Minnesota United vs Earthquakes Prediction, H2H Stats & Statistical Bets 8 November 2026
🔉 Minnesota United go into the final round of the season with plenty to play for: they are just 2 points outside the MLS play-off places, and every point is now worth its weight in gold. San Jose Earthquakes, meanwhile, have no league position to fight for - they have secured a place in the top half of the table and head into their final match without pressure. The two sides therefore meet with different levels of motivation and markedly different aims for the game.
The teams know how to score goals
Minnesota United thrashed San Jose Earthquakes 5-1 away from home in an MLS match on 23 August 2026, although both teams had 11 shots and the hosts led on expected goals, 1.96 to 1.72.
📊 In 22 competitive meetings, Minnesota United have won 10 times, San Jose Earthquakes 8, and the other 4 matches have ended in draws. Minnesota's advantage is small, but they have won both at home and away. The matches have averaged 3.45 goals, and both teams have scored in 68% of them.
Head-to-head statistics Minnesota United - Earthquakes
Only a win will do
Minnesota United’s win over Los Angeles in their last MLS match on 2 November 2026 came despite the shot count: the visitors won 3-1, taking just 6 shots to the hosts’ 22. Minnesota had three shots on target - and scored with every one.
Minnesota United have shown inconsistent form towards the end of the season, with three wins and two defeats in their last five matches. In their last ten games, they have won three times, lost four times and drawn three times. Their averages indicate a fairly high-scoring run: 1.9 goals scored and 2 conceded per match over their last 10 games. Across the season, Minnesota United have averaged 1.61 goals scored and 1.73 conceded per match, suggesting a tendency towards open games with frequent goals at both ends. Strong motivation for the decisive round could make them even more attack-minded.
Match Results: Minnesota United
No fewer points are needed
San Jose Earthquakes beat Real Salt Lake 2-1 at home in their previous MLS match on 31 October 2026. All the goals were scored before half-time; despite having less possession and taking slightly fewer shots, San Jose Earthquakes had a higher expected goals figure: 2.13 to 1.19.
San Jose Earthquakes have had a consistent season and established themselves in the top three, but the team now lack a clear incentive in the standings. Their last five matches have brought 3 draws, 1 win and 1 defeat, while they have recorded 4 wins and just one defeat in their last 10 matches. The team have balanced figures: 1.6 goals scored and 1.4 conceded per game over the last 10 matches, compared with 1.7 scored and 1.45 conceded across the season. Away from home, San Jose Earthquakes often play pragmatically: the total has been under 3.5 goals in six of their last seven away matches, suggesting a cautious approach on the road.
Match Results: San Jose Earthquakes
Prediction for the 1st half
Minnesota have conceded in the first half in eight of their last nine home matches. The trend directly concerns an away goal before half-time, but the input data contain no first-half statistics for San Jose. Given this limitation, we pick San Jose Earthquakes First-Half Team Total Goals - Over 0.5 at odds of 2.12*.
Match Result Prediction
San Jose Earthquakes’ +1.5 handicap has won in 11 of the team’s last 12 matches. This season, San Jose have lost 4 of their 16 away matches, while Minnesota have won 4 of their 16 home matches. However, Minnesota have won five consecutive head-to-head matches - an argument against the bet, although for it to lose, the hosts would need to win by at least two goals. We pick San Jose Earthquakes - Handicap +1.5 at odds of 1.45*.
Total Goals Prediction
Total Goals - Over 2.5 has landed in nine consecutive Minnesota United home matches. Over their last ten home matches, Minnesota United have scored an average of 2.2 goals and conceded 2, while San Jose Earthquakes have averaged 1.63 goals away from home this season. However, six of San Jose Earthquakes’ last seven away matches have finished with fewer than 3.5 goals, tempering expectations of a higher-scoring game. We pick Total Goals - Over 2.5 at odds of 1.40*.
Corners Prediction
Total Corners - Over 10.5 has landed in seven of the teams’ last eight head-to-head matches. This is a direct argument in favour of the selected line, but there is no other data on the total number of corners. The prediction therefore relies primarily on head-to-head meetings: Total Corners - Over 10.5 at odds of 1.85*.
Both Teams to Score Prediction
Minnesota have scored and conceded in 15 of their last 16 matches. In their last ten home matches, they have averaged 2.2 goals scored and 2 conceded, while San Jose have averaged 1.63 goals scored away from home this season. San Jose have also conceded an average of 1.75 goals in their recent away matches. These figures support the Both Teams to Score - Yes bet at odds of 1.41*.
Safer Bet
Minnesota United have conceded in 15 of their last 16 matches. They have conceded an average of 2 goals in their last ten home matches, while San Jose Earthquakes have scored an average of 1.63 goals away from home this season. One goal from the visitors is enough for this bet: we pick San Jose Earthquakes Team Total Goals - Over 0.5 at odds of 1.29*.
Correct Score Prediction
According to the algorithm’s calculations, the top three scorelines are 1:1 (10.1%), 1:0 (9.81%) and 2:1 (8.52%). Of these, 1:1 is the most likely. The probabilities of the other two scorelines are 9.81% and 8.52%, respectively.
*The odds are indicative and may vary between bookmakers.*
⭐ Editor’s Prediction
Minnesota United take the field with maximum motivation: only a win will keep their play-off hopes alive, so they will look to make the most of their attacking potential. San Jose Earthquakes are in a better position, but they need points too. A defeat could knock them out of the top three. Given both sides’ high motivation, our pick is Both Teams to Score - Yes.
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Betting Tips: Minnesota United - San Jose Earthquakes
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