New Zealand vs South Africa Prediction

    New Zealand
    New Zealand
    South Africa
    South Africa
    10
    43
    10
    0
    7
    36

    On September 13, New Zealand will host South Africa as part of the Rugby Championship at Sky Stadium. Can the hosts uphold their fortress status at Eden Park in Wellington, or will the Springboks break their dominance? Read our prediction for insights.

    Head-to-Head

    The teams have faced each other 31 times. There has been one draw and just nine victories for South Africa.

    H2H Stats Matches and Previous Teams Results

    66%
    21 Wins
    3%
    1 Draw
    31%
    10 Wins
    13.09.25
    The Rugby Championship
    New Zealand
    New Zealand
    South Africa
    South Africa
    10
    43
    10
    7
    0
    36
    06.09.25
    The Rugby Championship
    New Zealand
    New Zealand
    South Africa
    South Africa
    24
    17
    14
    3
    10
    14
    07.09.24
    The Rugby Championship
    South Africa
    South Africa
    New Zealand
    New Zealand
    18
    12
    3
    9
    15
    3
    31.08.24
    The Rugby Championship
    South Africa
    South Africa
    New Zealand
    New Zealand
    31
    27
    11
    12
    20
    15
    28.10.23
    World Cup
    New Zealand
    New Zealand
    South Africa
    South Africa
    11
    12
    6
    12
    5
    0
    Empty
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    New Zealand Team Overview

    Scott Robertson is giving a chance to several young and fast players-midfielder Noah Hotham returns to the starting lineup after an injury, Leroy Carter makes his debut on the left flank, and Will Jordan and Damian McKenzie are adjusted in the backline. Additionally, Ardie Savea is set to mark his 100th test in the upcoming matches. Robertson's tactical approach focuses on speed, versatility, and tight control of set-pieces; however, injuries necessitate some restructuring. New Zealand are at the top of the table and remain favorites with their home advantage.

    Match Results: New Zealand

    22.11.25
    Int. Friendly Games
    Wales
    Wales
    New Zealand
    New Zealand
    26
    52
    14
    24
    12
    28
    W
    15.11.25
    Int. Friendly Games
    England
    England
    New Zealand
    New Zealand
    33
    19
    11
    12
    22
    7
    L
    08.11.25
    Int. Friendly Games
    Scotland
    Scotland
    New Zealand
    New Zealand
    17
    25
    0
    17
    17
    8
    W
    01.11.25
    Int. Friendly Games
    Ireland
    Ireland
    New Zealand
    New Zealand
    13
    26
    10
    7
    3
    19
    W
    04.10.25
    The Rugby Championship
    Australia
    Australia
    New Zealand
    New Zealand
    14
    28
    9
    17
    5
    11
    W
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    South Africa Team Overview

    Rassie Erasmus makes adjustments following setbacks, introducing young talents into the attacking line in an effort to restore the balance between physicality and speed. Despite criticism after recent losses, the coach remains confident in the team's rotation and motivation: South Africa still boasts a formidable pack, strong set-pieces, and a knack for stepping up in high-stakes matches. Their track record of success in Wellington (a win and a draw in recent visits) fuels hope for a competitive fight.

    Match Results: South Africa

    29.11.25
    Int. Friendly Games
    Wales
    Wales
    South Africa
    South Africa
    0
    73
    0
    28
    0
    45
    W
    22.11.25
    Int. Friendly Games
    Ireland
    Ireland
    South Africa
    South Africa
    13
    24
    7
    19
    6
    5
    W
    15.11.25
    Int. Friendly Games
    Italy
    Italy
    South Africa
    South Africa
    14
    32
    3
    10
    11
    22
    W
    08.11.25
    Int. Friendly Games
    France
    France
    South Africa
    South Africa
    17
    32
    14
    13
    3
    19
    W
    01.11.25
    Int. Friendly Games
    South Africa
    South Africa
    Japan
    Japan
    61
    7
    26
    0
    35
    7
    W
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    Editorial Prediction

    We anticipate a tough, tactically rich match ahead. New Zealand have the home advantage, quick backline, and the freshness of young players; South Africa counters with experience, power in the pack, and the ability to change their game plan through set-pieces and depth off the bench. The first 20-40 minutes will be played at high intensity - key factors will be set-piece execution and discipline (penalties), as well as who makes better use of substitutions in the final 20 minutes. Considering the home side's form, their squad decisions, and the Wellington factor, we give a slight edge to the All Blacks, but expect a tight scoreline and a tense finish. Our bet - total match points over 48.5.

    Our choice
    Total points Over (48.5) at odds of -118*
    Everygame
    Bet
    *The odds are relevant for the time of publication (11 September 2025, 12:31)

    Betting Tips: New Zealand - South Africa

    New Zealand have won
    new-zealand-4in 9 of last 10 home games.
    new-zealand-4in 6 of last 7 games.
    New Zealand Win
    -200
    New Zealand scored under 25.5 points
    new-zealand-4south-africa-3in 6 of last 7 home games against South Africa.
    New Zealand Total points Under (25.5)
    -103
    Under 48.5 points
    new-zealand-4south-africa-3in 6 of last 7 New Zealand home games against South Africa.
    Total points Under (48.5)
    -112
    South Africa scored under 20.5 points
    new-zealand-4south-africa-3in 6 of last 7 away games against New Zealand.
    South Africa Total points Under (20.5)
    -
    View more facts

    New Zealand - South Africa Table position

    The Rugby Championship 2025
    gWLPForm
    1.
    South Africa
    South Africa
    64219
    2.
    New Zealand
    New Zealand
    64218
    3.
    Australia
    Australia
    62411
    4.
    Argentina
    Argentina
    6249