Flamengo vs Gremio Prediction, H2H Stats & Statistical Bets 4 November 2026
🔊 Flamengo and Gremio head into this match with different objectives but equally high stakes. Flamengo are top of the table and determined to stay there despite pressure from the chasing pack. Gremio are close to the relegation zone and fighting to stay in the league. With both sides highly motivated, expect a fiercely contested match.
A clash with a clear favourite
Flamengo beat Gremio 1-0 away from home in their Serie A meeting on 10 May 2026. After a goalless first half, a single goal settled the match, though the visitors’ dominance was far clearer in the shot count: 20-6.
In 46 competitive head-to-head meetings, Flamengo have won 21 times, Gremio 15, and 10 matches have ended in draws. Flamengo’s advantage is especially clear at home, where they have won 15 of 22 games and lost just three.
Head-to-head statistics Flamengo - Gremio
The team are maintaining their level.
In their last Serie A match on 29 October 2026, Flamengo beat Vasco da Gama 4-1 away from home. The shot count was almost even (14-15), but Flamengo scored four goals from just 1.62 expected goals (xG).
Flamengo have been in excellent form, winning six of their last 10 matches. They average 2.06 goals per game and concede just 0.85, putting them among the league’s strongest sides in both attack and defence. Their home matches tend to be low-scoring, with under 3.5 goals in 14 of their last 15. That may reflect a more cautious approach on their own ground.
Match Results: Flamengo
The team are looking for a way out of their slump.
Gremio beat Atlético Mineiro 2-0 at home in their last Copa do Brasil match on 1 November 2026, despite having just 24% possession to their opponents’ 76% and being outshot 20-6. Gremio also had a player sent off.
Gremio are in a difficult position, sitting just one point above the relegation zone. They have won three of their last ten matches but have also lost four. They average 1.12 goals scored and 1.33 conceded per game, highlighting defensive problems that could make it harder to stay in the league. Gremio’s last six matches have consistently produced high corner counts, suggesting an attacking approach.
Match Results: Gremio
Match Result Prediction
Gremio have covered the +1.5 handicap in 14 of their last 15 away matches. Flamengo have averaged two goals per home game this season, but that figure drops to 1.5 over their recent home matches. The hosts have won nine of their last 10, though, so there is still a risk that Gremio lose by more than one goal. Our pick is Gremio +1.5 at odds of 2.46*.
Total Goals Prediction
Fewer than 3.5 goals have been scored in 14 of Flamengo’s last 15 home matches. This season, Flamengo have averaged two goals scored and 0.75 conceded per home game, while Gremio have averaged 0.63 goals scored away. The case against the bet is that six of Flamengo’s last seven matches have produced over 2.5 goals, though that still leaves room for exactly three. We’re backing under 3.5 goals at odds of 1.82*.
Corners Prediction
There have been over 10.5 corners in six straight Gremio matches. Gremio have taken fewer than 6.5 corners in 12 of their last 14 games, but that does not rule out a high match total. Corner averages are unavailable for an additional check. Our pick is over 10.5 total corners at odds of 1.83*.
Both Teams to Score Prediction
Gremio have averaged 0.63 goals per away game this season, while Flamengo have conceded 0.75 per home game. Recently, though, Gremio’s away average has risen to 1 goal, while Flamengo have conceded 0.83 in their latest home matches. Those numbers make the outcome less clear-cut. Our pick is both teams to score: no at odds of 1.74*.
High-Risk Bet
In 14 of Flamengo’s last 15 home matches, there have been no more than 3.5 goals. This season, Flamengo have averaged 2 goals per home game, while Gremio have averaged 0.63 away from home. A lower line would be risky: 6 of Flamengo’s last 7 matches have featured over 2.5 goals, while exactly three goals would mean a push on the selected line. The pick is under 3 goals at odds of 2.33*.
*Odds are indicative and may vary between bookmakers.*
Safer Bet
Flamengo have won nine of their last 10 matches and have avoided defeat in 23 of their last 24. At home this season, they have recorded 12 wins and just one defeat, while Gremio have managed only one win and suffered 10 defeats away from home. Those numbers point to a home win, though they offer little indication of the scoreline. Our pick is Flamengo to win at odds of 1.17*.
Correct Score Prediction
The algorithm’s three most likely scorelines are 1-0 (14.73%), 2-0 (11.76%) and 2-1 (10.15%). A 1-0 win is the likeliest of the three. All three point to a Flamengo victory, but each is a separate outcome with its own probability.
⭐ Editor’s Prediction
Both teams have plenty to play for: Flamengo are chasing the title, while Gremio are fighting to stay in the league. Flamengo have been solid defensively and clinical in front of goal, while Gremio’s attacking approach has consistently produced corners. Given recent form and the teams’ statistics, over 10.5 corners looks a reasonable pick: Gremio’s last six matches have all cleared that line. The pick is over 10.5 corners.
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Betting Tips: Flamengo - Gremio
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