Indiana Fever (W) vs Connecticut Sun (W) Prediction 23 July 2026
π Indianapolis is set to host a WNBA clash between the Indiana Fever and the Connecticut Sun, a matchup drawing attention due to the contrasting ambitions of both sides. The hosts are firmly in the playoff picture and continue to build momentum, fueling their motivation to cement their place among the leagueβs frontrunners. Meanwhile, the visitors find themselves anchored at the bottom of the Western Conference, with their focus shifting towards salvaging some pride and finishing the season on a positive note. Given these differing circumstances, this head-to-head promises added intrigue in terms of how the game will unfold.
Head-to-Head
πStatistical analysis of previous official games between the teams Indiana Fever (W) and Connecticut Sun (W):
- played 56 matches;
- wins (including extra time): 20 for today's home team and 36 for the guests;
- the home team averages 76.98 points per match, the guests - 80.75;
- average total match points - 157.73.
The last confrontation took place on 13 June 2026 at the venue of Connecticut Sun (W) and ended with a score of 75:85.
Head-to-head statistics Indiana Fever (W) - Connecticut Sun (W)
Indiana Fever (W) Team Overview
Indiana are riding a strong wave of momentum, having won seven of their last ten games and picking up four victories in their most recent five outings. Their latest clash against the New York Liberty also ended in a Fever win, further underlining their impressive form heading into this matchup. Offensively, Indiana remain consistently productive, averaging 94.7 points per game this season - a figure that climbs to 97.6 over the past few contests. Defensively, they have held opponents to around 88.7 points per game on the season, with that number only slightly higher at 89.6 across their last ten. The franchise thrives on a high-tempo style, quickly building leads and often making the most of their strengths, especially on home court.
Match Results: Indiana Fever (W)
Connecticut Sun (W) Team Overview
Connecticut are enduring a tough season, splitting their last ten games evenly with five wins and five losses. Their most recent outing ended in disappointment as they fell to the Phoenix Mercury, 62-73. The Sun have firmly settled at the bottom of the Western Conference standings, and a push for the playoff spots now seems out of reach. Offensively, they have struggled to put up big numbers, averaging just 79.3 points per game this season, though they've seen a slight uptick to 82.3 in recent matchups. On the defensive end, however, Connecticut remain solid, conceding just over 85 points per game overall and tightening up to 80.3 during their latest stretch. While they're positioned well outside the race for the top spots, Connecticut consistently manage to challenge the favorites thanks to their disciplined defense.
Match Results: Connecticut Sun (W)
Prediction for the 1st quarter
Head-to-Head Matches:
- Total encounters - 56;
- First quarter wins at home for the hosts - 9; for the visitors on the road - 16;
- Average total points in the first quarter: 39.32;
- Today's home team averages 18.3, while the visitors average 21.02.
First Quarter Stats: Indiana Fever (W) (home) vs Connecticut Sun (W) (away)
- Tournament matches played: 17 vs 13;
- Number of wins: 12 (70.59%) vs 7 (53.85%);
- Number of losses: 4 (23.53%) vs 5 (38.46%);
- Number of draws: 1 (5.88%) vs 1 (7.69%).
- Average points scored: 25.59 vs 22.23;
- Average points conceded: 21.41 vs 22.54.
Last 10 Matches (Overall):
- Number of wins: 6 vs 7;
- Number of losses: 4 vs 3;
- Number of draws: 0 vs 0;
- Average first quarter total: 48.6 (scored - 25.2, conceded - 23.4) vs 39.2 (scored - 20.8, conceded - 18.4).
- Indiana Fever (W) scored under 24.5 points in the 1st quarter in 13 of last 15 home games against Connecticut Sun (W) (WNBA).
Prediction on the outcome
H2H:
- number of matchups - 56;
- number of wins for the home team - 20, for the away team - 36.
Statistics: Indiana Fever (W) vs Connecticut Sun (W)
- number of tournament matches played: 26 vs 26;
- number of wins: 18 (62.07%) vs 8 (28.57%);
- number of losses: 11 (37.93%) vs 20 (71.43%);
- number of wins at home for the home team: 11;
- number of away wins for the away team: 4.
Last 10 matches:
- number of wins: 7 vs 5;
- number of losses: 3 vs 5;
- number of home wins for the home team: 4;
- number of away wins for the away team: 2.
- Connecticut Sun (W) won with a +10.5 points handicap in 24 of last 25 games against Indiana Fever (W) (WNBA).
Prediction on the over/under
H2H:
- average total points per match for the home team - 76.98, for the away team - 80.75;
- average total points in H2H matches - 157.73.
Statistics: Indiana Fever (W) vs Connecticut Sun (W)
- average total in the tournament: 183.55 vs 164.54;
- average total points scored: 94.79 vs 79.36;
- average total points conceded: 88.76 vs 85.18;
- average total points scored in the 1st half: 47.66 vs 40.61;
- average total points scored in the 2nd half: 46.14 vs 38.54;
- Indiana Fever (W): average total points scored at home in the tournament - 98.24;
- Connecticut Sun (W): average total points scored away in the tournament - 78.15;
- last 10 matches (average total points scored): 97.6 (home - 99.83) vs 82.3 (away - 83).
- Under 179.5 points scored in 10 of last 11 Connecticut Sun (W) away games (WNBA).
- Under 179.5 points scored in last 9 Connecticut Sun (W) games (WNBA).
β Editorβs Prediction
The game looks set to be dictated by Indiana, with the hosts in impressive form, pushing the tempo and consistently converting their chances at home. Connecticut, meanwhile, focus on defense and minimizing turnovers under their own basket, without a pronounced emphasis on scoring at the other end. In ten of the Sunβs last eleven road games, the total has finished under 179.5 points - this trend of low-scoring contests defines the outlook for the leagueβs underdogs. We expect the visitors to once again try to slow things down against Indianaβs aggressive offense, so a high-scoring shootout is unlikely, even with Indianaβs strong scoring record at home. Our pick: total under 181.5.
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