Gremio vs Sao Paulo Prediction 8 August 2026
🔊 The round 22 Brasileirão Série A match between Grêmio and São Paulo will be played at Arena Grêmio in Porto Alegre. The hosts, sitting 17th, continue their fight to stay in the top flight and trail 12th-placed São Paulo by five points. Grêmio will look to avenge their first-leg defeat using home advantage, while the visitors are hoping to end their winless run in the league and extend the gap from the relegation zone.
Head-to-Head
The last official match between the teams took place on 12 February 2026 and ended with a score of 2:0. Here is the comparative statistics from that match (home side - São Paulo):
- possession: 58% vs 42%;
- corner kicks: 3 vs 3;
- fouls: 7 vs 12;
- yellow cards: 2 vs 2;
- shots on target: 4 vs 1.
📊 Statistical preview based on official meetings between Grêmio and São Paulo:
- 39 matches played;
- home wins - 16, away wins - 15, draws - 8;
- goals scored - 41 vs 41;
- average total in the 1st half - 0.9, in the 2nd - 1.21;
- average total goals per match - 2.1.
Head-to-head statistics Gremio - Sao Paulo
Gremio Team Overview
The team's last official match was played on in the Copa do Brasil (home side - Grêmio, away side - Mirassol). The match ended 1:0.
The match stats were as follows (Grêmio vs Mirassol):
- possession: 42% vs 58%;
- corners: 1 vs 6;
- fouls: 14 vs 14;
- yellow cards: 4 vs 3;
- shots on target: 3 vs 0.
Luís Castro's side are having a mixed season. In the league, Grêmio still lack consistency, though at home the team looks considerably more confident. The club have also been competing in the Copa do Brasil, where they managed to get past Mirassol thanks to a home win by a score of 1-0 after a draw in the first leg (1-1). At the same time, the "immortal tricolors" have been eliminated from the Copa Sudamericana, losing to Bolívar on aggregate (2-3, 0-1).
At home, Grêmio traditionally play more aggressively and take control of the game far more often. Added motivation will come from their desire to close the gap on the group of teams competing for spots in international tournaments. That said, the team's defence still lacks reliability - the match against Mirassol was the first in nine games in which Grêmio managed to keep a clean sheet.
Match Results: Gremio
Sao Paulo Team Overview
The last official match of the current away side took place in the Série A tournament (home side - Flamengo, away side - São Paulo). The match ended 1:1.
The match stats were as follows (São Paulo vs Flamengo):
- possession: 46% vs 54%;
- corners: 2 vs 5;
- fouls: 18 vs 15;
- yellow cards: 3 vs 1;
- shots on target: 1 vs 6.
São Paulo under Dorival Júnior continue to sit in the bottom half of the table. In the latest round, the Tricolor drew with reigning champions Flamengo (1:1) away from home, and that result can be considered a positive one. However, the team's winless run in the league now stands at seven matches - three draws and four defeats. Ahead of the trip to Porto Alegre, the coaching staff used the break to do some extra work with the squad.
The reserves played a friendly against Ituano and won comfortably 4:0, while the first-team players focused on recovery and preparation for the match with Grêmio. One of São Paulo's main problems remains their away form - in their last nine away matches across all competitions, the team have managed just three draws against six defeats. Nevertheless, the quality of their squad means they can be expected to score at least one goal in virtually every match.
Match Results: Sao Paulo
Prediction for the 1st half
Head-to-head record:
- matches played - 39;
- first-half wins for the home side - 8; for the away side - 4; draws - 7;
- average first-half total: 0.9;
- today's home side average 0.44 goals in the first half, the away side - 0.46.
First-half stats: Grêmio (home) vs São Paulo (away)
- matches played in the tournament: 10 vs 11;
- wins: 3 (30%) vs 1 (9.09%);
- losses: 1 (10%) vs 5 (45.45%);
- draws: 6 (60%) vs 5 (45.45%);
- average goals scored: 1 vs 0.82;
- average goals conceded: 0.4 vs 0.64.
Last 10 matches (overall):
- wins: 2 vs 4;
- losses: 4 vs 1;
- draws: 4 vs 5;
- average first-half total: 1.5 (scored - 0.6, conceded - 0.9) vs 0.9 (scored - 0.6, conceded - 0.3).
- Grêmio have drawn the first half in 6 of their last 7 matches (Brazil Série A).
- São Paulo have drawn the first half away in 6 of their last 7 matches.
Total Prediction
Head-to-head matches (average total):
- home side - 1.05, away side - 1.05;
- in head-to-head matches - 2.1;
- both teams scored: all time - 18 times; at the home team's ground - 9 times.
Average total statistics: Grêmio vs São Paulo
- in the tournament: 2.4 vs 2.4;
- goals scored: 1.1 vs 1.25;
- 1st half: 0.4 vs 0.4;
- 2nd half: 0.7 vs 0.85;
- Grêmio: at home in the tournament - 1.6;
- São Paulo: away in the tournament - 0.91;
- last 10 matches: 1.4 (home - 1.43) vs 1 (away - 0.83).
- Grêmio have scored under 1.5 goals in 12 of their last 13 matches (Brazil Série A).
- Grêmio have scored under 1.5 goals in 6 of their last 7 matches.
Corners Prediction
Grêmio: Statistics
- season: average total in the tournament - 4.25; at home - 5.4;
- last 10 matches: average total - 5.5; at home - 6.14.
São Paulo: Statistics
- season: average total in the tournament - 6.5, away - 5.45;
- last 10 matches: average total - 5.3; away - 4.67.
- Total over 9.5 corners has landed in 6 of Grêmio's last 7 home matches.
Both Teams to Score Prediction
Head-to-head matches:
- played - 39;
- both teams scored all time - 18 times;
- at the home team's ground - 9 times.
Stats: Grêmio vs São Paulo
- matches played in the tournament: 20 vs 20;
- season matches in which both teams scored (hereinafter - BTS): 12 vs 12;
- Grêmio: BTS at home - 6 (60%);
- São Paulo: BTS away - 7 (64%).
Last 10 matches:
- matches with BTS: 7 vs 7;
- Grêmio: BTS at home - 4 (57%);
- São Paulo: BTS away - 4 (67%).
- Grêmio have scored and conceded in 5 matches in a row (Brazil Série A).
- São Paulo have scored and conceded in 6 of their last 7 matches (Brazil Série A).
Correct Score Prediction
Frequent results statistics (current season):
- most common score in the tournament: 1:1 (33/205, 16.1%);
- Grêmio at home most often finish matches: 1:1 (2/10, 20%);
- São Paulo away most often play: 1:1 (3/11, 27.3%).
Based on statistics and probability distribution, the algorithm predicts the top 3 outcomes:
1:1 - 13.7% (odds 6)
1:0 - 10.19% (odds 7.5)
0:1 - 9.24% (odds 8.5)
⭐ Editor's Pick
Grêmio come into this match after a demanding cup week, but at home they traditionally perform with considerably more confidence. São Paulo should look the fresher side physically, yet away matches remain a weak point for the team. In all likelihood, the hosts will look to take the initiative, while the visitors will seek their chances on the counter.
Given that Grêmio have scored and conceded in their last five league matches, and São Paulo have exchanged goals with their opponents in six of their previous seven Série A rounds, the most justified bet looks to be both teams to score (yes). Predicted score - 1:1.
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Betting Tips: Gremio - Sao Paulo
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