Pachuca vs Toluca Prediction, H2H Stats & Statistical Bets 10 May 2026
💥 Pachuca and Toluca are gearing up for a decisive second-leg clash in the quarterfinals of the Clausura phase in Mexico's Liga MX. Their first encounter last week ended with Pachuca narrowly edging out Toluca 1-0, keeping the suspense at an all-time high. Toluca now face the challenge of overturning the deficit, while the hosts aim to capitalize on their home advantage to secure their progress. The intensity of this matchup promises to keep fans on the edge of their seats until the final whistle.
Head-to-Head
The last official match between the teams ended with a score of 0-1. Here's a comparative breakdown of that encounter (Toluca were the home side):
- possession: 72% vs 28%;
- corner kicks: 10 vs 4;
- fouls: 10 vs 14;
- yellow cards: 1 vs 2;
- shots on target: 4 vs 6.
📊Statistical preview of official matches between Pachuca and Toluca:
- 50 matches played;
- home wins: 17, away wins: 19, draws: 14;
- goals scored: 71 for Pachuca, 73 for Toluca;
- average goals in the first half: 1.28, second half: 1.6;
- average total goals per match: 2.88.
Head-to-head statistics Pachuca - Toluca
Pachuca Team Overview
Pachuca have secured fourth place in the standings and are showing strong form on their home turf. In their last five matches, they've claimed three victories while suffering two defeats, highlighting their ability to compete until the final whistle. Their attack looks impressive, boasting an average of 1.7 goals per game over their last ten encounters. However, their defense could be a weak point, conceding an average of 1.3 goals per match.
Match Results: Pachuca
Deportivo Toluca Team Overview
Toluca have climbed to fifth place in Liga MX, powered by their strong attacking play and solid defense. On the road, they often delight their fans with victories, although there have been slip-ups-four wins and five losses in their last ten matches highlight this inconsistency. Nevertheless, with an average scoring rate of 2.1 goals per game, Toluca pose a serious threat to any opponent.
Match Results: Deportivo Toluca
Prediction for the 1st half
Head-to-Head Matches:
- Total encounters - 50;
- First-half wins at home for hosts - 7; for visitors away - 7; number of draws - 10;
- Average first-half total: 1.28;
- Today's home team scores on average 0.64, while the visitors net 0.64.
First-Half Stats: Pachuca (home) vs Toluca (away)
- matches played in the tournament: 18 vs 20;
- wins: 7 (38.89%) vs 5 (25%);
- losses: 4 (22.22%) vs 4 (20%);
- draws: 7 (38.89%) vs 11 (55%);
- Average goals scored: 1.17 vs 0.85;
- Average goals conceded: 0.5 vs 0.35.
Last 10 Matches (Overall):
- wins: 3 vs 3;
- losses: 5 vs 2;
- draws: 2 vs 5;
- Average first-half total: 1.5 (scored - 0.6, conceded - 0.9) vs 0.8 (scored - 0.5, conceded - 0.3).
- Pachuca have lost the 1st half in 7 of last 8 games against Toluca (Liga MX).
- Pachuca have lost the 1st half in last 4 home games against Toluca (Liga MX).
Prediction on the outcome
H2H:
- number of encounters - 50;
- home team wins - 17, away team wins - 19, draws - 14.
- Pachuca won with a +1.5 handicap in last 24 home games against Toluca.
- Pachuca won with a +1.5 handicap in last 22 home games against Toluca (Liga MX).
- Pachuca won with a +1.5 handicap in 14 of last 15 games against Toluca (Liga MX).
- Pachuca won with a +1.5 handicap in 15 of last 17 games (Liga MX).
- Pachuca won with a +1.5 handicap in 12 of last 13 home games (Liga MX).
Prediction on the over/under
H2H
- today's home team scores on average - 1.42, the guests - 1.46;
- average Over/Under goals in H2H matches - 2.88;
- both teams scored: overall - 27; at the home team's field - 17.
Statistics: Pachuca vs Toluca
- average total in the tournament: 2.54 vs 2.9;
- average total goals scored: 1.38 vs 1.9;
- average total in the 1st half: 0.68 vs 0.8;
- average total in the 2nd half: 0.7 vs 1.1;
- Pachuca: average total at home in the tournament - 1.44;
- Toluca: average total away in the tournament - 1.5;
- last 10 matches (average total): 1.7 (home - 1.8) vs 2.1 (away - 1.6).
- Over 2.5 goals scored in 6 of last 7 Toluca games.
Prediction on corners
Pachuca: Statistics
- season: average Over/Under in the tournament - 4.7; at home field - 5.39;
- last 10 matches: average Over/Under - 5.1; at home field - 6.2.
Toluca: Statistics
- season: average Over/Under in the tournament - 5.61, away - 5.8;
- last 10 matches: average Over/Under - 5.1; away - 5.4.
- Over 9.5 corners in last 7 Toluca away games (Liga MX).
Prediction on BTTS
H2H:
- number of encounters - 50;
- both teams scored all-time - 27 times;
- on the home team’s field - 17 times.
- Pachuca have scored and conceded in 9 of last 10 home games against Toluca.
- Pachuca have scored and conceded in last 6 home games against Toluca (Liga MX).
Correct score prediction
Statistics of frequent results (current season):
- most common score in the tournament: 1:1 (37/327, 11.3%);
- Pachuca at home most often finish matches: 2:1 (4/18, 22.2%);
- Toluca away most often play: 0:0 , 1:0 (4/20, 20%).
Based on statistics and probability distribution, the algorithm predicts the top 3 outcomes:
1:1 - 11.46% (odds 6.5)
0:1 - 9.02% (odds 8.5)
1:2 - 8.81% (odds 9)
⭐ Editorial Prediction
The need to score at least one goal will push Toluca to attack in full force from the first minute, inevitably creating open spaces for Pachuca's counterattacks. The home side are known for their high scoring rate in home games and are unlikely to miss the chance to punish their opponents for taking risks. The visitors boast one of the most formidable attacking lines in the league and can break down any defense when they are trailing. Given the attacking style of both teams and the high stakes, a goal exchange seems the most logical scenario for this match. A 1-1 draw is possible.
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Betting Tips: Pachuca - Deportivo Toluca
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