Chelsea vs Bournemouth Prediction, H2H Stats & Statistical Bets 10 October 2026

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Key points

    🔊 Chelsea are back at home after a dismal derby last time out - a 3-0 defeat to Brentford - and they face a side they have historically done well against: Bournemouth. The Cherries have been a consistent presence in the top flight for the past ten years, so the two clubs have met at least twice a season throughout that period. Going into this fixture, Chelsea have been involved in the highest-scoring matches of the early season, with 22 goals in five games. Bournemouth are one of three sides yet to win in the opening matches of the season and sit 17th in the table. On paper, this looks like a straightforward home win. But is it? Let's take a closer look.

    Bournemouth haven't beaten Chelsea in a long time, but the sides often share the spoils when they meet.

    📊 The last three head-to-head meetings have all ended in draws. Two of them were high-scoring (2-2), while one finished goalless (0-0). The historical advantage lies with Chelsea: Bournemouth have not beaten the Blues in nine consecutive matches, with Chelsea winning four of those nine and the remaining five ending level.

    Head-to-head statistics Chelsea - Bournemouth

    57%
    12 Wins
    24%
    5 Draws
    19%
    4 Wins
    Total games
    21
    Avg. total goals
    2.67
    Both teams scored
    43%
    1.67
    Average total
    1
    Last matches
    10.10.26
    EPL
    Chelsea
    Chelsea
    Bournemouth
    Bournemouth
    1.11
    1.03
    1
    7
    7
    15
    0
    4
    5
    1
    2
    0
    3
    1
    1.11
    1.03
    1
    7
    7
    15
    0
    4
    30.12.25
    EPL
    Chelsea
    Chelsea
    Bournemouth
    Bournemouth
    2.75
    2.73
    12
    3
    5
    12
    1
    1
    2
    2
    2
    2
    0
    0
    2.75
    2.73
    12
    3
    5
    12
    1
    1
    06.12.25
    EPL
    Bournemouth
    Bournemouth
    Chelsea
    Chelsea
    1.34
    1.09
    5
    0
    15
    13
    0
    2
    0
    0
    0
    0
    0
    0
    1.34
    1.09
    5
    0
    15
    13
    0
    2
    14.01.25
    EPL
    Chelsea
    Chelsea
    Bournemouth
    Bournemouth
    2.54
    1.15
    9
    3
    15
    16
    2
    3
    2
    2
    1
    0
    1
    2
    2.54
    1.15
    9
    3
    15
    16
    2
    3
    14.09.24
    EPL
    Bournemouth
    Bournemouth
    Chelsea
    Chelsea
    -
    -
    6
    3
    16
    9
    6
    8
    0
    1
    0
    0
    0
    1
    -
    -
    6
    3
    16
    9
    6
    8
    Empty
    There are no events
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    Chelsea: the league’s weakest defence

    After five league rounds, Chelsea sit exactly in the middle of the table. With no European football this season, they have every chance of pushing into the upper half of the table by virtue of playing fewer matches than some of their rivals. Defensively, though, improvements are urgently needed - Chelsea have conceded more goals than any other side in the league so far, a consequence of their attacking style and a weakened midfield.

    Last round was a poor one for the Blues, and Xabi Alonso now needs to make changes to end a run of three league matches without a win. The brighter side of their start has been the League Cup, where they have come through two rounds by beating Luton (2-0) and Leeds (6-3). In total, six of Chelsea's opening seven matches across all competitions have seen them concede at least two goals.

    Match Results: Chelsea

    Last matches
    08.11.26
    EPL
    Sunderland
    Sunderland
    Chelsea
    Chelsea
    2.32
    0.69
    2
    2
    17
    8
    5
    4
    1
    0
    1
    0
    0
    0
    2.32
    0.69
    2
    2
    17
    8
    5
    4
    L
    31.10.26
    EPL
    Chelsea
    Chelsea
    Manchester United
    Manchester United
    1
    2.35
    1.11
    8
    7
    8
    20
    1
    4
    2
    0
    0
    0
    2
    0
    2.35
    1.11
    8
    7
    8
    20
    1
    4
    W
    28.10.26
    EFL Cup
    Liverpool
    Liverpool
    Chelsea
    Chelsea
    2.47
    2.02
    7
    5
    12
    9
    2
    2
    1
    1
    1
    1
    0
    0
    6
    5
    2.47
    2.02
    7
    5
    12
    9
    2
    2
    L
    24.10.26
    EPL
    Chelsea
    Chelsea
    1
    Tottenham Hotspur
    Tottenham Hotspur
    0.46
    0.84
    4
    6
    14
    14
    3
    3
    0
    2
    0
    0
    0
    2
    0.46
    0.84
    4
    6
    14
    14
    3
    3
    L
    17.10.26
    EPL
    Everton
    Everton
    Chelsea
    Chelsea
    0.51
    1.38
    5
    7
    8
    15
    3
    4
    0
    2
    0
    0
    0
    2
    0.51
    1.38
    5
    7
    8
    15
    3
    4
    W
    Empty
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    Bournemouth: pragmatism often lets the team down

    Bournemouth are still looking for their first league win of the season. Their pragmatic approach has increasingly led to situations where they find themselves trying to hold a draw. Sometimes that earns a point, but in their last match it cost them one - Liverpool went ahead in the second half and the Cherries came away with nothing at home. A trip to Newcastle and a two-goal lead by the 35th minute should have brought three points, but sitting on the scoreline again denied them the win, with the match finishing 2-2.

    In cup competitions, the start of the season has been more encouraging. Bournemouth came through to the next round of the League Cup by beating Lincoln 4-0, and picked up their first three points in the Europa League league phase with a hard-fought away win at Real Sociedad (2-1). Away from home in general, the team have been consistently productive: all three of their away matches this season have ended with Both Teams to Score - Yes landing.

    Match Results: Bournemouth

    Last matches
    08.11.26
    EPL
    Ipswich Town
    Ipswich Town
    Bournemouth
    Bournemouth
    1.24
    1.62
    2
    7
    6
    20
    2
    3
    1
    2
    0
    1
    1
    1
    1.24
    1.62
    2
    7
    6
    20
    2
    3
    W
    05.11.26
    UEL
    Sparta Prague
    Sparta Prague
    1
    Bournemouth
    Bournemouth
    1.66
    2.6
    3
    10
    10
    11
    3
    2
    1
    3
    1
    0
    0
    3
    1.66
    2.6
    3
    10
    10
    11
    3
    2
    W
    31.10.26
    EPL
    Bournemouth
    Bournemouth
    Leeds United
    Leeds United
    0.07
    0.59
    1
    0
    1
    4
    0
    0
    2
    0
    1
    0
    1
    0
    0.07
    0.59
    1
    0
    1
    4
    0
    0
    W
    28.10.26
    EFL Cup
    Bournemouth
    Bournemouth
    Aston Villa
    Aston Villa
    2.85
    1.94
    6
    2
    13
    15
    3
    3
    3
    0
    1
    0
    2
    0
    2.85
    1.94
    6
    2
    13
    15
    3
    3
    W
    25.10.26
    EPL
    Manchester United
    Manchester United
    Bournemouth
    Bournemouth
    1.26
    1.39
    5
    4
    13
    17
    4
    1
    0
    3
    0
    2
    0
    1
    1.26
    1.39
    5
    4
    13
    17
    4
    1
    W
    Empty
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    Latest news

    Chelsea

    ❓ The participation of several players is in doubt: Moisés Caicedo, João Pedro and Marco Palestra.

    Bournemouth

    ❌ Justin Kluivert and Alex Scott will both miss the match for their side.

    ❓ David Brooks and Amin Adli are doubts.

    Predicted Lineups

    📋 Predicted Chelsea XI: Martínez - Lacroix, Colwill, Fofana - Neto, James, Lavia, Cavarría - Rogers, Palmer - Welbeck.

    📋 Predicted Bournemouth XI: Petrović - Smith, Hill, Silva, Truffert - Adams, Christie, Cook - Ryan, Evanilson, Tavernier.

    ⚽ Goals Prediction

    Every home match the hosts have played this season has produced at least three goals, and often more. There is good reason to think the game against Bournemouth will be no different, as both of Bournemouth's away matches in this Premier League season have also featured at least three goals. The prediction is Total Goals - Over 2.5 at odds of 1.5*.

    🚩 Corner Kick Prediction

    At Stamford Bridge, the home side traditionally take control of the ball. On average in their home matches they generate enormous pressure, which translates into a high number of corners. In their last meeting at this ground, the Blues delivered a record 12 corners. There is every reason to expect the hosts to win at least six corners, and the price on Chelsea Team Total Corners - Over 5.5 is 1.6*.

    🟨 Yellow Cards Prediction

    The Cherries use an active high press. In away matches against top clubs they commit an average of around 12-14 fouls, which translates to a minimum of 2-3 bookings per game. Meetings between these two sides at Stamford Bridge have traditionally been nervy affairs. Tight midfield play and quick counter-attacks down the flanks force defenders on both sides into tactical fouls. The prediction is Total Yellow Cards - Over 3.5 at 1.69*.

    🚀 Player Statistics Bet

    Morgan Rogers is an attacking midfielder at Chelsea. In our view, he looks well placed to register a goal involvement in this match. During the international break he was called up to the national team and scored a goal and provided an assist across his last two appearances. We're backing Rogers to score or assist against Bournemouth at odds of 1.9*.

    😱 Risky Bet

    For those looking for a bet at a bigger price, we've put together the following option. Bournemouth's somewhat poor recent form will probably prevent them from taking all three points today, and Chelsea are unlikely to lose, but the hosts' form suggests that Xabi Alonso's entire footballing concept at his new club is built around both teams scoring. The risky bet is Chelsea not to lose + Both Teams to Score - Yes, priced at 3*.

    🎯 Reliable Bet

    In four of their five Premier League matches so far, Chelsea have either scored or conceded in the first half. Across those opening 45 minutes, 12 goals have been scored in total in Chelsea's matches - an average of three per game. Bournemouth have also started their away fixtures brightly this season: in both of their away matches, against Manchester City and Newcastle, the Cherries scored before half-time and conceded twice in the first 45 minutes as well. The reliable bet here is 1st Half Total Goals - Over 0.5 at 1.25*.

    👀 If the match doesn't go to script

    It's hard to imagine this game ending as a low-scoring affair or a clean-sheet win for either side, but we'll consider that possibility in this section. Only one Premier League match since the start of the season has seen Chelsea fail to land the Both Teams to Score - Yes bet - when they were heavily beaten by Brentford last round. In case Xabi Alonso's side repeat that defeat, or take the lessons from that game and win without conceding, we're offering the following alternative: Both Teams to Score - No, priced at 2.55*.

    *Odds are approximate and may vary across different bookmakers.

    ⭐️ Editorial Prediction

    In the new season, Chelsea have ended four of their five league matches with both teams scoring. They lead the league in goals conceded and play in an open style. In every Premier League match they have played so far this season, the Blues have conceded at least twice, with Brighton and Brentford both managing to score three against them. Bournemouth are known for causing problems for top sides and taking points off them, and they could well find a goal here - as could the hosts. Our prediction is Both Teams to Score - Yes. Predicted score: 2-1.

    Both Teams to Score – (Yes)
    MyBookie
    Place a bet-192
    Published: 09/10/2026, 10:21
    Daniil Shilovich
    Daniil Shilovich
    Football expert
    23
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    Statistics for November 2026

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    Betting Tips: Chelsea - Bournemouth

    Chelsea have not lost:
    chelsea-fcafc-bournemouthin last 9 games against Bournemouth (Premier League).
    Bournemouth have not won:
    afc-bournemouthin last 7 games (Premier League).
    Chelsea will not lose
    Everygame
    -417
    Bournemouth have not lost:
    afc-bournemouthin 24 of last 26 games.
    afc-bournemouthin 21 of last 23 games (Premier League).
    afc-bournemouthin 13 of last 14 away games.
    afc-bournemouthin 11 of last 12 away games (Premier League).
    Bournemouth will not lose
    Everygame
    -102
    Under 4.5 goals scored:
    chelsea-fcafc-bournemouthin last 18 Chelsea games against Bournemouth.
    chelsea-fcafc-bournemouthin last 16 Chelsea games against Bournemouth (Premier League).
    chelsea-fcafc-bournemouthin last 11 Chelsea home games against Bournemouth.
    chelsea-fcafc-bournemouthin last 9 Chelsea home games against Bournemouth (Premier League).
    chelsea-fcin 12 of last 14 Chelsea games (Premier League).
    chelsea-fcin 8 of last 9 Chelsea home games (Premier League).
    afc-bournemouthin last 22 Bournemouth games.
    afc-bournemouthin last 20 Bournemouth games (Premier League).
    afc-bournemouthin last 12 Bournemouth away games (Premier League).
    Total goals Under (4,5)
    -455
    Chelsea have conceded:
    chelsea-fcin last 21 games (Premier League).
    chelsea-fcin 11 of last 12 games.
    chelsea-fcin last 10 home games (Premier League).
    chelsea-fcin 7 of last 8 home games.
    Bournemouth have scored:
    afc-bournemouthin 14 of last 15 games.
    afc-bournemouthin 12 of last 13 games (Premier League).
    afc-bournemouthin last 7 away games.
    afc-bournemouthin last 6 away games (Premier League).
    Bournemouth will score goal
    Everygame
    -333
    View more facts

    Comparison of Teams Stats

    10 matches
    4 - Wins
    1 - Draw
    5 - Losses
    Wins - 8
    Draws - 0
    Losses - 2
    10 matches
    Scored - 19
    Conceded - 15
    +4
    +14
    22 - Scored
    8 - Conceded
    4
    Wins
    8
    1
    Draws
    0
    5
    Losses
    2
    Goal difference
    19
    Scored
    22
    15
    Conceded
    8
    3.4
    Average total per match
    3
    1.9
    Goals scored per match on average
    2.2
    1.5
    Goals conceded per match on average
    0.8
    5
    Both teams scored
    3
    47'
    Minutes / Goal scored
    41'
    View all stats