Bournemouth vs Milan Prediction, H2H Stats & Statistical Bets 22 October 2026
📢 One of the standout matches of the third round of the Europa League takes place at the Vitality Stadium. Bournemouth may not have much European experience, but they represent the strongest league in the world and are accustomed to a high tempo and fierce competition. Milan, one of the most decorated clubs in Italian football, need little introduction. Both sides are aiming to finish the league phase in the top eight and qualify directly for the Round of 16, bypassing the knockout phase play-offs. That makes this a match neither team will want to lose.
🔁 This prediction is updated on match day. Keep an eye on the Latest News section.
Head-to-Head
📊 Bournemouth and Milan have never previously met.
Bournemouth are finding their rhythm after a sluggish start
Bournemouth were one of the standout stories of last season's Premier League. The Cherries finished sixth in the table, falling just three points short of a top-five place and a Champions League spot. It looked as though the club were ready to establish themselves among England's elite, but the new season has gone nothing like to plan: after seven rounds they sit 15th with a modest six points. What makes their results particularly surprising is the contrast with their defensive performances. Bournemouth are not conceding many dangerous chances, yet they are among the worst teams in the division for goals conceded, having let in 13.
They did manage to improve things last weekend, comfortably seeing off Sunderland 2-0. The final score did not even reflect the scale of their dominance. The Cherries had 29 shots to Sunderland's three, and their expected goals figure was an impressive 3.23 xG against a meagre 0.08. Sunderland had virtually no answer to the hosts, who brought a deserved end to their run of poor league results.
In the Europa League, Bournemouth have been close to flawless so far. The English club have taken the maximum six points from two matches and are among the leaders in the table. In the opening round they travelled to Spain and beat a solid Real Sociedad side 2-1. In their second match, back at home, they gave Austrian side Sturm no chance whatsoever, winning 3-0. The English side were fully in control throughout and earned a thoroughly deserved victory.
Match Results: Bournemouth
Milan are showing consistency in Serie A and are starting to turn things around in European competition
Milan's results paint an almost opposite picture to Bournemouth's. In Serie A things are going reasonably well for the Rossoneri, whereas in the Europa League it has not all gone to plan so far. After seven Serie A rounds, the Italian club have 15 points and sit fourth in the table, keeping themselves well placed in the race for the top positions. In the Europa League, however, they have managed only three points and find themselves in mid-table.
Last weekend Milan claimed an important win over a strong Atalanta side, 3-2. For a while it looked as though the hosts would win comfortably. By the midpoint of the second half the Rossoneri were 3-0 up and fully in control, but the team then switched off unexpectedly, allowing their opponents to score twice and make it a contest again. Milan held on for the win, yet those defensive lapses ahead of an away trip to England are certainly a cause for concern.
In the Europa League the Italian club have not been able to show the same consistency they have in Serie A. A poor start meant the Rossoneri were already under pressure in the second round, and they responded well to that first setback. Last week Milan travelled to Salzburg and effectively dismantled the Austrian side 4-0. The Italians looked noticeably sharper than their opponents despite the shot count being roughly even at 15-14, so the result was broadly fair.
Match Results: Milan
Latest news
Bournemouth
❌ Bournemouth have three confirmed absentees ahead of the match. Julián Araujo, Alex Scott and Junior Kroupi remain sidelined with injuries, while Veljko Milosavljević is doubtful.
Milan
❌ Milan's Matteo Gabbia and Alexis Saelemaekers remain sidelined, while Filippo Terracciano will miss the match through suspension.
Predicted Lineups
📋 Predicted Bournemouth starting XI: Petrović - Smith, Hill, Silva, Truffert - Adams, Christie - Rayan, Cook, Tavernier - Evanilson.
📋 Predicted Milan starting XI: Maignan - Pavlović, De Winter, Gila - Moreira, Modrić, Musah, Chukwueze - Pulisic, Rabiot - Ramos.
⚽️ Goals Prediction
Bournemouth like to get forward from the first minute rather than wait for the game to open up, particularly at home. The statistics back this up: in 7 of their last 8 home matches, the Cherries scored at least once before half-time. Given the strength of their attack and Milan's recent defensive problems, we're backing Bournemouth to Score in the 1st Half at 1.83*.
🚩 Corners Prediction
Matches involving Milan rarely feature a high number of corners, and this tendency is especially pronounced away from home. In their last nine away matches, the Rossoneri have consistently seen no more than nine corners. Furthermore, Total Corners - Under 9.5 has landed in 8 of Milan's last 9 official matches. We're expecting that trend to continue. The odds are 1.84*.
🟨 Yellow Cards Prediction
Both sides play at pace and have plenty of technically gifted individuals who can sometimes only be stopped by a foul. At high speed, infringements are inevitable: defenders will be forced to break up quick transitions, often at the cost of a booking. We're backing Total Yellow Cards - Over 3.5.
🚀 Player Stats Bet
Evanilson has made a strong start to the season, contributing 2 goals and 4 assists in 7 Premier League matches. He has been particularly impressive recently, scoring against Sturm in the Europa League and then contributing a goal and an assist in both of his side's goals against Sunderland last weekend. The Brazilian regularly gets into goalscoring positions and has had good chances in virtually every match. Our bet is Evanilson to Score at 2.85*.
😱 Risky Bet
Bournemouth at Vitality Stadium cause serious problems even for top clubs. The Cherries play with real boldness, press their opponents' defences relentlessly and consistently create a large number of dangerous chances. Those who like a risk can back Bournemouth to Win - Handicap (-1.5) at 3.90*.
🎯 Safe Bet
Despite competing in the strongest league in the world, Bournemouth very rarely fail to score. In 17 of their last 18 matches, the club have found the net, showing a remarkable consistency in attack. The bet to consider is Bournemouth to Score at 1.20*.
👀 If the Match Goes Another Way
Despite the conditions pointing towards a high-scoring game, the opposite scenario cannot be ruled out. Milan could opt for a cautious approach, setting up a compact defence and focusing on neutralising Bournemouth's attacks. The English side, who have limited experience against Italian clubs, may find it difficult to break down such an organised structure. The alternative bet is Total Goals - Under 2.5 at 2.18*.
*Odds are indicative and may vary across different bookmakers.
⭐ Editor's Prediction
According to the bookmakers, Bournemouth go into this match as favourites, and there are good reasons for that. Despite a difficult start to the Premier League season, the Cherries have been playing decent football and look particularly comfortable at home at the Vitality Stadium. That said, Milan have no intention of giving up points without a fight: the Italians have already dropped points once in the Europa League, and another defeat would seriously complicate their push for a top-8 finish. Both sides score consistently but neither keeps clean sheets reliably, which is why our main selection is Both Teams to Score - Yes. Predicted score: 3-2.
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Betting Tips: Bournemouth - Milan
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