Sturm vs Marseille Prediction, H2H Stats & Statistical Bets 22 October 2026
🔊 Sturm and Marseille are living double lives. On Sunday they scored 11 goals between them in their domestic leagues: six for Sturm in the derby against GAK, five for Marseille away at Angers. Yet in the Europa League, across two matchdays, they have managed one goal and one point combined. Which version of each side will show up in Graz?
🔁 We will update this prediction as new information about the teams becomes available. Check back just before kick-off so you don't miss any important changes.
Head-to-Head
📊 Sturm and Marseille have met twice - in the Champions League group stage in 1999/2000. In France, the home side came out on top. In Graz, it was more dramatic: Christophe Dugarry equalised twice, the second time with his side down to ten men. But late on, Tomica Kocijan completed a brace and Sturm beat Marseille 3-2.
Sturm: Derby Hat-Trick, Blank in Europe
Sturm have a new attacking leader in the Bundesliga - 22-year-old Ivorian Oumar Diakité, on loan from Reims. Manager Fabio Ingolitsch described the forward as the missing piece of the puzzle. In Sunday's derby against GAK, Diakité scored the first hat-trick of his professional career, and he now has six goals in four league matches. That is enough for fourth place so far: Sturm are on 17 points, with leaders Rapid 24.
In Europe, that same attack has gone quiet. Rennes took a goalless draw from Graz, and in Bournemouth the Austrians conceded three without reply. There were chances: Jürgen Heil hit the post, and the English side's goalkeeper saved Jakob Höjdl's follow-up. On Thursday, Ingolitsch's side make their third attempt to score in the competition.
Match Results: Sturm Graz
Marseille: Five goals in Angers and Olympiacos set-piece routine
Before the international break, Marseille lost five matches in a row across all competitions. Bruno Génésio's side ended that run against Troyes. In the following Ligue 1 fixture, Marseille came from behind for the first time this season, conceding in Angers on the 14th minute and still winning by three goals. The manager described it as "very valuable for the head and for morale". Back-to-back wins lifted Marseille up to ninth place.
In the Europa League, there has been no such response yet. At home, Marseille lost to Olympiacos (0:1), despite earning nine corners to their opponents' one. The Greeks scored the only goal from a set piece: Santiago Hezze headed in a delivery from Chiquinho. Even after the Angers result, Génésio is cautious: "If we want to extend the run, we'll have to be smart about it."
Match Results: Olympique Marseille
Latest news
Sturm Graz
❓ In the derby against GAK, first-choice goalkeeper Daniil Khudyakov suffered a broken leg. He was replaced by Ammar Helac. Already absent before that were attacking players Sedi Jatta, Nelson Wiper, Leon Grgic, Gizo Mamageishvili, Otar Kiteishvili and Filip Ruzga, as well as defender Emran Soglo.
Olympique Marseille
❓ Midfielder Pierre-Emile Hojbjerg picked up a thigh injury while on international duty with Denmark, and his availability for the match in Graz is in doubt. Defender Derek Cornelius is out.
Predicted Lineups
📋 Predicted starting XI for Sturm: Helac - Koller, Quarshie, Malic - Balbo, Gorenc Stankovic, Weinhandl, Heil - Matoshi, Seidl - Diakite.
📋 Predicted starting XI for Marseille: De Lange - Weah, Egan-Riley, Kondogbia, Emerson - Nnadi, Kamissoko - Harit, Abdelli, Igor Paixao - Gouiri.
⚽️ Goals Prediction
Sturm have not scored more than one goal in any of their last eight Europa League matches. Their attack also struggles against stronger sides in the Bundesliga: in away matches against the two league leaders, Rapid and Salzburg, they have scored just once. We do not expect the hosts to score twice. The bet is Sturm Team Total - Under 1.5.
Corners Prediction
Sturm have had at least nine corners in 11 consecutive matches, and at home they have taken more than three themselves in 12 of their last 13 games. Marseille have earned 47 corners across their last 10 official matches, with their opponents earning 46. We expect the teams to reach at least nine in Graz as well. The bet is Total Corners - Over 8.5.
Yellow Cards Prediction
In their last 10 official matches, Sturm's players have been shown 41 yellow cards, while Marseille's have received 36. More than two bookings combined were recorded in seven of Sturm's matches and eight of Marseille's. In England, both Bournemouth and Sturm picked up three cards each. We're expecting at least three yellows on Thursday as well. The bet is Total Yellow Cards - Over 2.5.
📌 Editorial Prediction
At home, Sturm have lost just one of their last 16 matches. Even then the margin was minimal: they have not lost by more than one goal in Graz in 18 consecutive matches. Sturm's manager Fabio Ingolitsch acknowledges that Marseille are the stronger side, but adds: "At this stadium, you have to beat us first." The French side have taken six points from their last two away matches in Ligue 1, but before that they lost away to Monaco, Rennes and Beşiktaş. We expect Sturm to avoid defeat on Thursday as well. The bet is Sturm not to lose. Predicted score: 1-1.
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Betting Tips: Sturm Graz - Olympique Marseille
in 7 of last 8 games (Europa League).
in 15 of last 16 home games.in 16 of last 18 Sturm Graz home games.in last 8 Sturm Graz games (Europa League).in last 5 Sturm Graz games.in 13 of last 14 games.Comparison of Teams Stats
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