Arsenal Tula vs Lokomotiv Prediction 5 March 2026
🔊 Can the sole remaining FNL team in the Russian Cup, Arsenal, challenge Lokomotiv? In the previous playoff round of the Regions Path, the Tula side already defeated Rubin, a mid-table Premier League team. But can they overcome the third-ranked team of the top division? We'll assess their chances in our editorial prediction.
Head-to-Head
📊 From 2014 to 2022, Arsenal Tula participated in seven Premier League seasons. During this period, the Tula club faced Lokomotiv Moscow 13 times, emerging victorious in four of those head-to-head encounters. The teams drew once, leaving Lokomotiv with eight wins to their name.
Head-to-head statistics Arsenal Tula - Lokomotiv
Arsenal Tula Team Overview
For four consecutive seasons in the FNL, Arsenal have only once managed to reach the playoff zone. However, their 4th place finish in 2024 didn't bring success to the "red and yellows". Currently, they find themselves mid-table in Russia's second-tier division, having resumed after the winter break with a draw against KAMAZ (1-1). Interestingly, Arsenal lead the FNL in draws, having accumulated as many as 11 stalemates.
Dmitry Gunko's team showcased their ability to hold onto a scoreline in the first round of the Path of Regions playoffs against Rubin. The regular time ended in a goalless draw. Between them, the teams managed just eight shots on target, and the "Gunners" even outperformed their more esteemed opponents in possession (54% to 46%). Thus, the penalty shootout result seemed fair, with Arsenal emerging victorious 3-2.
Match Results: Arsenal Tula
Lokomotiv Moscow Team Overview
Mikhail Galaktionov's Lokomotiv are in contention for the RPL title for the first time in nearly four seasons under his management. They wrapped up the first half of the championship in third place, just three points adrift of the leaders. In their first match after the winter break, the "Railroaders" secured an impressive victory over Pari NN (2-1). While their opponents were second from the bottom of the league, the win was notable as the Moscow side played with ten men from the 44th minute and still managed to net a winning goal in the second half.
Lokomotiv dropped into the Play-off Path after suffering two defeats against Moscow rivals Spartak (1-3; 2-3). In both encounters, the "Red-Greens" struggled to outplay their opponents, losing out in possession and shot count. At the RZD Arena, despite the 2-3 scoreline, Spartak's dominance was even more pronounced.
Match Results: Lokomotiv Moscow
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Arsenal Tula
🎙 Arsenal's head coach reflected on the draw with KAMAZ. "It was a mirror match, just like our home game in the first round. Both times we conceded late. We had a tough start, KAMAZ had the upper hand in the first half, including in terms of goal-scoring opportunities. We managed to score from a set piece, but we knew that after the break we'd have space and chances. If we had scored a second goal, the game would have been over. We couldn't hold on," said Dmitry Gunko.
❌ Arsenal's first match after the winter break went smoothly. The team approaches the upcoming fixture with a full-strength squad.
Lokomotiv Moscow
🎙 Football agent Timur Gurtskaya recently commented on Lokomotiv winger Sergei Pinyaev's form: "I have a lot of admiration for Pinyaev and have been following his career since he was 14 or 15. However, his appearances as a substitute and the fact that he's no longer winning sprint duels are concerning signs. I understand why he's not starting. There were moments three years ago when Pinyaev would have just knocked the ball ahead and sprinted past. Now, Rudenko is outcompeting him."
❌ Like Arsenal, Lokomotiv are preparing for the upcoming match with a full-strength squad. The winter training camps and the 19th round of the RPL have left the "Railroaders" unscathed by injuries.
⚽️ Goal Prediction
Arsenal have a knack for holding onto leads, as evidenced by their number of draws in the FNL and their performance in the first round of the Regional Path playoffs. However, the level of opposition they face now will be significantly tougher compared to their previous match against Rubin. Lokomotiv are the highest-scoring team in the RPL with 41 goals over 19 rounds (an average of 2.16 per game). Moreover, the "Red-Greens" have shown they can score even when down a man. With these stats in mind, we suggest betting on Lokomotiv's total goals over 2.
🚩 Corner Prediction
Tula Arsenal excel at set pieces. Despite their position in the FNL standings, the "Gunners" rank in the top 2 for average corners (5.9). Their style of play may be slow and methodical, but it's precisely what led them to success against Rubin. Most of their threats at the opponent's goal come from set-piece situations. So, we're backing the underdog and recommend taking Arsenal's total corners over 3.5.
Editorial Prediction
There's no doubt that given their current standing in the FNL, Dmitry Gunko and his squad will focus heavily on the cup competition. However, the draw hasn't been kind to them, as they now face Lokomotiv, who are genuine title contenders in the RPL, having proven their mettle in the last round with a victory despite being a man down. Moreover, Loko are currently the most prolific team in Russia, so there's little doubt about their confident win, even on the road. Our prediction: Lokomotiv handicap (-1.5). Expected scoreline - 3-0.
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Betting Tips: Arsenal Tula - Lokomotiv Moscow
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