Aston Villa vs West Ham Prediction 10 January 2025

🔊 Which team will advance to the FA Cup Round of 16? Once upon a time, Unai Emery was renowned for excelling in such tournaments. Partly because of this, his Aston Villa is considered the favorite, especially since they will host West Ham at Villa Park. However, the Birmingham side has a tight schedule with European competitions looming. Rotation from the home side is expected. Therefore, this matchup is not so straightforward. We will consider different options to make the prediction optimal.

📊 Head-to-Head

In a stretch of 12 head-to-head matches, West Ham has the advantage with 50% wins. However, the last time they succeeded was back in the 2022/23 season. Since then, the "Hammers" have not known victory in four consecutive matches. In August, they even lost to Aston Villa on their home turf in the Premier League (1:2). The match was quite balanced, but substitute John Duran secured the win for his team by scoring in the 79th minute. Notably, the Londoners have not lost by more than one goal in 10 of the last 11 head-to-head matches. Therefore, as a potential bet, we'll note West Ham's win with a handicap (+1.5).

🦁 Aston Villa

Aston Villa is having a challenging season. The Champions League casts a shadow, where the team has secured an early playoff berth. In the Premier League, they are in 8th place but only four points behind the top four. Therefore, there's still a chance to fight not only for European competitions but specifically for the Champions League. In a span of seven matches, Aston Villa lost only to Nottingham (1:2) and Newcastle (0:3), who are objectively better at the moment. Last weekend, Emery's team defeated Leicester (2:1), with Ross Barkley and Leon Bailey scoring, players who rarely feature this season, especially in the starting lineup. For Bailey, it was his first goal of the current campaign. Notably, John McGinn was injured against Leicester and will be missed as captain in the upcoming match. Pau Torres and Diego Carlos missed one match each, leading to a personnel shortage in defense.

⚒ West Ham

West Ham hasn't made progress compared to last season. The team started to find some form in December with four consecutive unbeaten matches. But then the schedule brought Liverpool, from whom the "Hammers" conceded five unanswered goals. The match against Manchester City also ended in a rout (1:4). This marked the end of Julen Lopetegui's tenure at West Ham. However, the club quickly found a replacement in Graham Potter. It's expected that he will lead the team against Aston Villa. "Boxing Day" was unfortunate for West Ham regarding injuries. Fabianski, Emerson, Todibo, and Bowen missed 1-2 matches each.

🟨 Foul Prediction

This season, West Ham commits more fouls - 11.8 compared to 11.3. In their matches, there are an average of 22 fouls, while Aston Villa's average is 24.2. In their only head-to-head meeting this season, there were just three yellow cards but many minor fouls. As a result, there were 29 fouls recorded. In this situation, it's worth betting on total fouls over 20.5.

⚽️ Goal Prediction

Julen Lopetegui couldn't solve the defensive issues despite having an excellent set of defensive players. However, the team looked good in attack. At least they managed to score in 11 of their last 12 away matches. Considering that Aston Villa hasn't kept a clean sheet in 10 consecutive head-to-head matches, it's worth considering a bet - West Ham to score.

🚩 Corner Prediction

Aston Villa has the advantage in corners this season - 5.9 compared to 4.8. However, West Ham has had at least five corners in 6 of their last 7 head-to-head matches. This includes a meeting that took place this season. However, we advise playing it safe and choosing West Ham total corners over 3.5.

📝 Match Prediction

Aston Villa is the favorite for the upcoming match. They can be considered a dark horse in the FA Cup. At home, they have every chance of winning but by a narrow margin, for example, 2:1.

The coaching change should shake up West Ham. They are likely to attack with more enthusiasm. However, attacking wasn't a major issue even under Lopetegui, especially recently. Potter won't be able to fix the defense in just a few days. Therefore, we will likely see a similar West Ham that leads to the key bet - both teams to score (Yes). Moreover, this bet has been successful in 9 of the last 10 head-to-head matches between these teams.