Spartak Moscow vs CSKA Prediction
🔊 The all-Russian derby between Spartak and CSKA is set to take place in the final of the Regions Path of the Russian Cup. For both clubs, this upcoming match represents a chance to end a somewhat disappointing season on a high note. Yes, each team still harbors ambitions for medals in the Russian Premier League, but for the "Army Men," these are more mathematical than realistic. Moreover, the "Red-Blues" announced on Monday that they have parted ways with head coach Fabio Celestini. Will these changes in management bring success or further destabilize the team? Our editorial team will address these and other questions in our prediction.
Head-to-Head
📊 Over the last ten matches, Spartak hold a slight edge in victories with four, compared to CSKA's three. The teams have settled for a draw on three occasions. In half of these encounters, both sides found the net, and the total goals exceeded 2.5.
H2H Stats Matches and Previous Teams Results
Spartak Moscow Team Overview
Juan Carlos Carcedo’s Spartak dropped into the lower bracket of the Russian Cup after losing in the semi-finals of the RPL Path to Moscow's Dynamo over two legs (2-5; 1-0). The single-match playoff format of the Regions Path has brought more success to the "Red-Whites": in the previous round, they claimed a historic victory over Zenit (0-0 in regular time; 7-6 on penalties) - their first away win since May 6, 2012.
In the latest match of the 28th RPL round, Spartak unexpectedly fell to Krylia Sovetov away. The 2-1 scoreline in favor of the hosts didn't quite reflect the dynamics on the field. The "Red-Whites" dominated possession (73% to 27%) and attacked the opponent's goal more than four times as often (17 shots to 4). Nevertheless, with such a modest number of attacks, Krylia managed to accumulate 1.14 xG, while the Moscow side squandered their chances, generating only 1.4 xG.
Match Results: Spartak Moscow
CSKA Moscow Team Overview
CSKA, much like Spartak, found themselves in the lower bracket of the Russian Cup after being knocked out in the semi-finals of the RPL Path. Following a 3-1 home victory over Krasnodar, the "Army Men" seemed to have a good chance of advancing further, but they were handed a heavy defeat (4-0) in the return leg. In the Regions Path, the Moscow side had little trouble dispatching Krylia Sovetov away with a 5-2 win.
The triumph over the Samara team was the last before CSKA embarked on a five-match winless streak in the league, during which they picked up just three points, all from draws. Their most recent home game against Zenit also ended in disappointment. The visitors dominated possession (57% to 43%) and attacked more frequently and effectively (16 shots with 2.09 xG compared to 11 shots with 1.2 xG), ultimately securing a well-deserved 3-1 victory. This defeat sealed the fate of head coach Fabio Celestini, as the Swiss specialist left the club on Monday.
Match Results: CSKA Moscow
Latest news
Spartak Moscow
❌ Spartak have recently faced minimal squad issues due to injuries. The only player still sidelined is Srdjan Babic, who tore his ACL back in October of last year. According to recent statements from the head coach, the Serbian's return this season is highly unlikely.
CSKA Moscow
❌ CSKA are facing setbacks not only on the coaching front. Key player Igor Akinfeev is out for the rest of the season. Brazilian defender Moises missed the match against Zenit. The recovery of Matvey Lukin and Kirill Glebov is taking longer than expected, although it was previously reported that Glebov should be back in time for the cup.
🟨 Prediction on Yellow Cards
It's worth noting that in the playoff path of the Regions Cup, the outcome is decided by a single match even at the final stage, promising an intense showdown. Adding to the tension, the Russian Cup is the only chance for both teams to secure a title this season, although CSKA can boast last year's Super Cup. The derby status adds extra spice to the mix. Interestingly, in their last four head-to-head encounters, the teams have collectively received at least four yellow cards. We expect a similar scenario on Wednesday: total yellow cards over 3.5.
⚽️ Prediction on Goals
Both teams have struggled with scoring lately. CSKA haven't scored more than one goal in their last five matches, while Spartak have managed it in only 2 out of 6. The stakes are too high in this match to recklessly charge forward, as there won't be a return leg like in the upper bracket of the tournament. We anticipate a game plan similar to Spartak's clash with Zenit in the previous round, where regular time ended goalless. Under these circumstances, a bet on total goals under 2.5 with odds of 1.95* seems likely.
🚩 Prediction on Corners
Continuing with the potential dynamics of the match, it's plausible that the main battle will unfold in midfield. Both teams possess enough creativity to push the ball forward, but when clubs of equal quality face off, the outcome may hinge on who controls the central circle. In such a scenario, the ball rarely reaches the corner flags. Notably, in 11 out of their last 12 meetings, the number of corners did not exceed nine. With this in mind, we suggest taking total corners under 9.5 at odds of 1.98*.
*Odds are approximate and may vary across different bookmakers.
Editorial Prediction
Let's once again emphasize the significance of the upcoming match for both teams involved. To summarize, the key point is that the Russian Cup represents the last opportunity for at least one of these sides to secure a title this season. This club currently appears in slightly better form, with fewer injuries and, conversely, more motivation.
CSKA, thanks to last year's Russian Super Cup, won't end the season without silverware. Additionally, the "Army Men" have just lost their head coach two days before the game. All signs point to a Spartak victory. However, like most previous derbies, we expect this clash between the Moscow clubs to be intense, with no significant margin over the hosts anticipated. The predicted score is 1-0.
Betting Tips: Spartak Moscow - CSKA Moscow
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Comparison of Teams Stats
Other predictions
