Washington vs Dallas Prediction 4 November 2026
🔊 The Washington Capitals are gradually emerging from a rough stretch, but their latest game showed their problems have not gone away. After three straight wins, the Capitals fell to Minnesota, despite trailing by just one goal with three minutes left. The Dallas Stars had also suffered two painful defeats before ending their skid against Columbus. Now they head to Washington, where they won last season. The Capitals have reason to seek revenge: the Stars have won the last three head-to-head meetings, including both games last season.
Dallas Stars’ defence gave their opponents no chance.
📊 Last season, the Washington Capitals lost twice to the Dallas Stars, scoring just once across 120 minutes. The teams first met in Texas, where Tyler Seguin’s goal proved the difference. Jake Oettinger stopped all 24 shots he faced to earn a shutout. In January, the Stars visited Washington and won again, this time 4-1. Roope Hintz, Radek Faksa, Wyatt Johnston and Sam Steel scored for Dallas, while Alex Ovechkin got the Capitals’ lone goal. Dallas won both games in regulation by a combined score of 5-1.
Head-to-head statistics Washington - Dallas
Ovechkin is still short of goals.
Washington Capitals have won five of their last seven games and are steadily closing in on a playoff spot. Both defeats in that stretch, however, came against Western Conference opponents. Alexander Ovechkin’s scoring has also been a concern for fans: the NHL’s all-time leading goal scorer has just one goal this season. Still, Spencer Carbery’s team have learned to win without goals from their captain. Their immediate task is to regain confidence after the loss to Minnesota, and they will have to do so without the injured Rasmus Sandin and Vincent Desharnais.
The game against the Wild got off to a nightmare start for Washington. The visitors were 2-0 up by the sixth minute after capitalising on mistakes as Washington tried to break out of their own zone. The hosts gradually took control and pulled a goal back late in the second period when Justin Sourdif tipped the puck home. The contest remained in the balance until the closing minutes, but Minnesota scored three more in the final period-two on the power play and one into an empty net. The 5-1 scoreline suggests a rout, though Washington Capitals actually edged the Wild on expected goals, 3.6 to 3.3.
Match Results: Washington Capitals
The win did not mask all their problems
Dallas Stars have won six of their last eight games and remain in the hunt for a top-three spot in the Western Conference. Their two defeats in that stretch, though, were troubling: New Jersey scored five against them, and Montreal did the same. Those results sting for a team who have conceded fewer goals than anyone else in the league. Esa Lindell returned against Columbus after missing five games through injury, allowing Dallas to restore their usual defensive pairings. Matt Duchene, Gavin Beck and Kyle Capobianco remain sidelined, while Radek Faksa is questionable.
The Stars’ 3-1 win over Columbus was harder work than the scoreline suggests. Mikko Rantanen struck on the power play to give Dallas an early lead, and Thomas Harley doubled it just before the first intermission. The visitors then took control, outshooting Dallas 25-17 and generating more expected goals, 2.7 to 2.0. In the third period, Jake Oettinger kept the hosts in front, while a successful coach’s challenge wiped out a Columbus goal for offside. Arttu Hyry sealed the win with an empty-netter. Afterwards, Glen Gulutzan acknowledged that his team are still some way from their best.
Match Results: Dallas Stars
First-period prediction
Six of the Washington Capitals’ last seven games have featured more than 1.5 goals in the first period. At home, the Capitals average 1.22 goals scored and 1.44 conceded in the opening period. The Dallas Stars, however, concede just 0.4 first-period goals per away game, which gives some pause. Still, our pick is over 1.5 first-period goals at odds of 1.87.
Team Total Prediction
Dallas Stars have scored at least three goals in 15 of their last 17 away head-to-head meetings with Washington Capitals. Washington Capitals are conceding an average of 3.33 goals per home game, while Dallas Stars are scoring 2.6 per game on the road. Our pick is Dallas Stars over 2.5 team goals at odds of 1.67.
⭐️ Editor’s Prediction
Washington Capitals have been winning more often, but they have struggled against Western Conference teams. Dallas Stars have had their problems too: even in their most recent win, they had to rely on Oettinger. The head-to-head record, though, favours the visitors. Washington Capitals have failed to beat Dallas Stars in regulation in eight of their last nine meetings, including six of the last seven on home ice. Given those numbers and the Capitals’ recent struggles against Western opponents, there is little reason to make the hosts clear favourites. My pick: Dallas Stars to avoid defeat in regulation (X2).
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Betting Tips: Washington Capitals - Dallas Stars
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