Cruzeiro vs Chapecoense Prediction 5 August 2026
🔊 The second leg of the Copa do Brasil Round of 16 between Cruzeiro and Chapecoense takes place at Mineirão in Belo Horizonte. The first match at Arena Condá ended goalless, so a place in the quarter-finals is still up for grabs. Cruzeiro now have the advantage - the decisive game is at home, in front of their own fans. For Chapecoense, things are harder. They did what they needed to in the first leg - held a higher-profile opponent at home. But now Chape have to go away, where Cruzeiro are a much more comfortable side.
Head-to-Head
The last official match between the sides took place on 02 August 2026 and ended 0-0. Here's the key stats from that game (home side - Chapecoense):
- possession: 37% vs 63%;
- corners: 6 vs 7;
- fouls: 11 vs 7;
- yellow cards: 0 vs 0;
- shots on target: 2 vs 1.
📊 Statistical preview from official meetings between Cruzeiro and Chapecoense:
- 23 matches played;
- home wins - 10, away wins - 6, draws - 7;
- goals scored - 30 vs 20;
- average first-half total - 0.91, second-half - 1.26;
- average total goals per match - 2.17.
Head-to-head statistics Cruzeiro - Chapecoense
Cruzeiro Team Overview
Cruzeiro travelled to Arena Conda as favourites but couldn't turn their dominance into anything on the scoreboard. They had the ball far more - 63% to 37% - yet the match stayed tight, with few genuinely dangerous moments on either side. The xG gap was narrow too: 0.65 for Cruzeiro, 0.30 for Chapecoense. Both teams had 13 shots, though the hosts edged it in shots on target, 2-1. Cruzeiro were more active from corners - 7 to 6.
Now the dynamic shifts. At Mineirão, Cruzeiro have to take charge and find a way through. Arthur Jorge's side have the better squad and are considerably more aggressive at home. The priority is to break Chapecoense down early - a drawn-out game suits the visitors. And there's a reason the foxes have scored at least once in 10 of their last 11 home matches.
That said, the goalless draw in the first leg exposed Cruzeiro's main problem: finishing. Despite controlling territory, they never really created enough clear-cut danger, so attacking efficiency will be the key factor in the return leg.
Match Results: Cruzeiro
Chapecoense Team Overview
Chapecoense kept a clean sheet in the first leg, but the result leaves them with no real comfort going into the return fixture in Belo Horizonte. That said, Rafael Lacerda's side handled the stronger opposition well and gave Cruzeiro almost nothing to work with.
The second leg is a different problem entirely. At the Mineirão, Chapecoense can't just sit back - they'll need to find something going forward. The issue is that Cruzeiro at home tend to crank up the pressure and keep opponents pinned without the ball for long stretches. If the visitors are forced to open up, the hosts will have space to exploit on the counter. And the numbers don't help: Chapecoense conceded in 9 of their last 10 away matches and went without a win in 16 of their previous 18 on the road.
Still, the first leg showed they can disrupt a favourite's attacking game. If they stay compact and keep it level deep into the match, there's a chance they catch Cruzeiro in a rare mistake - or push it to penalties. Though it's worth remembering they already visited the Mineirão this season in Série A and lost 1-2.
Match Results: Chapecoense
Total Prediction
Head-to-head matches (average total):
- home side - 1.3, away side - 0.87;
- in head-to-head matches - 2.17;
- both teams scored: all time - 10 times; at the home team's ground - 5 times.
- Cruzeiro have scored at home in 10 of their last 11 matches.
- Chapecoense have conceded away in 9 of their last 10 matches.
Corners Prediction
Cruzeiro: Stats
- season: average total in the tournament - 8; at home - 14;
- last 10 matches: average total - 6.5; at home - 8.6.
Chapecoense: Stats
- season: average total in the tournament - 5.33; away - 5;
- last 10 matches: average total - 4.8; away - 3.17.
Both Teams To Score Prediction
Head-to-head:
- matches played - 23;
- both teams scored - 10 times overall;
- at the home team's ground - 5 times.
Correct Score Prediction
Most common results this season:
- most frequent score in the tournament: 1:1 (21/134, 15.7%);
- Cruzeiro at home most often finish matches: 1:0 (1/1, 100%);
- Chapecoense away most often play: 1:0 (1/1, 100%).
Based on statistics and probability distribution, the algorithm predicts the top 3 outcomes:
1:0 - 24.35% (odds 3)
0:0 - 20.16% (odds 2.88)
2:0 - 13.9% (odds 5)
⭐ Editor's Pick
The first leg showed that Cruzeiro are the better side in terms of possession and squad quality, but they've been struggling to convert their chances. Chapecoense defended well, kept the hosts' attacking threat in check and kept the tie alive heading into the second match.
At the Mineirão, the script should look very different. Cruzeiro will have the crowd behind them and will need to take the game to the opposition, while Chapecoense will have to take far more risks than they did in the first leg.
Expect Cruzeiro to dominate possession and create the bulk of the chances - though the visitors have already shown they can hold up under pressure. The pick here is total goals under 2.5. Predicted score: 2-0 to Cruzeiro.
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Betting Tips: Cruzeiro - Chapecoense
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