Real Madrid vs Arsenal Prediction 16 April 2025
🔊 Will Real Madrid pull off another comeback in the Champions League? After a 0-3 defeat in London, Los Blancos' chances of reaching the semifinals are slim. However, the kings of Europe's premier competition have a knack for miraculous performances at their home ground, the Santiago Bernabéu, where the roof will be closed to heighten the atmosphere. Can the Gunners handle the pressure, having not reached the Champions League semifinals since the 2008/09 season?
Head-to-Head
📊 Last week's match marked the first official encounter between the teams since the 2005/06 season, when they competed for a spot in the Champions League quarterfinals. Arsenal surprisingly thrashed Madrid 3-0. Across three Champions League meetings, the "Los Blancos" have yet to find the back of the net against the "Gunners".
Head-to-head statistics Real Madrid - Arsenal

Real Madrid Team Overview
⚪ Real Madrid have become an even more talked-about team following Kylian Mbappe's transfer. The French star didn't adapt immediately, but he's started to make an impact. He's currently the second top scorer in La Liga. However, Mbappe hasn't registered any goal involvements in the last four matches, and Madrid have managed just one win in that stretch, defeating Alaves 1-0 last weekend. Notably, the Frenchman was shown a red card in the first half of that match.
🔗 Real Madrid are often said to succeed without outplaying their opponents, particularly in the Champions League. But nothing of the sort happened in London. The Spaniards weren't favorites at the Emirates, but no one expected a rout either. Real fielded a competitive lineup but created almost nothing up front and conceded three goals.
📣 Madrid's head coach Carlo Ancelotti commented on the defeat in London: “We couldn't respond today. When we tried to do it through individual actions, we were punished and lost some control. The opponent managed the ball better-the result is disappointing.” However, the Italian believes his team can still bounce back: “We need to believe, keep that faith, because such comebacks have happened many times at the Bernabeu.”
❌ In the upcoming match, Dani Carvajal will not play as he recovers from a serious injury, and it's uncertain if he'll regain his former form. That's why the club is trying to sign Trent Alexander-Arnold from Liverpool. Eder Militao is also sidelined. The participation of Andriy Lunin and Ferland Mendy is doubtful as they've missed recent games due to injury. Eduardo Camavinga will also be unavailable after picking up an unnecessary yellow card and then being sent off in the last match.
Match Results: Real Madrid

Arsenal Team Overview
🔴 Arsenal are unbeaten in six consecutive Premier League matches. However, most of these games have ended in draws. This situation means Liverpool could potentially clinch the title next weekend. Nevertheless, the Gunners' second place in the standings remains secure for now. In their last outing, they were held to a 1-1 draw by Brentford. It's been calculated that Arsenal have dropped 16 points this season from winning positions, just one less than their combined total over the past two Premier League seasons.
🔗 In contrast, their first Champions League quarter-final match went smoothly. Declan Rice opened the scoring and doubled the lead himself, both times from direct free-kicks. Such a feat has never been seen before in the Champions League knockout stages. Mikel Merino, who has been forced to adapt as a forward this season, sealed the rout in the closing stages.
📣 Arsenal manager Mikel Arteta is thrilled with Declan Rice's performance: “Declan was very determined. We've been telling him for months that we hadn't scored from a direct free-kick since September 2021. The drought was lengthy, and now a player who had never scored from a free-kick has delivered two such masterful goals.” However, the Spaniard knows the quarter-final is far from over: “We know our opponent. We know the second leg will be different from what we saw today.”
❌ Arsenal will be without Gabriel for the rest of the season, who was considered one of the Premier League's best defenders. Also sidelined are Riccardo Calafiori, Gabriel Jesus, Kai Havertz, and Takehiro Tomiyasu. Ben White's participation is doubtful after missing the last Premier League match. Jorginho and Thomas Partey are also uncertain after picking up injuries against Brentford.
Match Results: Arsenal
Prediction on the outcome
H2H:
- number of encounters - 1;
- home team wins - 0, away team wins - 1, draws - 0.
Statistics: Real Madrid vs Arsenal
- number of matches played in the tournament: 8 vs 8;
- number of wins: 9 vs 8;
- win percentage: 69% vs 73%;
- number of losses: 4 vs 1;
- number of draws: 0 vs 2.
Last 10 matches:
- number of wins: 6 vs 4;
- number of losses: 3 vs 1;
- number of draws: 1 vs 5.
- Arsenal won with a +1.5 handicap in 18 of last 19 games.
- Arsenal won with a +1.5 handicap in 17 of last 18 away games.
- Arsenal won with a +1.5 handicap in their last 11 games (Champions League).
- Arsenal won with a +1.5 handicap in their last 5 away games (Champions League).
Prediction on the over/under
H2H
- today's home team scores on average - 0, the guests - 3;
- average Over/Under goals in H2H matches - 3;
- both teams scored: overall - 0; at the home team's field - 0.
Statistics: Real Madrid vs Arsenal
- average total in the tournament: 3.69 vs 3.09;
- average total goals scored: 2.15 vs 2.55;
- average total in the 1st half: 0.62 vs 1.36;
- average total in the 2nd half: 1.54 vs 1.18;
- Real Madrid: average total at home in the tournament - 3.17;
- Arsenal: average total away in the tournament - 2.8;
- last 10 matches (average total): 1.6 (home - 2.4) vs 1.8 (away - 2.25).
- Over 2.5 goals scored in 7 of last 8 Real Madrid games (Champions League).
- Over 2.5 goals scored in last 6 Real Madrid home games (Champions League).
- Over 2.5 goals scored in last 5 Real Madrid home games.
- Over 2.5 goals scored in last 7 Arsenal games (Champions League).
Prediction on corners
Real Madrid: Statistics
- season: average Over/Under in the tournament - 6.08; at home field - 8.67;
- last 10 matches: average Over/Under - 5.6; at home field - 7.4.
Arsenal: Statistics
- season: average Over/Under in the tournament - 5.82, away - 6.8;
- last 10 matches: average Over/Under - 6.6; away - 7.75.
- Over 9.5 corners in 6 of last 7 Arsenal away games.
Prediction on cards
Real Madrid: Statistics
- season: average Over/Under in the tournament - 2.46; at home - 2;
- last 10 matches: average Over/Under - 2.1; at home - 1.4.
Arsenal: Statistics
- season: average Over/Under in the tournament - 1.45, away - 1;
- last 10 matches: average Over/Under - 1.3; away - 0.75.
Prediction on BTTS
H2H:
- number of encounters - 1;
- both teams scored all-time - 0 times;
- on the home team’s field - 0 times.
Statistics: Real Madrid vs Arsenal
- number of matches played in the tournament: 8 vs 8;
- number of matches in the season where both teams scored (BTTS): 8 vs 4;
- number of BTTS matches for Real Madrid at home - 6 (100%);
- number of BTTS matches for Arsenal away - 3 (60%).
Last 10 matches:
- number of BTTS matches: 7 vs 6;
- BTTS matches for Real Madrid at home - 5 (100%);
- BTTS matches for Arsenal away - 3 (75%).
- Real Madrid have scored and conceded in 12 of last 13 home games.
- Real Madrid have scored and conceded in their last 6 home games (Champions League).
Editor's Prediction
Considering the current form of both teams and their statistical performances, we can anticipate an exciting clash filled with chances. Real Madrid will need to open up from the start, as playing cautiously makes little sense given the scoreline. The Madrid side are likely to opt for an early offensive push, and we believe goals will follow swiftly. We're backing over 2.5 goals, a bet that has come through in seven of Los Blancos' last eight matches and in seven consecutive encounters involving the Gunners in the main European competition.