Leganes vs Real Madrid Prediction 5 February 2025

🔊 Can the "Pepineros" sensationally end the "Galacticos'" journey in the Copa del Rey? One of the highlights of the tournament's quarter-finals is the clash between Leganes and Real Madrid at the "Municipal Stadium Butarque". Carlo Ancelotti's team is eager to reach the semi-finals of the Copa del Rey, demonstrating that last year's exit at the round of 16 was nothing but a fluke. The huge class gap explains the bookmakers' eloquent predictions: Leganes win - 7.5, Real victory - 1.4.

📊 H2H

This season, the teams had to face each other in the elite Spanish division. In the November meeting, the "Merengues" left no chance for the "Pepineros" at the "Municipal Stadium Butarque" (3:0). Interestingly, Leganes' last victory over Real (1:0) was recorded in the Copa del Rey - in the 2018/19 season.

🔵 LEGANES

Leganes is rightly considered one of the most unexciting Spanish teams this season. Borja Jimenez uses a defensive 5-4-1 formation. Situationally, it can transform into a 4-4-2, but the nature of their play doesn't change much. The "Pepineros" employ four distinctly defined midfielders. When controlling the ball and transitioning from defense, the team from the Madrid suburbs often uses a diamond formation in the midfield. The only nominal forward in Jimenez's scheme is Miguel De La Fuente. He is the first choice for this position due to his ability to play in support and effectively contest aerial balls. From match to match, Leganes' primary goal is to close all free spaces and maintain compactness during defensive phases. On their way to the Copa del Rey quarter-finals, the "Pepineros" overcame Ciudad de Lucena (2:1), Estepona (3:2), Cartagena (2:1), and Almeria (3:2). Enric Franquesa remains in the team's infirmary.

⚪ REAL MADRID

Unexpectedly for everyone, the "Merengues" suffered a defeat in the 22nd round of La Liga - against Espanyol (0:1). Besides failing to strengthen their leadership in the standings, Antonio Rudiger joined the club's injury list. Sometimes it seems that Carlo Ancelotti's ability to fit all stars on the field backfires on the team. Vinicius Junior and Kylian Mbappe still do not exhibit high mutual understanding or an ability to complement each other. At the same time, control over the midfield remains high. Credit goes to Federico Valverde and Jude Bellingham, who are reliable links between defense and attack. In this Copa del Rey campaign, the "Galacticos" have already knocked out Deportivo Minera (5:0) and Celta (5:2 AET). Besides Rudiger, Eder Militao, Dani Carvajal, and Eduardo Camavinga are still recovering from injuries.

⚽️ GOAL PREDICTION

It should be noted that in 8 out of the last 10 head-to-head matches between the teams, at least three goals were scored. Interestingly, in 7 out of 9 previous encounters between Leganes and Real, the latter managed to score at least twice. The average scoring rate for the "Merengues" this season is 2.4 goals per game. It seems more than justified to choose the following bet option - individual total for Real over 2 goals.

🚩 CORNER PREDICTION

The "Merengues" often lack the final shot to capitalize on sharp moments. The flanking activity from the capital club is more than sufficient - about 6.2 corner kicks per game. At the same time, the "Pepineros" are regularly forced into deep defensive positions, leading to inevitable corners - approximately 6.3 per match. Let's finally look at this component in head-to-head confrontations: 4.6 against 2.9 in favor of the "Galacticos". Our choice - Real victory on corners with a handicap (-1.5).

📝 MATCH PREDICTION

There should be no doubt that the "Merengues" will come out charged for victory. This is facilitated by a frustrating defeat in a recent La Liga round and an early exit from last year's Copa del Rey. Finally, note that in 15 head-to-head matches, Leganes has only upset the "Galacticos" twice. In our editorial's opinion, the odds set by bookmakers are entirely justified. Prediction for the final score - 0:3. Key choice - Real victory with a handicap (-1).