Japan vs Южная Корея Prediction 13 September 2026
🏀 In the final game of the Asian Games group stage, Japan face South Korea. Both teams have already secured their spots in the playoffs, but this high-stakes clash will determine who tops Group A. The South Koreans enter as clear favourites according to the bookmakers, yet Japan will have the home crowd firmly behind them in Nagoya. It promises to be a thrilling contest, and it will be fascinating to see which side comes out on top in this battle of heavyweights.
Head-to-Head
📊 In their last nine official head-to-head clashes, Japan have claimed four victories, while South Korea have come out on top five times. The most recent encounter took place on 16 August 2026 on Japanese soil, where the hosts cruised to a 95-66 win.
Head-to-head statistics Japan - Южная Корея
Japan Team Overview
Japan, despite hosting the Asian Games and fielding what is essentially a reserve squad led by the naturalized Kirk, have already claimed victories over both Indonesia and Saudi Arabia. Now, they are eager to prove their competitiveness against one of the tournament's top contenders. Even without their strongest lineup, Japan remain committed to their trademark up-tempo style, moving the ball quickly and attacking efficiently from beyond the arc - currently converting over 40% of their three-point attempts. The reserves are highly motivated to make a statement and secure their spots in the rotation once the team's primary stars return. However, against a powerful South Korea side, Japan’s chances look slim - the gap in quality between the teams is hard to ignore.
Match Results: Japan
Republic of Korea Team Overview
South Korea have been cruising through the Asian Games so far, fully living up to their billing as one of the tournament favourites. They opened with a win over Saudi Arabia before absolutely dismantling Indonesia, 102-48. The driving force behind their success has been Lee Hyun-jung, who is eagerly anticipating his rookie NBA season with the Portland Trail Blazers. The rest of the roster is also in excellent shape, with every position looking stronger than Japan’s lineup - fueling fans’ expectations for another dominant performance. Interestingly, the Koreans employ a similar up-tempo, attacking style to their current opponents, relying on quick ball movement and relentless pace. One of their standout weapons has been their outstanding three-point shooting, which has overwhelmed their rivals in the opening rounds.
Match Results: Republic of Korea
Prediction for the 1st quarter
Head-to-head meetings:
- Total encounters - 9;
- First quarter wins: home side (on their own court) - 3; away side (on the road) - 2;
- Average first quarter total: 37.67 points;
- Today’s hosts average 19.22 points in the opening quarter, while the visitors post 18.44.
Last 10 games (overall):
- Wins: 8 vs 6;
- Losses: 1 vs 3;
- Draws: 1 vs 1;
- Average first quarter total: 41.5 (scored - 25.5, conceded - 16) vs 38.3 (scored - 20, conceded - 18.3).
- Japan have scored over 17.5 points in the first quarter in 6 of their last 7 head-to-head clashes with this opponent.
- Japan have put up more than 17.5 points in the opening quarter at home in 11 of their last 12 games.
- Japan have surpassed the 17.5-point mark in the first quarter in 7 of their last 8 matches (Asian Games, men).
Prediction on the over/under
H2H:
- average total points per match for the home team - 77.67, for the away team - 78.11;
- average total points in H2H matches - 155.78.
Statistics: Japan vs Republic of Korea
- average total in the tournament: 158.5 vs 149;
- average total points scored: 92 vs 92;
- average total points conceded: 66.5 vs 57;
- average total points scored in the 1st half: 53 vs 40;
- average total points scored in the 2nd half: 39 vs 52;
- Japan: average total points scored at home in the tournament - 98;
- Republic of Korea: average total points scored away in the tournament - 0;
- last 10 matches (average total points scored): 93.3 (home - 96.4) vs 77.5 (away - 74.5).
- Republic of Korea have scored under 83.5 points in last 5 away games against Japan.
Prediction on the outcome
H2H:
- number of matchups - 9;
- number of wins for the home team - 4, for the away team - 5.
Statistics: Japan vs Republic of Korea
- number of tournament matches played: 2 vs 2;
- number of wins: 2 (100%) vs 2 (100%);
- number of losses: 0 (0%) vs 0 (0%);
- number of wins at home for the home team: 1;
- number of away wins for the away team: 0.
Last 10 matches:
- number of wins: 9 vs 4;
- number of losses: 1 vs 6;
- number of home wins for the home team: 5;
- number of away wins for the away team: 1.
- Japan won with a +6.5 points handicap in 6 of last 7 games against Republic of Korea.
- Japan won with a +6.5 points handicap in last 5 home games against Republic of Korea.
- Japan won with a +6.5 points handicap in last 10 games.
- Japan won with a +6.5 points handicap in last 5 home games.
⭐ Editor’s Prediction
Both national teams favour an attacking style, and with a playoff spot on the line - as well as the rivalry factor - expect them to play with even more freedom, which should translate into a high-scoring contest. On top of that, despite their strengths, South Korea’s coach Mazurs has yet to establish a reliable defence, and the lack of size in the paint often sees them lose the rebounding battle. Japan, meanwhile, may lack top-tier talent but make up for it with speed, technical ability, and the motivation to impress their home fans. We’re anticipating an offensive showcase and backing the over 158.5 total points.
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Betting Tips: Japan - Republic of Korea
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