Mercury vs Dream Prediction 23 August 2026
🏀 Phoenix Mercury host Atlanta Dream in a regular season WNBA clash. The home side sit near the bottom of the Western Conference standings but are still eyeing a move up the table after a tough stretch of games. Meanwhile, the visitors remain among the frontrunners in the East, pushing to secure the top spot - making every result crucial in their campaign. This matchup promises plenty of excitement and intensity, as the underdogs will be eager to throw a wrench in the plans of the favored Atlanta squad.
Head-to-Head
📊Statistical analysis of previous official games between the teams Phoenix Mercury (W) and Atlanta Dream (W):
- played 47 matches;
- wins (including extra time): 28 for today's home team and 19 for the guests;
- the home team averages 81.34 points per match, the guests - 81.13;
- average total match points - 162.47.
The last confrontation took place on 05 August 2026 at the venue of Atlanta Dream (W) and ended with a score of 96:82.
Head-to-head statistics Mercury - Dream
Phoenix Mercury (W) Team Overview
Phoenix are going through a rough patch, picking up just one win in their last five outings and claiming only five victories across their previous ten games - a clear sign of inconsistent form. Their latest fixture ended in another defeat, extending a difficult run without any real signs of improvement. This season, the hosts are averaging 84.5 points per game while conceding 87.1 - defensive lapses have been frequent, and their offensive output remains around league average. Over the last ten contests, their scoring has ticked up slightly to 85.5 points per game, but opponents continue to convert at a high rate, with Phoenix allowing an average of 87 points per night. The Mercury tend to play an up-tempo, open style, but persistent defensive issues have made it hard for them to control games against attack-minded teams.
Match Results: Phoenix Mercury (W)
Atlanta Dream (W) Team Overview
Atlanta are in excellent form, riding a four-game winning streak and claiming victory in seven of their last ten outings - a testament to the team’s consistency over the stretch. Their most recent matchup saw the visitors notch another win, extending a run of dominant performances fueled by an explosive offense. Dream are averaging 90.5 points per game this season while maintaining a relatively solid defense, conceding just 85.4 points per contest. Over their last ten games, Atlanta’s attack has been even more prolific, posting 96 points per game, though their defense has slipped slightly to 86.9 allowed. This balance makes the club one of the league’s most efficient sides in terms of pace and offensive productivity.
Match Results: Atlanta Dream (W)
Prediction for the 1st quarter
Head-to-Head Matches:
- Total encounters - 47;
- First quarter wins at home for the hosts - 14; for the visitors on the road - 8;
- Average total points in the first quarter: 40.79;
- Today's home team averages 20.49, while the visitors average 20.3.
First Quarter Stats: Phoenix Mercury (W) (home) vs Atlanta Dream (W) (away)
- Tournament matches played: 17 vs 19;
- Number of wins: 8 (47.06%) vs 6 (31.58%);
- Number of losses: 7 (41.18%) vs 10 (52.63%);
- Number of draws: 2 (11.76%) vs 3 (15.79%).
- Average points scored: 22.47 vs 19.37;
- Average points conceded: 22.29 vs 20.16.
Last 10 Matches (Overall):
- Number of wins: 5 vs 6;
- Number of losses: 4 vs 2;
- Number of draws: 1 vs 2;
- Average first quarter total: 42.9 (scored - 21.5, conceded - 21.4) vs 43.7 (scored - 24.4, conceded - 19.3).
- Under 43.5 points in the 1st quarter in 10 of last 11 Phoenix Mercury (W) home games against Atlanta Dream (W) (WNBA).
Prediction on the over/under
H2H:
- average total points per match for the home team - 81.34, for the away team - 81.13;
- average total points in H2H matches - 162.47.
Statistics: Phoenix Mercury (W) vs Atlanta Dream (W)
- average total in the tournament: 171.74 vs 176.03;
- average total points scored: 84.58 vs 90.58;
- average total points conceded: 87.16 vs 85.45;
- average total points scored in the 1st half: 42.95 vs 44.32;
- average total points scored in the 2nd half: 41.53 vs 46;
- Phoenix Mercury (W): average total points scored at home in the tournament - 85.59;
- Atlanta Dream (W): average total points scored away in the tournament - 88.63;
- last 10 matches (average total points scored): 85.5 (home - 85) vs 96 (away - 96.2).
- Atlanta Dream (W) have scored under 90.5 points in last 11 away games against Phoenix Mercury (W) (WNBA).
Prediction on the outcome
H2H:
- number of matchups - 47;
- number of wins for the home team - 28, for the away team - 19.
Statistics: Phoenix Mercury (W) vs Atlanta Dream (W)
- number of tournament matches played: 36 vs 36;
- number of wins: 15 (39.47%) vs 24 (63.16%);
- number of losses: 23 (60.53%) vs 14 (36.84%);
- number of wins at home for the home team: 6;
- number of away wins for the away team: 12.
Last 10 matches:
- number of wins: 5 vs 7;
- number of losses: 5 vs 3;
- number of home wins for the home team: 2;
- number of away wins for the away team: 4.
- Atlanta Dream (W) won with a -1.5 points handicap in last 5 games against Phoenix Mercury (W) (WNBA).
⭐ Editorial Prediction
Both teams favour an up-tempo style, but Atlanta are especially prolific right now - their four-game winning streak has seen them score at least 90 points in nearly every outing. Phoenix’s recent struggles, particularly on defense where they’re conceding over 87 points per game, should give the visitors even more opportunities and set the stage for a high-scoring shootout with plenty of fast breaks and efficient possessions. Our pick is over 173.5 total points - this line has been surpassed in eight of Atlanta’s last nine games on the road.
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Betting Tips: Phoenix Mercury (W) - Atlanta Dream (W)
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