Belarus vs San Marino Prediction 3 October 2026
🔊 Neither Belarus nor San Marino have scored a goal in the new Nations League campaign so far. Belarus did pick up a point in Helsinki and sit third, while San Marino are bottom of Group C1 with nothing to show. The opponent is the group's last-placed side, and for Belarus this is a chance to score their first goal of the tournament and claim their first win. The matchday 3 fixture takes place on 3 October in Budapest at the Rudolf Illovszky Stadium - home ground for Belarus in name only.
🔁 We regularly update this prediction. Keep an eye on the Latest News section.
Head-to-Head
📊 The two sides have met twice - in 2018, in the first edition of the Nations League, when both were in League D. At home, Belarus thrashed San Marino 5-0, with Dmitri Dragun scoring twice. In the return fixture, Belarus again kept a clean sheet, won the group and were promoted to League C.
Head-to-head statistics Belarus - San Marino
Belarus Team Overview
Under Viktor Goncharenko, the Belarus national team went through four friendly matches without a defeat - three wins and a draw. Their competitive campaign got off to a harder start. In Tirana they lost to Albania, conceding twice before half-time following their own mistakes, then took a point in Helsinki. That point leaves them third in the group.
In Helsinki, Trofim Melnichenko hit the crossbar, the goalkeeper saved the next attempt, and only at the third time of asking did Aleksandr Selyava put the ball in the net - only for VAR to find offside and rule out the midfielder's first international goal. After the match, Goncharenko acknowledged that his side are still lacking in front of goal.
Match Results: Belarus
San Marino Team Overview
San Marino are playing in League C for the first time, having earned promotion in the previous edition by beating Liechtenstein twice and finishing top of their League D group. They have lost 16 of their last 17 matches, and in the new division Finland and Albania have scored ten goals between them against San Marino.
Roberto Cevoli's squad is drawn mainly from players in the local San Marino championship and the lower tiers of Italian football. Ten players in his squad play for Tropical Coriano of Serie D, and the club has had to postpone two league fixtures because of the Nations League. The new format requires San Marino to play four matches in ten days for the first time, and the Budapest game is already their third of those four.
Match Results: San Marino
Latest news
Belarus
❓ Even before the first matchday, defenders Gleb Shevchenko and Vladislav Malkevich left the squad through injury. Anton Lukashov, Yegor Parkhomenko and Alexander Sviripa were called up in their place, and Lukashov has already made his debut in Helsinki. According to a British preview dated 1 October, Belarus have no new fitness concerns, and Goncharenko may keep the same squad.
San Marino
❓ Alessandro Golinucci has served his suspension and is available to Cevoli again. Giulio Maria Bugli, Pietro Marinucci, Nicolas Protti and Bartolomeo Riggioni will rejoin the squad after representing the under-21 side against Spain on 1 October.
Predicted Lineups
📋 Predicted starting XI for Belarus: Lapoukhov - Kalinin, Volkov, Gomanov, Pechenin - Lukashov, Selyava, Ebong, Shumansky - Barkovsky, Lisakovich.
📋 Predicted starting XI for San Marino: Colombo - Benvenuti, Cevoli, Rossi, Gicondi - Mularoni, L. Capicchioni, Golinucci, Pancotti - Nanni, G. Capicchioni.
⚽️ Goals prediction
San Marino have failed to score in 7 of their last 8 matches. Away from home in the Nations League, they have gone without a goal in 5 of their last 6 trips. Belarus have only conceded in this Nations League campaign against Albania, and they kept Finland - who hammered San Marino - to a clean sheet. We are not expecting San Marino to open their account in the tournament in Budapest. The bet is San Marino to Score: No.
🚩 Corners prediction
Belarus do not get to the corner flag very often: across their last ten official matches they have taken 35 corners, while their opponents have taken 67. San Marino have earned just 20 corners over the same period. Their opponents have taken 59 corners in those same ten matches, so even stronger sides have not been peppering the San Marino box with deliveries. We are not expecting many set pieces in Budapest. The bet is Total Corners - Under 9.5.
🟨 Yellow cards prediction
San Marino build from a defensive base, and the card count reflects that: 21 yellows in their last ten official matches compared to 11 for their opponents. Against Albania, even striker Nicola Nanni picked up a booking. They are forced to foul against Belarus too - opponents have collected 13 yellows over the same period. We expect San Marino to pick up at least two cards in Budapest as well. The bet is San Marino Team Total Yellow Cards - Over 1.5.
🚀 Player statistic bet
Vitaly Lisakovich was already putting the ball in the net in Helsinki - a long-range effort was only ruled out because Zakhar Volkov's pass had come from an offside position. The Tobol forward has seven international goals to his name, and in the Kazakh league he has three goals and an assist in six matches. According to the Belarusian press, the national team coaching staff see him as a second striker operating from deep. The bet is Lisakovich to Score.
😱 Risky bet
An exact score of 2-0 carries a generous price and follows on from our main scenario. San Marino have lost ten matches in a row. They have gone into half-time behind seven times in a row. We expect Belarus to take the lead before the break and add to it after it. The risk is honest: correct score is the most unpredictable market, and a single stray goal is enough to sink the bet. The bet is Correct Score: 2-0.
🎯 Reliable bet
San Marino concede after half-time almost without fail: in 9 of their last 10 matches overall, and in 11 of their last 12 away from home. Even Albania, who were already two goals up at the break, added another in the second half. The odds are modest, but there is very little doubt here. The bet is Belarus to Score in the 2nd Half at 1.20*.
👀 If the match does not follow the script
The likely scenario is Belarus controlling the ball and winning by two goals, with San Marino failing to score. It breaks down in one situation: if Belarus score very early. That would force the visitors out of their defensive shape, and the scoreline could grow. The markets to watch would shift towards a third Belarus goal and a big Belarus win on the handicap. Keep those in mind for in-play if Belarus go ahead inside the first 20 minutes.
*Odds are indicative and may vary across different bookmakers.
📌 Editorial Prediction
Belarus have not scored more than two goals in a single Nations League match across their last 20 games in a row. San Marino have not lost by more than two goals in any of their last six away Nations League matches, even though all of them came in League D. We expect Belarus to take all three points, but not by a wide margin. In a match like this, San Marino should not lose by more than two goals. The bet is San Marino - Handicap +2.5. Predicted score: 2-0.
Will this prediction come true?
No comments
Betting Tips: Belarus - San Marino
in 11 of last 12 away games.in 9 of last 10 games.in last 7 games.in 17 of last 18 away games.in last 10 games.in 23 of last 24 away games.in last 10 games.Comparison of Teams Stats
Other predictions
