Atletico PR vs Vitoria Prediction 4 August 2026
🔊 The first leg of the Copa do Brasil Round of 16 between Atletico Paranaense and Vitoria takes place at Arena da Baixada. The hosts go in as favourites - home advantage and a higher level of play work in their favour - but Vitoria will want to keep things open ahead of the second leg. First legs in cup ties tend to be cautious affairs, so don't expect either side to open up.
Head-to-Head
The last official match between the two sides took place on 26 April 2026 and ended 3-1. Here's the comparative stats from that game (Atletico Paranaense were the home side):
- possession: 61% vs 39%;
- corners: 4 vs 4;
- fouls: 16 vs 15;
- yellow cards: 5 vs 4;
- shots on target: 11 vs 2.
📊 Statistical preview from official meetings between Atletico Paranaense and Vitoria:
- 26 matches played;
- home wins - 12, away wins - 12, draws - 2;
- goals - 46 vs 41;
- average first-half total - 1.58, second-half - 1.77;
- average match total - 3.35.
Head-to-head statistics Atletico PR - Vitoria
Atletico Paranaense Team Overview
The team's last official match was played on in the Série A (Corinthians at home, Athletico Paranaense away). It finished 0-0.
Match stats (Athletico Paranaense vs Corinthians):
- possession: 48% vs 52%;
- corners: 2 vs 6;
- fouls: 16 vs 16;
- yellow cards: 4 vs 3;
- shots on target: 1 vs 4.
Odair Hellmann's side are having a strong season and remain in contention for a high finish in both Série A and the Copa do Brasil. In the previous round, Athletico Paranaense got through against Atlético Goianiense from Série B, though not without drama - both legs ended 0-0, and it took a penalty shootout win (4-1) to send the Furacão into the Round of 16.
In the league, the newcomers keep showing organised, defensively solid football: six matches without a defeat - four wins and two draws - which puts them third after 21 rounds. At home they're even harder to beat. Ten straight matches without a loss at Arena da Baixada - seven wins and three draws - and in six of those last ten home games they kept a clean sheet.
Match Results: Atletico Paranaense
Vitoria Team Overview
The visitors' last official match took place in the Série A (Vitória at home, Palmeiras away). The match ended 0-4.
Match stats (Vitória vs Palmeiras):
- possession: 32% vs 68%;
- corners: 6 vs 1;
- fouls: 10 vs 15;
- yellow cards: 3 vs 2;
- shots on target: 3 vs 5.
In the previous round, Vitoria beat Fortaleza from Série B, winning both legs 2-1. Since then, Jair Ventura's side have played four Série A matches: a win over Vasco da Gama (1-0), a draw with Botafogo (0-0), then back-to-back defeats to Remo (0-2) and Palmeiras (0-4).
One thing stands out across those matches - only one team scored in every single one of them, and in three cases it was Vitoria who failed to get on the board. Atletico Paranaense are a particularly uncomfortable opponent for the Salvador club: the Leões da Barra have lost six of their last seven meetings. Vitoria will need to be sharp from the first whistle - in nine of their last ten head-to-head matches, they conceded before half-time. Keeping the hosts out will be a tall order anyway, given that Vitoria have conceded in 17 of their last 18 away games.
Match Results: Vitoria
Prediction for the 1st half
Head-to-head:
- matches played - 26;
- first-half wins for the home side - 5; for the away side - 3; draws - 6;
- average first-half total: 1.58;
- today's hosts average 0.77 goals in the first half, the away side - 0.81.
Last 10 matches (overall):
- wins: 2 vs 1;
- losses: 2 vs 5;
- draws: 6 vs 4;
- average first-half total: 0.8 (scored - 0.4, conceded - 0.4) vs 1.3 (scored - 0.4, conceded - 0.9).
- Atletico Paranaense have scored in the first half in 9 of their last 10 head-to-head meetings.
- Atletico Paranaense have scored in the first half in 6 consecutive home head-to-head matches.
Total Goals Prediction
Head-to-head matches (average total):
- home team - 1.77, away team - 1.58;
- overall average in head-to-head meetings - 3.35;
- both teams scored: overall - 17 times; at the current home team's stadium - 8 times.
- Total under 3.5 goals has landed in 14 of Athletico Paranaense's last 15 matches.
Corner Prediction
Athletico Paranaense: Statistics
- season average: 3 corners per match; at home - 5;
- last 10 matches: average - 4.8; at home - 5.8.
Vitória: Statistics
- season average: 1 corner per match; away - 1;
- last 10 matches: average - 4.5; away - 5.2.
- Athletico Paranaense has taken fewer than 6.5 corners in 6 of the last 7 head-to-head meetings with Vitória.
Both Teams To Score Prediction
Head-to-head:
- matches played - 26;
- both teams scored across all meetings - 17 times;
- at the home team's ground - 8 times.
Correct Score Prediction
Most common results this season:
- most frequent score in the tournament: 1:1 (20/129, 15.5%);
- Atletico Paranaense at home most often finish matches: 0:0 (1/1, 100%);
- Vitoria away most often play: 2:1 (1/1, 100%).
Based on statistics and probability distribution, the algorithm predicts the top 3 outcomes:
1:0 - 18.74% (odds 5.5)
0:0 - 13.4% (odds 8.5)
2:0 - 11.27% (odds 6.5)
⭐ Editor's Prediction
Atletico Paranaense look like the stronger, more balanced side, and home advantage adds to their chances. Vitoria will almost certainly set up to be pragmatic - keep it tight, avoid a heavy defeat ahead of the second leg. A home win with a low scoreline makes the most sense. The main prediction: Atletico Paranaense win. Predicted score - 2:0.
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Betting Tips: Atletico Paranaense - Vitoria
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