Los Angeles Sparks (W) vs Mercury Prediction 22 July 2026
π The Los Angeles Sparks host the Phoenix Mercury in a regular season WNBA matchup. Both teams sit near the bottom of the Western Conference standings and are eager to climb the table to avoid finishing among the leagueβs underachievers. For the Sparks, this is an opportunity to capitalize on home court advantage and snap their disappointing run, while the Mercury are looking to regain consistency after a challenging stretch.
Head-to-Head
πStatistical analysis of previous official games between the teams Los Angeles Sparks (W) and Phoenix Mercury (W):
- played 65 matches;
- wins (including extra time): 35 for today's home team and 30 for the guests;
- the home team averages 82.69 points per match, the guests - 80.25;
- average total match points - 162.94.
The last confrontation took place on 14 June 2026 at the venue of Phoenix Mercury (W) and ended with a score of 102:111.
Head-to-head statistics Los Angeles Sparks (W) - Mercury
Los Angeles Sparks (W) Team Overview
Los Angeles head into this game on a four-game losing streak, having managed just one win in their last five outings. Over their previous 10 matches, the Sparks have picked up only three victories while suffering seven defeats, a clear sign of inconsistent form and struggles to produce results against top-tier opposition. On the season, the Sparks average 88.4 points scored and concede 91.8 per game, but those numbers have worsened recently: over the last 10 games, theyβre scoring 89.7 points per contest while allowing a concerning 97.7. Los Angeles are giving up far too many points, highlighting defensive issues, particularly when facing teams with high-tempo offenses.
Match Results: Los Angeles Sparks (W)
Phoenix Mercury (W) Team Overview
Phoenix have struggled in their last five outings, suffering four defeats and picking up just one win, a rough patch with no clear signs of improvement. Over their previous ten games, theyβve managed only four victories against six losses. Offensively, the teamβs production has been modest, averaging just 83.5 points per game in recent contests, while their defense has held opponents to around 88 points per outing over that same stretch. Across the season, the Mercuryβs offensive efficiency remains slightly below par, posting an average of 83.8 points per game, while conceding approximately 86.3 on the defensive end.
Match Results: Phoenix Mercury (W)
Prediction for the 1st quarter
Head-to-Head Matches:
- Total encounters - 65;
- First quarter wins at home for the hosts - 18; for the visitors on the road - 11;
- Average total points in the first quarter: 40.95;
- Today's home team averages 21.03, while the visitors average 19.92.
First Quarter Stats: Los Angeles Sparks (W) (home) vs Phoenix Mercury (W) (away)
- Tournament matches played: 12 vs 14;
- Number of wins: 3 (25%) vs 7 (50%);
- Number of losses: 9 (75%) vs 7 (50%);
- Number of draws: 0 (0%) vs 0 (0%).
- Average points scored: 20.5 vs 20.64;
- Average points conceded: 23.42 vs 20.14.
Last 10 Matches (Overall):
- Number of wins: 2 vs 4;
- Number of losses: 8 vs 6;
- Number of draws: 0 vs 0;
- Average first quarter total: 44.7 (scored - 20, conceded - 24.7) vs 43.6 (scored - 21.3, conceded - 22.3).
- Under 45.5 points in the 1st quarter in last 9 Los Angeles Sparks (W) home games against Phoenix Mercury (W) (WNBA).
Prediction on the outcome
H2H:
- number of matchups - 65;
- number of wins for the home team - 35, for the away team - 30.
Statistics: Los Angeles Sparks (W) vs Phoenix Mercury (W)
- number of tournament matches played: 25 vs 27;
- number of wins: 12 (44.44%) vs 11 (37.93%);
- number of losses: 15 (55.56%) vs 18 (62.07%);
- number of wins at home for the home team: 5;
- number of away wins for the away team: 5.
Last 10 matches:
- number of wins: 3 vs 4;
- number of losses: 7 vs 6;
- number of home wins for the home team: 3;
- number of away wins for the away team: 2.
- Los Angeles Sparks (W) won with a +5.5 points handicap in 6 of last 7 games against Phoenix Mercury (W) (WNBA).
Prediction on the over/under
H2H:
- average total points per match for the home team - 82.69, for the away team - 80.25;
- average total points in H2H matches - 162.94.
Statistics: Los Angeles Sparks (W) vs Phoenix Mercury (W)
- average total in the tournament: 180.22 vs 170.21;
- average total points scored: 88.41 vs 83.83;
- average total points conceded: 91.81 vs 86.38;
- average total points scored in the 1st half: 42.11 vs 43;
- average total points scored in the 2nd half: 45.81 vs 40.69;
- Los Angeles Sparks (W): average total points scored at home in the tournament - 88.17;
- Phoenix Mercury (W): average total points scored away in the tournament - 81.14;
- last 10 matches (average total points scored): 89.7 (home - 92.5) vs 83.5 (away - 87).
- Under 181.5 points scored in 7 of last 8 Phoenix Mercury (W) games (WNBA).
β Editorial Prediction
The stats for both teams suggest a downward trend in scoring: Los Angeles often concede plenty of points on defense, while their own offensive output remains inconsistent. Phoenix, on the other hand, have shown a more modest attacking presence and tend to compensate with tight defense, even on the road. This pattern is backed up by the visitorsβ last eight games - the total has gone under 181.5 in seven of those matchups, highlighting a cautious approach regardless of the opposition. This clash is likely to be a gritty, low-scoring affair: neither side currently have the firepower for a prolonged shootout - both are focused on positional play or forced to rely on their defensive strengths to get results. Thatβs why it makes sense to back under 181.5 total points.
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Betting Tips: Los Angeles Sparks (W) - Phoenix Mercury (W)
in 6 of last 7 away games (WNBA).in last 5 home games (WNBA).in 13 of last 14 away games against Los Angeles Sparks (W) (WNBA).in 13 of last 15 Los Angeles Sparks (W) home games (WNBA).in 13 of last 14 Phoenix Mercury (W) away games (WNBA).
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