last six matches-a surprising statistic! On a brighter note, newcomer Antoine Semenyo has seamlessly integrated into the squad. The Ghanaian became the first City player since Emmanuel Adebayor to score in his first two appearances for the club.
Match Results: Manchester City
Latest news
Manchester United
🎙 Acting Manchester United manager Michael Carrick exudes optimism and confidence ahead of the derby: "Everyone at Manchester United lives for these crucial matches-it's been that way since the club's inception. That's why we're here. We'll fight until the end," the Englishman stated.
❌ In United's injury list, only Matthijs de Ligt remains sidelined, having been out since early December due to a back injury. Also unavailable are Shea Lacey, who received a red card in the cup game against Brighton, and Noussair Mazraoui, who is set to play in the Africa Cup of Nations final.
Manchester City
🎙 “Everything is fine. This was our first step towards the final. Semenyo's performance? We know Bournemouth have done an incredible job with him, and every time the ball reaches Antoine, he always finds himself in the right place. The disallowed second goal? Four officials and VAR couldn't make a decision; they had to refer to the head referee. This situation will make us stronger. It's the semifinal. We're playing to reach the final,” said Pep Guardiola, commenting on the victory over Newcastle.
❌ Unfortunately for the Citizens, the team has a significant number of players sidelined: Mateo Kovacic, Josko Gvardiol, Ruben Dias, John Stones, Oscar Bobb, Savinho, and Nico Gonzalez are all unavailable. Additionally, Guardiola cannot count on Omar Marmoush, who is representing Egypt in the Africa Cup of Nations.
🟨 Referee and Yellow Cards
The Manchester derby will be officiated by Anthony Taylor. This season, the English referee averages a modest 3.8 cautions per game in the Premier League. Despite the derby's high stakes, recent head-to-head encounters have rarely been rough: only one of the last six meetings saw more than three yellow cards. Therefore, a cautious bet on under 4.5 yellow cards is worth considering.
⚽️ Goal Prediction
Manchester United always approach big matches with exceptional motivation. While their current form isn't stellar, they are creating numerous chances in front of goal. Meanwhile, City are dealing with defensive shortages. We anticipate both teams finding the net and are backing both teams to score (yes). This has been the outcome in 9 of United's last 10 matches.
🚩 Corner Prediction
Guardiola has made City more adaptable; they don't always insist on possession and might employ this tactic at Old Trafford. This will give the hosts opportunities for positional attacks and set pieces. Manchester United have delivered more than 3.5 corners in 9 of their last 10 matches, a target the Red Devils are capable of reaching in the derby.
Editorial Prediction
Many may disagree, but in our view, this is a game with three possible outcomes. City are undoubtedly the favorites, yet one cannot rule out surprises from United. The "Red Devils" always have the potential to astonish at the "Theatre of Dreams," especially following changes in their managerial setup. Additionally, the hosts have fewer injury concerns, which is a significant factor. Therefore, we anticipate a 2-2 draw and are backing over 2.5 goals. It's worth noting that six of the last seven Premier League head-to-head encounters between these sides have seen over goals.
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Betting Tips: Manchester United - Manchester City
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Comparison of Teams Stats
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