Montreal vs Toronto FC Prediction 16 July 2026
🔊 Montreal Impact and Toronto head into their head-to-head clash sitting outside the playoff spots, each trailing their nearest target by four points. Both sides have struggled for consistency, but there’s a clear contrast: the hosts enjoyed more wins before the World Cup break, while the visitors’ winless streak has dragged on since May. With the season at its midpoint, both teams still have plenty to play for and remain motivated to close the gap. Given the recent high-scoring encounters for both clubs, fans can expect an open game with plenty of chances in front of goal.
Head-to-Head
The most recent official meeting between these sides took place on 30 August 2025 and ended in a 1-1 draw. Here’s a look at some key stats from that match (Toronto were the home team):
- Possession: 42% vs 58%;
- Corners: 8 vs 6;
- Fouls committed: 16 vs 14;
- Yellow cards: 2 vs 4;
- Shots on target: 5 vs 2.
📊 Analytical review of previous official meetings between Montreal Impact and Toronto:
- They have faced each other 50 times;
- The home side have claimed 20 wins, while the visitors have 22 victories; there have been 8 draws;
- Total goals scored (home/away): 70 vs 87;
- The average number of goals per match stands at 3.14.
Head-to-head statistics Montreal - Toronto FC
Montreal Impact Team Overview
The team’s most recent official fixture took place on in the Championship, with Montreal Impact hosting Vancouver. The match ended 2-1.
Here’s a breakdown of the key stats (Montreal Impact vs Vancouver):
- Possession: 64% vs 36%;
- Corners: 4 vs 5;
- Fouls: 10 vs 7;
- Yellow cards: 2 vs 2;
- Shots on target: 7 vs 2.
Over their last ten matches, Montreal Impact have shown clear progress, racking up six wins, two draws, and just two defeats-a strong run of form. The team have notably improved going forward, averaging 2.3 goals per game over this stretch, underscoring a positive attacking trend. However, their defense remains a concern: Montreal concede an average of 1.4 goals per match during this period, with their season-long average even higher at 2.21. Playoff motivation is still high-the side sit outside the postseason spots, trailing by four points and determined to close the gap on their rivals as the season reaches its midpoint.
Match Results: Montreal Impact
Toronto Team Overview
The visitors last played an official match on in MLS action, facing Chicago Fire away from home. Toronto came up short, falling 2-1 in that contest.
Here’s a look at the key stats from the game (Toronto vs Chicago Fire):
- Possession: 47% vs 53%
- Corners: 4 vs 3
- Fouls committed: 12 vs 12
- Yellow cards: 4 vs 4
- Shots on target: 4 vs 6
Toronto are looking to bounce back after a difficult spell, having lost four of their last five matches and drawn just once. Over their previous ten outings, Toronto have managed only one win alongside five defeats, highlighting significant struggles throughout this stretch. Despite these issues, the team have averaged 1.7 goals scored and 2.4 conceded per game in that span, often finding themselves in high-scoring, end-to-end contests. Their away form remains a major concern: Toronto rarely score more than 1.5 goals on the road, underlining their limited attacking threat away from home. Playoff ambitions are still alive, but Toronto sit outside the postseason spots and need results to keep their hopes intact.
Match Results: Toronto
Prediction for the 1st half
First Half Statistics: Montreal Impact (Home) vs Toronto (Away)
- Number of matches played in the tournament: 6 vs 5;
- Number of wins: 4 (66.67%) vs 0 (0%);
- Number of losses: 1 (16.67%) vs 3 (60%);
- Number of draws: 1 (16.67%) vs 2 (40%);
- Average total goals scored: 1.33 vs 2.2;
- Average total goals conceded: 0.33 vs 1.6.
Last 10 Matches (Overall):
- Number of wins: 4 vs 1;
- Number of losses: 3 vs 4;
- Number of draws: 3 vs 5;
- Average first half total: 1.5 (scored - 0.9, conceded - 0.6) vs 1.1 (scored - 0.4, conceded - 0.7).
- Toronto conceded in the 1st half in 6 of last 7 games (MLS).
Prediction on the outcome
H2H:
- number of encounters - 50;
- home team wins - 20, away team wins - 22, draws - 8.
Statistics: Montreal Impact vs Toronto
- matches played in the tournament: 14 vs 14;
- wins: 4 vs 3;
- win percentage: 29% vs 21%;
- losses: 8 vs 6;
- draws: 2 vs 5.
Last 10 matches:
- wins: 6 vs 1;
- losses: 2 vs 5;
- draws: 2 vs 4.
- Toronto have not won in 12 of last 13 away games (MLS).
- Toronto have not won in last 9 games.
- Toronto have not won in last 8 games (MLS).
Prediction on the over/under
H2H
- today's home team scores on average - 1.4, the guests - 1.74;
- average Over/Under goals in H2H matches - 3.14;
- both teams scored: overall - 29; at the home team's field - 10.
Statistics: Montreal Impact vs Toronto
- average total in the tournament: 3.79 vs 3.64;
- average total goals scored: 1.57 vs 1.57;
- average total in the 1st half: 0.93 vs 0.36;
- average total in the 2nd half: 0.64 vs 1.21;
- Montreal Impact: average total at home in the tournament - 1.67;
- Toronto: average total away in the tournament - 1;
- last 10 matches (average total): 2.3 (home - 2.29) vs 1.7 (away - 1).
- Montreal Impact have scored over 1.5 goals in 6 of last 7 games.
Prediction on BTTS
H2H:
- number of encounters - 50;
- both teams scored all-time - 29 times;
- on the home team’s field - 10 times.
Statistics: Montreal Impact vs Toronto
- number of matches played in the tournament: 14 vs 14;
- number of matches in the season where both teams scored (BTTS): 7 vs 12;
- number of BTTS matches for Montreal Impact at home - 3 (50%);
- number of BTTS matches for Toronto away - 3 (60%).
Last 10 matches:
- number of BTTS matches: 6 vs 10;
- BTTS matches for Montreal Impact at home - 3 (43%);
- BTTS matches for Toronto away - 2 (100%).
- Toronto have scored and conceded in last 12 games.
- Toronto have scored and conceded in last 11 games (MLS).
Correct score prediction
Statistics of frequent results (current season):
- most common score in the tournament: 1:1 (20/218, 9.2%);
- Montreal Impact at home most often finish matches: 0:2 , 1:0 , 1:2 , 2:0 , 2:2 , 4:1 (1/6, 16.7%);
- Toronto away most often play: 0:1 , 2:1 , 3:0 , 3:1 , 3:2 (1/5, 20%).
Based on statistics and probability distribution, the algorithm predicts the top 3 outcomes:
1:1 - 10.67% (odds 7)
2:1 - 8.43% (odds 8)
2:2 - 7.11% (odds 11)
⭐ Editorial Prediction
CF Montréal have shown marked improvement in attack, consistently scoring two or more goals at home and backing up their progress not just with numbers, but with a solid trend of high-scoring performances. Toronto, meanwhile, remain vulnerable at the back: despite a cautious approach, they concede far too often, and away from home they rarely manage more than a single goal-or struggle to make any real impact up front. The standings force the visitors to chase points, but their attacking resources have been limited, as recent stats clearly show. Given these factors, backing Toronto under 1.5 goals looks like the most reasonable prediction.
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Betting Tips: Montreal Impact - Toronto
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Comparison of Teams Stats
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