Cerro Largo vs CA Progreso Prediction, H2H Stats & Statistical Bets 12 November 2026
π Cerro Largo go into the 14th round without a clear league objective, sitting second from bottom. Progreso are 11 points behind the leaders and are competing for a place near the top. Neither team have produced consistent results in recent matches, but the statistics point to few goals in Cerro Largoβs home games. This suggests a cautious match with a limited number of goals.
The visitors trail in every metric
Cerro Largo beat Progreso 1-0 away from home in the Primera match on 03 May 2026. The hosts had 57% possession and registered 18 shots off target to Cerro Largoβs six, but the difference in shots on target was minimal at 4-3.
In 21 official meetings, Cerro Largo have won 13, Progreso have won two, and the other six matches ended in draws. Cerro Largo also have a clear advantage in goals scored: 25-13.
Head-to-head statistics Cerro Largo - CA Progreso
Defence more reliable than attack
In their latest Primera match on 31 October 2026, Cerro Largo lost 3-1 away to Racing Montevideo after trailing 2-0 at half-time. Despite having 65% possession and leading 68-50 in dangerous attacks, they managed only three shots on target to their opponentsβ six.
Cerro Largo have been inconsistent this season: just 2 wins and 6 defeats in their last 10 matches. In their last five, they have won once and lost four times. They average 0.88 goals per home game, in line with a trend of fewer than 1.5 goals scored in 20 of their last 21 matches. They concede an average of 1.18 goals per game, which is not critical, but it does not make up for their weak attack. The hosts have no clear league objective, but remain highly motivated for the matches ahead.
Match Results: Cerro Largo FC
Every goal is hard-earned
Progreso lost 0:2 at home to Defensor Sporting in their previous Primera match on 1 November 2026, although the score was still level at half-time. The hosts had more possession and dangerous attacks, but were outshot 3:7 on target.
Progreso go into the match with mixed results. In their last 10 matches, they have recorded 5 wins, 4 defeats and one draw, averaging 1.2 goals scored and 1.2 conceded per match. Progreso have scored at least one goal in 9 of their last 10 games, indicating consistency in attack even in less favourable circumstances. However, their overall inconsistency in results affects their concentration.
Match Results: CA Progreso
Match Result Prediction
Cerro Largo have failed to win 16 of their last 18 matches, while Progreso have covered the +1.5 handicap in nine consecutive away matches. This season, Cerro Largo have won 4 of their 16 home matches. However, Progreso have lost 10 of their 18 away matches this season, so the visitors still risk defeat. Our pick is Progreso to Win or Draw at odds of 1.87*.
Total Goals Prediction
Fewer than 2.5 goals have been scored in each of Cerro Largoβs last 11 home matches. Over their last ten home matches, they have scored and conceded an average of 0.6 goals per match; over Progresoβs last ten away matches, those figures are 1.4 scored and 1 conceded. Over 1.5 goals has landed in six of Cerro Largoβs last seven matches, which limits confidence in a low-scoring outcome. Nevertheless, we pick Total Goals - Under 2.5 at odds of 1.76*.
High-Risk Bet
Cerro Largo have failed to win 16 of their last 18 matches. Progreso have won 5 of their 18 away matches this season and have scored an average of 1.4 goals in their last ten away matches, compared with Cerro Largoβs 0.6 goals in their last ten home matches. However, Progreso have also lost 10 away matches this season, so an outright away win is considerably riskier than double chance. As a bolder option, we pick Progreso to win at odds of 3.90*.
*The odds are indicative and may vary between bookmakers.*
Safer Bet
CA Progreso have covered the (+1.5) handicap in nine consecutive away matches. Cerro Largo FC have scored an average of 0.6 goals in their last ten home matches, compared with 1.06 across the entire home season. These figures support the selection of CA Progreso - Handicap +1.5 at odds of 1.30*.
Correct Score Prediction
According to the algorithm's calculations, the top three scorelines are 1:0 (14.61%), 1:1 (12.21%) and 0:0 (10.53%). Of these, 1:0 has the highest probability. The probabilities of the other two scorelines are 12.21% and 10.53%, respectively.
β Editor's Pick
Both teams come into the match on the back of low-scoring performances, which often leads to a less intense contest and a slower tempo. Cerro Largo traditionally play low-scoring matches at home - a run of 11 consecutive home matches with under 2.5 goals confirms this trend. Even taking Progreso's consistent attacking output into account, both teams rarely play in high-scoring matches overall. The main prediction is Total Goals - Under 3.
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Betting Tips: Cerro Largo FC - CA Progreso
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in 23 of last 24 Cerro Largo FC games.in 19 of last 20 Cerro Largo FC games (Primera Division).in 16 of last 17 CA Progreso away games.in 15 of last 16 CA Progreso away games (Primera Division).in 7 of last 8 CA Progreso games.in 6 of last 7 CA Progreso games (Primera Division).in 6 of last 7 Cerro Largo FC games (Primera Division).in 7 of last 8 CA Progreso games (Primera Division).in 6 of last 7 CA Progreso games.in 20 of last 21 games.in 16 of last 17 games (Primera Division).in 9 of last 10 home games.in 7 of last 8 home games (Primera Division).Comparison of Teams Stats
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