Leeds vs Burnley Prediction 1 May 2026
🔊 Elland Road is set to host a match that promises to kick off the 35th round of the Premier League with a bang. Leeds United have yet to secure their place in the Premier League and will be fiercely battling for three points. Visiting them will be Burnley, whose play is no longer about survival but rather about salvaging some pride before their likely return to the Championship. However, therein lies the main danger: teams free from pressure sometimes play with the desperation of the doomed, and this is where the Peacocks might unexpectedly run into trouble.
Head-to-Head
📊 When considering only Premier League encounters, the statistics highlight a dominant advantage for the hosts. Leeds have claimed victory in 4 out of their last 5 head-to-head matches in the top flight. However, in the first round of the current season, the Peacocks fell to Burnley (0-2), despite having a significant edge in play (19-4 in shots). If we also take into account their clashes in last season's Championship, we see a clear dominance by the Clarets - two wins, one draw, and not a single goal conceded.
Head-to-head statistics Leeds - Burnley
Leeds United Team Overview
The "Peacocks" head into the match sitting 15th with 40 points, enjoying a six-point cushion over 18th-placed Tottenham. A win against Burnley would virtually secure their Premier League status, as no team has ever been relegated with 43 points in the league's 20-match format. Daniel Farke's protégés boast an impressive five-game unbeaten streak, thanks in part to Sean Longstaff's dramatic 97th-minute equalizer against Bournemouth (2-2). It's their best run of form this season.
However, disappointment struck Leeds last weekend. In the FA Cup semi-final, the "Whites" fell short against a struggling Chelsea (0-1). The decisive moment came with Enzo Fernandez's goal in the 23rd minute. Farke's side fought hard to level the score, taking 10 shots and creating two significant chances, but luck was not on their side that evening. With their trophy dreams dashed, the "Peacocks" now focus solely on securing their Premier League survival.
Match Results: Leeds United
Burnley Team Overview
Burnley sit 19th with 20 points and have officially been relegated to the Championship following a home defeat to Manchester City (0-1) in the last round. The Clarets were fortunate to concede only one goal, considering the 29 shots directed at Martin Dubravka's net. Scott Parker's side have managed just one win in their last 25 matches-a catastrophic record that leaves no doubt about the inevitability of their relegation.
In their last four fixtures, Burnley have suffered four consecutive defeats with an aggregate score of 2-10. Their attack is the weakest in the league, having scored only 22 goals, while their average shots per game (9.1) and shots on target (3) are also the lowest in the Premier League this season. If there's a silver lining, it's that Parker's men have found the net in four of their last five away games, even managing to snatch a point at Stamford Bridge (1-1).
Match Results: Burnley
Latest news
Leeds United
The squad situation is gradually improving. Anton Stach, who was expected to return from an ankle injury only by early May, made an early comeback, playing 45 minutes in the FA Cup semi-final. However, Farke mentioned that the German is currently fit for just one half. Ilia Gruev is out for the season with a meniscus tear, but the Bulgarian has recently fallen out of the starting lineup. Serious concerns surround Gabriel Gudmundsson's condition, as he injured his hamstring in the match against Chelsea and might miss the upcoming game. If the Icelander is unavailable, James Justin will step in on the left flank of defense, with Joe Rodon taking a central role.
Burnley
Hannibal Mejbri's participation in the upcoming match is in doubt as he continues to recover from a hamstring injury, while Zeki Amdouni has missed the entire season due to an ACL tear. Both are close to making the squad. The other absences are more familiar: Josh Cullen has been out since December with an ACL injury, Connor Roberts has not played this season due to an Achilles injury, and Jordan Beyer has been sidelined since October 2023 with a series of meniscus and hamstring injuries.
🟨 Yellow Card Prediction
The match will be officiated by Thomas Bramall, one of the strictest referees this season. In the current campaign, he's shown 100 yellow cards and one red card over 25 matches, averaging 4 yellows per game. In his last ten Premier League matches, this average rises to 4.6. In the previous head-to-head between Leeds and Burnley earlier this season, only three cautions were noted, but those were different teams back then. Now, with one team already relegated and the other desperately needing points, the Clarets are likely to be aggressive in their tackles to slow down the Peacocks' attacks. Total over 1.5 yellow cards for the visitors seems a reasonable bet.
⚽ Goal Prediction
Leeds have scored more than one goal against Burnley only once in their last six encounters at Elland Road. However, should we really focus on outdated statistics? What matters now is that the Peacocks are in great form, while the Clarets have lost their last four matches and boast the league's worst defense with 68 goals conceded. Meanwhile, Daniel Farke's side has kept clean sheets in their last three home games, suggesting a relatively comfortable scenario for the hosts. With this in mind, Leeds' individual total over 1.5 goals at odds of 1.51* appears to be a promising wager.
🚩 Corner Prediction
At home, Leeds average 5.53 corners per match, while Burnley earn a modest 3.76 on the road - ranking fifth from the bottom in the league. In their first-round clash at Turf Moor, both teams combined for just six corners, with five credited to the Peacocks. Thus, Leeds to win corners with a -2.5 handicap at odds of 1.73* seems like an intriguing bet. At home and with their current motivation levels, Farke's side should be even more active in this aspect.
🚀 Player Stats Bet
Zian Flemming is the only consistent scorer in this disappointing season for Burnley. The Dutchman has netted nine goals and is on the verge of becoming the third player in club history to reach double digits in a Premier League season. He scored his last two goals away from home, so if anyone is likely to find the net against Leeds, it's probably him. The odds for a Zian Flemming goal stand at 3.50*.
😱 Risky Bet
For a risky bet, you don't need to overthink it - go for Burnley to win with a draw no bet at odds of 5.65*. Yes, they lack tournament motivation, but the Clarets will still want to end their Premier League season with a bang, so they won't take it lightly. Plus, head-to-head statistics are also a factor. Since 2022, the Peacocks haven't managed to beat or even score against Scott Parker's team.
🎯 Reliable Bet
In the last two head-to-head meetings between these teams, only six corners were recorded each time, indicating low wing-play intensity in this matchup. Expecting a high corner count seems unlikely, so one of the first reliable bets that comes to mind is total under 11.5 corners at odds of 1.35*. This is backed by a solid trend - it has hit in five consecutive home matches for Leeds.
👀 If the Match Doesn't Go as Planned
If Leeds underperform in the first half due to underestimating their opponent - it's an unlikely but possible scenario. As past encounters show, if Burnley scores first, it's tough for the Peacocks to come back. Therefore, if the visitors score early, Daniel Farke's side might struggle again to break down a low defensive block. In such a case, consider placing an in-play bet on total under 2.5 goals, which has occurred in 4 of the last 5 meetings between these teams.
*Odds are approximate and may vary across different bookmakers.
Editor's Prediction
Leeds return to Elland Road after a cup disappointment, looking to secure their Premier League status. Burnley seem resigned to the Championship, although Scott Parker’s side can occasionally pull off an upset. However, this doesn't seem like one of those instances. The squad situation favors the hosts, and the motivation from the league standings is significant. We expect the "Peacocks" to break down the visitors' low block multiple times with the support of their home crowd. Our predicted score is 2-1, with the main bet being Leeds' individual total over 1.5 goals. The hosts have achieved this in four of their last five matches.
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Betting Tips: Leeds United - Burnley
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